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Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

telegraph.co.uk

121–130 of 191 posts

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there is a lot more controversy than you’re implying, even among serious scientists, but an HN comment thread is probably not the right place to litigate a complex issue that is also a partisan political football. I’ll leave it at this: I would encourage everyone to do their own research on this and try to look past the elephant in the room of the politics angle.

I find pretty often when people resolve conversations like this by saying 'do your own research', particularly when the research to be done requires any homework at all, it is shorthand for 'find a loud voice saying things that are compatible with the worldview you've decided on already'.

If "you do your own research" to confirm your own pre-existing ideas, then yes, you're going to get where you wanted to go.

I read "do your own research" differently. I think it can go two different directions.

In the positive direction, it can mean "Ignore all the loudmouths, all the liars, all the self-anointed experts. Even ignore me, the speaker. Find out who really knows what they're talking about, and listen to them." This assumes, though, that the listener can do that. Am I actually capable to discern truth from lies, or even real expertise from incompetence, in virology? Maybe, if I devote enough time to it. Do I have that kind of time for every topic on which someone tells me "do your own research"? Probably not. So what it really turns into is finding someone who at least sounds like they are doing their own research (and doing it well), and listening to them.

More negatively, I suspect that "do your own research" at least sometimes is a veiled way of saying "If you really knew, then you would agree with me" in a much less in-your-face way than just saying it. The person saying this may have done their research as you say, finding a loud voice that said what they wanted to hear, and now be totally convinced that they are right, and that if you did your research, you would wind up agreeing with them.

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#122

The outbreak in Uganda is troubling, but a forecast that goes out 6+ months is silly. No professional infectious disease modeler will forecast out more than a few weeks because the trajectory of the outbreak changes in response to interventions and behaviors.

That doesn't make sense. I'm no epidemiologist, but have friends who work in disease modeling, and used to follow some virology blogs/podcasts. They usually make lots of models, each with different assumptions, specifically to guess what the intervention of different public health measures would do.

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No layperson is qualified to understand any advanced technical field these days. Semiconductor fabrication is utterly out of reach for the typical voter, but they still have to form an opinion on the CHIPS act. Most of us aren’t lawyers, but still sometimes need to hire them. This is the dilemma inherent in not having a /u/PhdInEverything. But the answer isn’t “go away and let the grownups decide”, the answer is to t…

It sounds like you and the other person agree (edit: regarding the need to trust experts). You've just chosen to trust different sources of information than the other person. I agree with the other person though, there is a correlation between people I've heard say "do your own research" and people with less reasonable beliefs. (Hi, mom).

I’m aware that “do your own research” is a common phrase among people who want to believe that “9/11 was an inside job” or whatever (also Hi Mom).

I meant it in the more nuanced sense of trying to actually do research. A layperson who wants to be informed has to start somewhere, and when the stakes are as high as with global public health, I think it behooves the person in the street to try to at least read the abstracts of some papers, try to identify experts on both sides of a controversy, and be aware that credentials are no guarantee of reasonability.

Shockley played a big role in the transistor, IIRC got the Nobel, and later spent years advocating for racist eugenicist horseshit: credentials are a good guideline, but they can’t be blindly trusted.

I really wish the medical community just agreed about all this stuff: then my job would be easy, do what they say.

Unfortunately you seem to get one group of MD/PhD people saying those other MD/PhD people are cranks, we’re the “real” scientific consensus. This does not make it easy for the well-intentioned layperson.

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Side note, but is the moon landing hoax popular still? I got nostalgia when you mentioned it, boy howdy do I miss the x files days of conspiracy theories

6% of Americans (10% of millennial Americans) supposedly. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_landing_conspiracy_theori... Despite actual pictures taken recently...

You are claiming 6% is mainstream?

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#125
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That sounds... wrong? What if the 6+ month forecast assuming no interventions is useful to compel an intervention, and the 2-3 week one is not?

If “useful to compel” is a criteria, we can jump straight to flat-out lying and dispose with the statistics part.

We already did quite a bit of lying during the Covid pandemic.

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is parent getting downvoted? The lab leak theory is pretty mainstream these days. And gain of function research is 1: real 2: fucking insane and 3: a plausible way we would have a true captain trips style pandemic.

> The lab leak theory is pretty mainstream these days. Mainstream, and conceivably true, but lacking in evidence. Personally I find it rather implausible due to a lack of motivation for why the lab in question would be doing secret work on coronaviruses. > fucking insane I don't think this is a helpful way to have this debate. I don't know enough to have a strong opinion on this, but a majority of virologists seem to…

> but lacking in evidence

Thank you for saying this. We know xenophobic racist right wingers are saying that COVID came from China. But WHO-China investigation definitely proved that COVID came outside of China. Even western virologists have been supporting Chinese scientists. [1]

[1] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As with other actions, it's the relationship between the benefits that something brings versus the costs associated with doing it that determine whether or not it's "working". The costs associated with widespread everyday masking are severe. You even quoted the ones that I'd mentioned earlier. Just to overcome those severe costs, masking would have had to consistently bring astounding benefits. At a bare minimum, tha…

> The costs associated with widespread everyday masking are severe. You even quoted the ones that I'd mentioned earlier. Yes, and stated that they are, for the most part, not actually costs. Masks don't cause accessibility problems, they don't cause child development issues, they don't cause social strife when consistently warn and enforced, and they don't cause abusive policing (police don't enforce mask mandates an…

Josh, I recommend that you do even just some basic research into this topic. It's quite complex, and I can't do it justice here.

Masking certainly does cause accessibility problems for many people.

For example, people with mobility and other issues involving their fingers, hands, arms, shoulders, neck, and ears can find it quite difficult, or even impossible, to put on, to wear, or to remove a mask.

Masking can also aggravate respiratory and cardiovascular-related medical issues.

Masking can aggravate PTSD and other psychological issues.

Masking can cause problems for those with hearing-related issues, as it can make it difficult to hear the muffled voices of others, as well as making lip-reading impossible.

In jurisdictions where accessibility is considered important, the forced masking bylaws or legislation typically had accessibility-related exemptions, because masking does cause severe accessibility problems for many people.

The harmful social impacts of masking take many forms.

Among the most egregious were when exempt individuals were denied service, reasonable accommodation, and in some cases employment.

Such people also faced significant harassment when in public, even in so-called "tolerant" societies. Sometimes this would involve verbal abuse. Sometimes it would involve having creeps take and share photos of them, in attempts to socially shame them. Sometimes it would unfortunately involve physical abuse, even with the police being the perpetrators at times.

A less-visible aspect to this very real threat of harassment was how some people just stopped participating in society as much as possible, even at the cost of financial, psychological, and social harm to themselves.

Forced masking, especially in schools, has definitely had a negative impact on the education and development of children. This manifests in various ways, including communication-related delays and difficulties, trust/fear-related issues, immune system deficiencies, and so on.

Perhaps you were spared the worst of this based on where you happen to live, and luckily didn't have to experience the costs of masking yourself.

Others, however, suffered significantly because of masking, even if you may not realize it.

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is parent getting downvoted? The lab leak theory is pretty mainstream these days. And gain of function research is 1: real 2: fucking insane and 3: a plausible way we would have a true captain trips style pandemic.

>The lab leak theory is pretty mainstream these days. So is denying climate change or the moon landings...

Thank you for saying this. We know xenophobic racist right wingers are saying that COVID came from China. But WHO-China investigation definitely proved that COVID came outside of China. Even western virologists have been supporting Chinese scientists. [1]

[1] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#129
For anyone who may be working in the epidemic response space I read that there may be problems getting PPE for the health care workers.

There is a place that accepts products that are obsolete and reusable and they have a section dedicated to PPE since a lot of outfits obsoleted their PPE inventories once Covid was better controlled.

They also have a shit-ton or more of other things that can be repurposed from their original tasks.

Repurposed Materials - Sanitary stuff [0]

[0]https://www.repurposedmaterialsinc.com/sanitarystuff/

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've got a busy day so don't want to get into it again -- but I cannot express how incapable the average (even educated!) person is to "do their own research" on something as complex and nuanced as molecular engineering and the probabilities of covid genetic engineering. Even some expert 'pre-reviewers' that received the advance of the most recent bombshell paper that supposedly proved an unnatural virus with lab ori…

> I've got a busy day so don't want to get into it again -- but I cannot express how incapable the average (even educated!) person is to "do their own research" on something as complex and nuanced as molecular engineering and the probabilities of covid genetic engineering. I don't think you can claim to have consensus on this matter since Dr. Li-Meng Yan who worked at the lab and got the CCP scrub when she went publi…

Me: "Doing your own research on this is very difficult due to people with credentials selling their reputations to service political goals."

You: "What about this Chinese scientist who lied about their experience and had no actual evidence of anything but who was working with Steve Bannon and Guo Wengui and repeatedly platformed on Tucker Carlson?![1] Oh and a Senate Republicans minority committee just released a report that mistranslates standard Chinese party doctrine as menacing![2]"

Admitting that Covid19 was very likely a spillover of a natural virus doesn't mean that you trust China, that you think their labs are run well or are incapable of accidents, that they've been transparent or helpful with the investigations, or that the possibility of new evidence pointing to a lab origin is foreclosed -- just that the actual physical evidence we have today about this virus and this pandemic overwhelmingly points to a natural origin.

[1] - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/20/business/media/steve-bann...

[2] - https://twitter.com/janeqiuchina/status/1589098167051911169

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