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Apple Has Reportedly Rejected TSMC's Chip Price Hike of 6%

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Re: Apple Has Reportedly Rejected TSMC's Chip Price Hike of 6%

#121
post #6

I'd love to be a fly on the wall during these negotiations. Just to see what the heck they even talk about, what information each party comes armed with, and what kinds of concessions get offered. I mean it isn't just a "we'll lower this" I bet there's lots of juicy confidential future roadmap stuff, things like "Ok we'll help you invest in this _____ tech and machinery but you have to knock off half a cent" or who k…

There was a post on HN a few days ago showing the negotation emails between Jobs and NewsCorp/James Murdoch: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5752212

Just FYI, that post is 9 years old.

Re: Apple Has Reportedly Rejected TSMC's Chip Price Hike of 6%

#122
post #6

I'd love to be a fly on the wall during these negotiations. Just to see what the heck they even talk about, what information each party comes armed with, and what kinds of concessions get offered. I mean it isn't just a "we'll lower this" I bet there's lots of juicy confidential future roadmap stuff, things like "Ok we'll help you invest in this _____ tech and machinery but you have to knock off half a cent" or who k…

One thing I'm wondering about is which side leaked this news item, and what their goal was

I'd bet this is part of the negotiation, going by the way the article hammers on the risk to TSMC.

Re: Apple Has Reportedly Rejected TSMC's Chip Price Hike of 6%

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It appears they both equally need each other. If TMSC rejects Apple, what is Apple going to do? Use Intel chips in iPhones?

I'm half expecting Intel to start producing chips for others in the coming years. However I doubt that it's as simple as sending Intel the blueprints for the M3, there has to be some re-tooling on both ends I believe.

> I’m half expecting Intel to start producing chips for others in the coming years.

They announced they would do that in March 2021 (https://www.techpowerup.com/280085/intel-to-enter-third-part...) and have customers:

- QualComm and Amazon AWS: https://www.theverge.com/2021/7/26/22595002/intel-qualcomm-c...

- MediaTek (https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intels-foundry-services-la...)

Intel page: https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/foundry/intel-foundr...

Re: Apple Has Reportedly Rejected TSMC's Chip Price Hike of 6%

#124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It appears they both equally need each other. If TMSC rejects Apple, what is Apple going to do? Use Intel chips in iPhones?

Say "OK, for now!", and then drop some of its gigantic cash pile into helping another supplier that it part-owns become a real competitor

I don't think you can just drop a pile of cash and create a competitor to TSMC. Even some state actors can not achieve that. I think TSMC has leverage here, and it will have for long time to come.

Re: Apple Has Reportedly Rejected TSMC's Chip Price Hike of 6%

#125
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Apple is cutting back iPhone Pro production [1] No, iPhone Pro demand is very strong. The regular iPhone demand appears soft or didn't ramp up. None is this is a surprise since early adopters would likely be the same who buy the Pros.

I think the iPhone 14 Plus was a huge miss for them. Anyone who wants a bigger phone probably also wants the Pro. Wouldn't be surprised if there is no iPhone 15 Plus.

I think this is way premature. The non-Pro iPhone is for the people who don't watch Apple keynotes and don't wait for the Apple Store to open up for pre-orders. It's for my mom, who will buy a new iPhone when she breaks her old one.

Re: Apple Has Reportedly Rejected TSMC's Chip Price Hike of 6%

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was a post on HN a few days ago showing the negotation emails between Jobs and NewsCorp/James Murdoch: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5752212

Murdoch e-mails are nice in that they nicely highlight the multiple fronts nature of negotiating where you can often find compromise by shifting how you approach the problem. The way Jobs closes it is quite unusual however because in this case NewsCorp were late movers. Apple had already reached terms with all their competitors and could put on the table a take it or leave it offer which Murdoch couldn’t refuse. I wa…

Perhaps he didn’t want an enemy who could give him bad PR.

Re: Apple Has Reportedly Rejected TSMC's Chip Price Hike of 6%

#127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think it's possible apple builds a new fab (they have none) and immediately jumps to better than TSMC 5nm?

fabs take years to build. The only real option Apple would have is some kind of joint venture with Intel and maybe try to bring in the US Department of Defense or US government in general to push the whole chip national security talking point and get more funding

> The only real option Apple would have...

TSMC has a market cap of $356B and maybe $30B in cash. Apple has a market cap of $3.25T and over $200B in cash. Surely you are overlooking a possible option here, which is Apple acquiring TSMC. I don't see it as likely, but it is an option.

Re: Apple Has Reportedly Rejected TSMC's Chip Price Hike of 6%

#128

TSMC charging 6% more for the 3nm process seems reasonable. Article notes Apple accounts for 25% of their revenue and says this gives them leverage over TSMC but aren't they the only 3nm player in town?

That was my thought. Can't they just threaten to sell the space to someone else?

My guess would be AMD; they'd love to have server processors even farther ahead than what Intel is able to fab themselves and the large margins for server processors are able to absorb TSMC's asking price.

Re: Apple Has Reportedly Rejected TSMC's Chip Price Hike of 6%

#129
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you buy such a huge part of the available capacity then you are in the position to bargain like this, unlike "smaller" clients.

But TSMC can delay 3nm until it has the clients. Enough of the "smaller" players will eventually want and pay for it. Apple is far more dependent on TSMC than TSMC is on Apple. Where else is Apple going to go to realistically? It would likely take 3-5 years to fund another competitor to bring it up to what is needed.

> Enough of the "smaller" players will eventually want and pay for it.

At the right price, everybody wants it, but TSMC wants a high price now, to recoup their investment on the new process. If they drop their price now, that will take a long time, and may even be never, as, over time, competition will drive down margins.

Apple may be fairly unique in having a “right price” that is a lot higher than that of other players while they also are willing to order hundreds of millions units.

Re: Apple Has Reportedly Rejected TSMC's Chip Price Hike of 6%

#130
post #49
post #6

I'd love to be a fly on the wall during these negotiations. Just to see what the heck they even talk about, what information each party comes armed with, and what kinds of concessions get offered. I mean it isn't just a "we'll lower this" I bet there's lots of juicy confidential future roadmap stuff, things like "Ok we'll help you invest in this _____ tech and machinery but you have to knock off half a cent" or who k…

Since they are basically the only manufacturer, when Apple "rejects" the price hike, what options does Apple have?

Nothing immediately, but they have the cash on hand to fund competitors now that could replace them in say 10 years or so.
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