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Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

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Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#121

Post by natmaka »

adev_ wrote: post #75

Meaningwhile, today 17/11/2023 the same Portugal is back to the normal and emitting 170g CO2/kwh [1][2] - This is 6.8x the emissions of Sweden (25g) running on Nuclear and Hydro - This is 4.1x the emissions of France (41g) running on Nuclear, Hydro and Gas - This is 2.8x the emissions of Switzerland (59g) running on Nuclear and Hydro But still much better than "Green" Germany that reaches 647g CO2/kwh.... with 22GW o…

This is a work in progress, their transition isn't done yet.

Without nuclear no risks tied to a major accident, dependancy towards uranium providers, hot waste disposal, overcentralization, overcentralization, proliferation, daunting building and decommission projects... ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38288706 )

Not a bad deal.

Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#122

Post by _Algernon_ »

lispisok wrote: post #110
thelastgallon wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You got it backwards. Fossil fuels are subsidized, 7 trillion dollars per year: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-10-16/climat...

I knew somebody was going to regurgitate this. That's if you make up some number for fossil fuel externalities and count it as a subsidy. Pollution from fossil fuels is a very real and very big issue but it has been presented in such a way that people think governments are actually giving oil companies trillions of dollars in direct subsidies. No other business has had this kind of math applied to it. The fossil fuel…

Big [citation needed]

Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#123

Post by mrweasel »

As always, this is the electrical grid only, not all the other stuff a nation will need various type of energy for. Still it's a major stepping stone.

Back in 2006/2007 I had a job as a consultant for an energy trading company and it was huge the first day when the entire country ran solely on wind power. If was during the Christmas holidays, so less power was used overall, but still it was absolutely a huge deal for us. After that if has just been more and more days on renewable energy powering the majority of grid and more and more frequently 100% renewable.

I get the problem that it's only for a short time and then Portugal is back at emitting CO2, but it also does mean that they are moving in the right direction and it's only going to get better.

Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#124

Post by JumpCrisscross »

Maxion wrote: post #115
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #101

For most economies, assuming positive real interest rates, the choice is between natural gas and nuclear. Solar + wind will be the cheapest, and will make up the bulk of primary production. But they won’t replace coal, natural gas, oil and nukes—not in the near term, and certainly not if we’re tooling up for EVs. Portugal has gone gas. America will, too, in all likelihood. Both will be subsidised by countries without…

What you say is not true in most places. EV charging won't raise overall power consumption that much, and the majority of tthe EU will stop burning coal around the 2030's. Nuclear isn't much on the table in Europe, especially since new wind developments produce cheaper power than nuclear plants. Solar works quite well at lower latitudes, but at higher latitudes in Europe it can work as a supplement to hydro in the su…

> EV charging won't raise overall power consumption that much

It does create a better use for batteries. Both for raw materials and talent.

Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#125

Post by troupo »

natmaka wrote: post #121
adev_ wrote: post #75

Meaningwhile, today 17/11/2023 the same Portugal is back to the normal and emitting 170g CO2/kwh [1][2] - This is 6.8x the emissions of Sweden (25g) running on Nuclear and Hydro - This is 4.1x the emissions of France (41g) running on Nuclear, Hydro and Gas - This is 2.8x the emissions of Switzerland (59g) running on Nuclear and Hydro But still much better than "Green" Germany that reaches 647g CO2/kwh.... with 22GW o…

This is a work in progress, their transition isn't done yet. Without nuclear no risks tied to a major accident, dependancy towards uranium providers, hot waste disposal, overcentralization, overcentralization, proliferation, daunting building and decommission projects... ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38288706 ) Not a bad deal.

> This is a work in progress, their transition isn't done yet.

When will it be done? What really is the answer to the challenge?

Germany has ~140 GW of installed renewables when it needs about ~70GW of electricity.

Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#126

Post by KingOfCoders »

adrianN wrote: post #118
adev_ wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's easy to see that even we assume 50% curtailment rate, It is now 07h00 in Portugal. - Solar production is reduced to 0% because it is night time. Like it is 30% of the time. - Wind is not blowing much. Wind production is at 3.14% of its total capacity. To compensate that, 29% of the production is guarantee by Gas powerplant. The rest from Hydro. To compensate its high Hydro consumption, Portugal is also doing H…

You build something like 3x peak demand and produce hydrogen or ammonia while you have a surplus so that you can burn it while the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow or use it as feedstock for your industrial processes. Industrial scale hydrogen electrolyzers exist, we just need to build more of them once we have a steady electricity surplus that allows us to run them economically.

In 20y we'll have much more solar energy produced than we could use.

Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#127

Post by troupo »

adrianN wrote: post #118
adev_ wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's easy to see that even we assume 50% curtailment rate, It is now 07h00 in Portugal. - Solar production is reduced to 0% because it is night time. Like it is 30% of the time. - Wind is not blowing much. Wind production is at 3.14% of its total capacity. To compensate that, 29% of the production is guarantee by Gas powerplant. The rest from Hydro. To compensate its high Hydro consumption, Portugal is also doing H…

You build something like 3x peak demand and produce hydrogen or ammonia while you have a surplus so that you can burn it while the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow or use it as feedstock for your industrial processes. Industrial scale hydrogen electrolyzers exist, we just need to build more of them once we have a steady electricity surplus that allows us to run them economically.

"Just"

Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#128

Post by troupo »

adev_ wrote: post #80
adev_ wrote: post #75

Meaningwhile, today 17/11/2023 the same Portugal is back to the normal and emitting 170g CO2/kwh [1][2] - This is 6.8x the emissions of Sweden (25g) running on Nuclear and Hydro - This is 4.1x the emissions of France (41g) running on Nuclear, Hydro and Gas - This is 2.8x the emissions of Switzerland (59g) running on Nuclear and Hydro But still much better than "Green" Germany that reaches 647g CO2/kwh.... with 22GW o…

Would people that minus a post stating facts backed by sources deign to explain why ? I am aware that reality can be harsh to accept sometimes. And that a world where renewable are our only source of energy is more seducing to our collective imagination. But unfortunately, it is still the reality. And we have to deal with it, even if it is pretty unpleasant.

In a different discussion a few days ago someone told me I was lying when I pointed out that Germany is burning 20GW of coal to compensate for their 140GW of renewables working at only 15% capacity.

Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#129

Post by adev_ »

adrianN wrote: post #118
adev_ wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's easy to see that even we assume 50% curtailment rate, It is now 07h00 in Portugal. - Solar production is reduced to 0% because it is night time. Like it is 30% of the time. - Wind is not blowing much. Wind production is at 3.14% of its total capacity. To compensate that, 29% of the production is guarantee by Gas powerplant. The rest from Hydro. To compensate its high Hydro consumption, Portugal is also doing H…

You build something like 3x peak demand and produce hydrogen or ammonia while you have a surplus so that you can burn it while the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow or use it as feedstock for your industrial processes. Industrial scale hydrogen electrolyzers exist, we just need to build more of them once we have a steady electricity surplus that allows us to run them economically.

And that is what you qualify "easy" ?

Replacing 30% of a country grid capacity by an unproven technology never tested at scale. Associated with an hydrogen storage capacity (which we already struggle to do in labs and in the rocket industry) large enough to substain weeks of productions never also not tested at scale is easy ?

All of that should also be cost efficient right ?

And if I follow your initial post, it should be solved in the incoming years right ?

You see, that summarize quite a lot of my problems with the "all renewable evangelism".

Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#130

Post by troupo »

throwaway2037 wrote: post #88
snewman wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For renewables, most of the cost is up front, then they're cheap to run because they don't need fuel. (High capex, low opex.) Fossil fuel plants have more of a mix of upfront and operating costs. High interest rates make it expensive to borrow the upfront cost of renewables.

I did some googling about this issue. Roughly I searched: natural gas/solar/wind construction cost per MW in United States I found: Natural gas: ~1200 USD/kW, Solar: ~1500 USD/kW, Wind: ~1500 USD/kW Let us say that solar and wind is about 25% more expensive to build. All types have high up front costs, so interest rates will affect nearly equally. However, operations for solar and wind must be way cheaper over 10/20/…

> To be fair, I never read anything about maintenance costs for solar and wind.

Indeed. Those costs are never counted (e.g. how do you service and repair offshore wind farms in the middle of the North Sea). As the costs of decommissioning and replacements are never counted either. Neither are the costs of overprovisioning required for renewables.

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