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Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

fortune.com

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Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#121

Post by melling »

mattbrewsbytes wrote: post #38

And Michael Burry has been predicting crashes every few years since the 2008 one. And Bill Ackman predicted 'hell is coming' at the onset of the pandemic and made $2B [0]. And there were US Senators that also did possibly illegal things to pull money out of the market before the public knew about the pandemic. Outside of disclosures filed with the SEC, stock trading is anonymous yet they will have all sorts of headli…

How about the Biggest Bear of them all.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/super-bubble-yet-burst-jeremy...

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#122

Post by lexapro »

taylodl wrote: post #101
coldcode wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read a lot of these type of predictions, often you see some people say it's a great time to buy, and others it's a bad time to buy, and generally you will only remember the people who guessed correctly, so none of this helps you today at all. Every time those people who got lucky will appear in some future ad or article making a new prediction, and generally fewer will be lucky twice. In the long run, everyone is l…

This is why the dollar cost averaging technique works so well. No, it's not likely to provide you a financial windfall, but it's also not likely to yield you financial devastation either. If you're investing for retirement then it generates quite a bit of wealth in the long term.

Yeah, but if you have a lump sum of money it's still better to invest everything at once if you plan to hold it for decades. Vanguard has a good paper on that titled "Dollar-cost averaging just means taking risk later". And as you get close to retirement, you need to be mindful about sequence of returns risk.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#124

Post by concinds »

2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote: post #14

"There’s a high probability in my mind that the market, at best, is going to be kind of flat for 10 years, sort of like this ’66 to ’82 time period" From another article on '66-'82: > The Dow went sideways, but the S&P actually earned a respectable 6.8% return in that time. 6.8% is hardly apocalyptic. The S&P 500 usually averages 10% over long timescales. His former hedge fund also delivered an annual average rate of…

10% per year, not 10%.

6% in 16 years is utterly pathetic.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#125

Post by selectodude »

impulser_ wrote: post #80
mattbrewsbytes wrote: post #38

And Michael Burry has been predicting crashes every few years since the 2008 one. And Bill Ackman predicted 'hell is coming' at the onset of the pandemic and made $2B [0]. And there were US Senators that also did possibly illegal things to pull money out of the market before the public knew about the pandemic. Outside of disclosures filed with the SEC, stock trading is anonymous yet they will have all sorts of headli…

There is a reason why they hedge funds underperform the market. Not by a little, by quite bit. They try too hard to predict the market, when in the long run if they just stayed long they would have done better.

The key word in hedge fund is hedge. They're not supposed to outperform the market. They're supposed to not fall as far as everything else during a crash as well.

Granted, that's not really how things work in practice anymore, but that's supposed to be the idea.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#126

Post by danielmarkbruce »

melling wrote: post #120
chiffre01 wrote: post #114

Looks like this guy's been making these kind of predictions for at least the last 10 years: https://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/04/druckenmiller-get-out-of-the... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4W58zLwdDzM https://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/03/stanley-druckenmiller-heres-... https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/busi...

This guy? One of the best traders in history. https://priceonomics.com/the-trade-of-the-century-when-georg... His streak was something like 25% or 30% over 30 years? The tide is definitely going out. The Fed created a huge bubble and everyone knew it. Fed Balance sheet at $9 trillion…

was.

He has been making a lot of similar predictions for a while.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#127

Post by bart_spoon »

iforgetti wrote: post #89
jrochkind1 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you figure? I was thinking the opposite: that the model of saving for retirement via investment accounts requires good returns in the early part of your career, so the smaller amounts of money you can afford to put away for your relatively smaller early career salary can compound over your career length to be enough for retirement.

What others wrote was pretty much my reasoning but a bit further, over the very long run (30+ years) markets will revert to mean performance. If you have strong gains in the first half of your career then when you are in your peak earning years, investments will be more expensive at time of purchase. As a result when you are investing the most, returns on that principle will be lower.

Isn't this just the gambler's fallacy? Yes, markets over a given period of time will likely conform to a particular distribution of performance, with some below-average periods and above-average periods that average out. But that does not mean that if there is an extended time period of terrible performance now, X years from there is likely to be a very strong rebound to compensate.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#128

Post by anm89 »

melling wrote: post #120
chiffre01 wrote: post #114

Looks like this guy's been making these kind of predictions for at least the last 10 years: https://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/04/druckenmiller-get-out-of-the... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4W58zLwdDzM https://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/03/stanley-druckenmiller-heres-... https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/busi...

This guy? One of the best traders in history. https://priceonomics.com/the-trade-of-the-century-when-georg... His streak was something like 25% or 30% over 30 years? The tide is definitely going out. The Fed created a huge bubble and everyone knew it. Fed Balance sheet at $9 trillion…

Yeah some clowns named Ray and Warren also keeps crying wolf about how the economy has issues too. These guys have no idea what they are talking about! I don't think they even trade.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#130

Post by nprateem »

anm89 wrote: post #128
melling wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This guy? One of the best traders in history. https://priceonomics.com/the-trade-of-the-century-when-georg... His streak was something like 25% or 30% over 30 years? The tide is definitely going out. The Fed created a huge bubble and everyone knew it. Fed Balance sheet at $9 trillion…

Yeah some clowns named Ray and Warren also keeps crying wolf about how the economy has issues too. These guys have no idea what they are talking about! I don't think they even trade.

Buffett has also been predicting the mother of all crashes since 2016. Lesson: never listen to experts unless you discover one with a time machine.

Like they say, more wealth has been lost trying to time the market than in crashes.

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