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Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

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Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#121

Post by dekhn »

q1w2 wrote: post #108
nugget wrote: post #76

My partners and I have a couple hundred employees in Dnipro, Ukraine. Most of the employees have relocated to Poland or western Ukraine, some are sheltering in place, some are fighting. We started to source supplies last week, especially for those who are sheltering in place or fighting. During discussions with various parties across the supply chain it became clear that an enormous effort was underway by hundreds/th…

They are also getting fresh soldiers. I saw a claim from a Canadian vet in Kyiv that 40,000 foreign fighters were already in Kyiv. The Canadian was part of a 500-man exclusively Canadian urban battalion. There was also a report on BBC that Russia had summoned foreign ambassadors in Moscow to complain about foreign volunteers traveling to Ukraine to fight against Russia [1]. I've also been on Telegram channels helping…

Eventually the question becomes "if these guest fighters are successful, at what point do they consider going north through the contested border and attacking Russian (or, more likely, Belurussian) cities?"

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#122

Post by paxys »

akomtu wrote: post #53

Putin is dumb or desperate (maybe trying to score a quick victory because of some more pressing matters). All he needed to do is to assemble a big enough chunk of his army at the borders, do some maneuvers from time to time, pepper it with threatening rhetoric to keep everyone stressed, but never attack. This "psychological siege" would tank the economy of Ukraine and he could demand progressively bigger concessions.…

What you described is exactly what Putin has been doing over the last decade, and the result was simply pushing Ukraine more towards the west and NATO, exactly the opposite of what he had intended.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#123

Post by Kranar »

mdoms wrote: post #89
rdtwo wrote: post #11

Do people put money on this because 4:1 odds are pretty good. If definition of fall is a mission accomplished type photo op I’d take those odds. If it’s prolonged stable holding then I probably would not

Literally the second sentence of the article. Is it that hard to read before commenting on an article? > This question will resolve positively if it is publicly reported by at least three reputable media sources or from direct statements from at least four Permanent UNSC members that the majority of Kyiv's raions are under Russian military control by April 1, 2022.

That doesn't help in anyway and in fact makes things even more ambiguous. On what basis would three "reputable" media sources report that the majority of Kyiv's regions are under Russian military control?

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#124

Post by selimthegrim »

imwillofficial wrote: post #71
bostonsre wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are some examples of "propaganda" that proved to be false a day later?

Ghost of Kiev Snake Island Soldiers Dying Heroically Nuclear Reactor Shelled, Radiation Rising

There is quite a bit of fear that SVR/FSB is going to fake a dirty bomb incident on UKR soil as a pretext for tactical nukes.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#125

Post by baq »

tada131 wrote: post #105
usaphp wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The insurgency in Iraq was also a minority- most supported the US Russians also think that most Ukrainians support Russia, it doesn't mean it's true. Same with believes that most Iraqis supported US.

Most Ukrainians are forced to support Russia because the way how Zelensky "defends" Ukraine by freeing prisoners and giving advice to fight with Molotov cocktails.

These people have experienced being part of ussr and really, really don’t want to go back. Source: am Eastern European

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#126

Post by tada131 »

InTheArena wrote: post #36

Armies have momentum. Germany almost lost in 1941 when Barbarossa failed. Hitler managed to keep his armies from disintegrating, but it was a near thing. Japan's armies went far further then they had any right too in the same period, because of the perception of invincibility, higher morale, and everyone underestimating them for racial reasons. It's very clear that the Russians badly screwed up their logistics chain…

From 0 day, I was shocked by Ukrainian elite twitter/facebook forces. They even continue fighting from Poland/Moldova, they never were affected by broken supply chains or blockades. I don't see any viable Kremlin alternative for this, so maybe with time they will take over and we will finally see democracy in Russia.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#127

Post by pmoriarty »

tada131 wrote: post #88
nugget wrote: post #76

My partners and I have a couple hundred employees in Dnipro, Ukraine. Most of the employees have relocated to Poland or western Ukraine, some are sheltering in place, some are fighting. We started to source supplies last week, especially for those who are sheltering in place or fighting. During discussions with various parties across the supply chain it became clear that an enormous effort was underway by hundreds/th…

What about food?

There is a great risk of massive starvation in besieged Ukranian cities, where it's too dangerous for sheltering civilians to venture out and procure or supply food.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#128

Post by jjulius »

q1w2 wrote: post #108
nugget wrote: post #76

My partners and I have a couple hundred employees in Dnipro, Ukraine. Most of the employees have relocated to Poland or western Ukraine, some are sheltering in place, some are fighting. We started to source supplies last week, especially for those who are sheltering in place or fighting. During discussions with various parties across the supply chain it became clear that an enormous effort was underway by hundreds/th…

They are also getting fresh soldiers. I saw a claim from a Canadian vet in Kyiv that 40,000 foreign fighters were already in Kyiv. The Canadian was part of a 500-man exclusively Canadian urban battalion. There was also a report on BBC that Russia had summoned foreign ambassadors in Moscow to complain about foreign volunteers traveling to Ukraine to fight against Russia [1]. I've also been on Telegram channels helping…

>There was also a report that Russia had summoned foreign ambassadors in Moscow to complain about foreign volunteers traveling to Ukraine to fight against Russia.

I am absolutely dying laughing at the absurdity of such a complaint (if true), lol.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#129

Post by brimble »

tyrfing wrote: post #90
jcadam wrote: post #13

Zelensky is starting to sound like he's open to considering some of Russia's stated terms (no pursuit of NATO membership and cession of eastern Ukraine). That doesn't sound like things are going especially well for him.

There's really never been a scenario where Ukraine wins unconditionally. Russia has started backing off on their terms - it's not going well for them either. What makes a negotiated settlement very likely at this point is that Russia has started to make serious concessions and reduced their demands primarily to territorial claims.

If Russia can get them to give up NATO and EU ambitions, and get them to start supplying water to Crimea, they can sit back and wait until they can claim Ukraine by other means (as they already tried once, and as Belarus has gone). Conceding on that, at this point, is just delaying the Russian takeover somewhat. If Russia can't get that out of them, I expect them to demand such large territorial concessions that what's left will have, at best, 1/2 the GDP it used to (not even counting damage from the war). That diminished state will go on to head toward EU and/or NATO membership, but it won't represent the kind of relief valve from European dependence on Russia that a free and prosperous united Ukraine might (which is a big part of why Russia wants to carve them up or conquer them to begin with).

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#130

Post by ppvfy »

2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote: post #63
usaphp wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The insurgency in Iraq was also a minority- most supported the US Russians also think that most Ukrainians support Russia, it doesn't mean it's true. Same with believes that most Iraqis supported US.

Have you researched your assertion about Iraqi support for the US? https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/02/da... > Petraeus: Ukraine is not only bigger but some 50 percent more populous than Iraq, and the Iraqi population included many millions—Kurds, Christians, Yezidis, Shabak, and many of the Shia—who broadly supported the coalition forces throughout our time there. Only a minority of the Iraqi p…

I'm not sure David Petraeus is an impartial source regarding the Iraq war, but even in that interview he avoids the claim that the majority of the Iraqi population supported the US invasion. Instead, he says that supporters of the insurgency are in the minority (you can dislike the invasion and occupation of your country by the US without supporting the Sunni insurgency or the Shia militia) and that "many millions" supported the coalition (how many?).

I'm not just posting this to be pedantic - there are strong comparisons between the US attitude that we would be welcomed as liberators in Iraq and the Russian attitude about Ukraine.

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