Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

middlelayer.substack.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

121–125 of 125 posts

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#121

Post by GolfPopper »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #109
coldtea wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't think there's a human on this planet who can even predict the state of the industry in 3 years. I predict a 1999-dotcom-boom style crash of the AI hype within 3 years, slower incremental improvements, and increased rent seeking (ads, sponsored responses, etc.) and price jacking.

That crash was due to laying out too much capital in the form of fiber that wasn’t being used. The difference today is that every GPU added is immediately maxed out, and if it’s not it’s because the power plant for the area is maxed out.

And the GPUs are being maxed out because money seeking a high return is being thrown at LLMs in the hope that they turn into AGI, because there's no other market segment promising such high returns... and being believed.

I suspect the bubble is self-sustaining, because everyone making investment decisions is confident that they won't be blamed if (IMHO, when) the bubble collapses, because "everyone was investing in AI" while simultaneously, even those who might be skeptical are terrified of missing the boat if LLMs really do live up to their hype, or at least convinced they can ride the bubble and find a greater fool before it pops.

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#122

Post by GolfPopper »

gerad wrote: post #70
grim_io wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The iPhone opened up a whole new world of opportunities which were very clear from the start. No one, except Steve Ballmer, would describe it as a potential fad or question how good it can actually get before Apple goes bankrupt from all the investment into this new tech. I like this new stuff we get now, but the iPhone felt like a clear win with no downsides of a potential societal collapse.

Mobile phone addiction is our generation's smoking. We just don't realize it yet.

Mobile phones & social media, tobacco, opium, gin... it seems like every century or so there's an epidemic of "this readily available thing creates addictive stimulation" and a lot of people get lost to it until society wises up about that particular thing. And then a generation or three later, the pattern repeats.

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#123

Post by h3lp »

shazbotter wrote: post #56
throwup238 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s exciting, isn’t it? I’ve been programming for a quarter century now and this is the first time in 20 years that the future of tech is exciting again and the world is software’s oyster. Can’t wait for AI 2.0 and ads :(

Exciting is one word for it. The dot com crash was also "exciting", I suppose. I see it as a chance for the capital class to sell everyone shovels and build railroads that will further cement their power and influence, all the while insisting software and art are more democratic than ever. All the while using the same tools to build surveillance infrastructure that will make any dissent impossible. So yeah, exciting…

Well the railroads aren't the seat of power that they used to be---the progress ebbs and flows in mysterious ways. Even their arguable replacement, air travel, is not the paradigm of economic dominance.

Everybody is now excited about the top end: more parameters, larger context window. Justly so, but I think that it's more important in the long term what will happen at the low end, both in the software and hardware direction. Software obviously has started (c.f. DeepSeek). As for hardware, Google TPU ASIC is six years old, and has presumably 4096 ALUs and uses few watts of power to perform 4 TOPs. Several years later, I would hope that it's reachable goal for those 4 watts to do as many TOPs as say H20 (400 or so).

Once the models stabilize, I could see a low power inference peripheral design with huge TPU matrix with an embedded model parameter Flash EPROM feeding it. This could go into anything from white goods to computers. Imagine a thermometer that you speak symptoms to and ask for diagnosis; is it a good idea? I don't know... but is it possible? I could see that it is.

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#124

Post by shazbotter »

h3lp wrote: post #123
shazbotter wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exciting is one word for it. The dot com crash was also "exciting", I suppose. I see it as a chance for the capital class to sell everyone shovels and build railroads that will further cement their power and influence, all the while insisting software and art are more democratic than ever. All the while using the same tools to build surveillance infrastructure that will make any dissent impossible. So yeah, exciting…

Well the railroads aren't the seat of power that they used to be---the progress ebbs and flows in mysterious ways. Even their arguable replacement, air travel, is not the paradigm of economic dominance. Everybody is now excited about the top end: more parameters, larger context window. Justly so, but I think that it's more important in the long term what will happen at the low end, both in the software and hardware d…

> Well the railroads aren't the seat of power that they used to be

You don't think that Carnegies, Vanderbilts, Goulds, etc don't have outsized influence and wealth?

Re: Claude is the drug, Cursor is the dealer

#125

Post by jrs235 »

bazmattaz wrote: post #76
throwup238 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s exciting, isn’t it? I’ve been programming for a quarter century now and this is the first time in 20 years that the future of tech is exciting again and the world is software’s oyster. Can’t wait for AI 2.0 and ads :(

> and ads Ha this is so true. All the major LLMs have a surprisingly ad free experience right now. Likely because they’re all aggressively competing for customers. But as soon as one of them realises the money that can be made from ads and how that will pay for daily operation costs after the investors give up investing, then the game is up

Wait until their answers steer towards solutions/products via paid promotion... Ugh.
Post reply on HN