The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences • Hacker News Board

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#121

Post by zitterbewegung » Sun, May 09, 2021, 3:21 PM UTC

bredren wrote: post #98

smiley1437 wrote: post #58

Interestingly, there is an embedded video in that article that explains the issue specific to the automotive shortage - it's because the automotive industry cancelled a lot of chip orders in anticipation of low vehicle demand and that caused chip makers to reduce their production for the kinds of chips that go into cars, and now it takes time to ramp back up: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/03/02/how-the-global-compu…

Since 14% of renters are behind on rent and evictions begin June 30, aren’t vehicle repossessions going to kick in July / August? Presumably, due in part to eviction protection, they have been able to divert all or a portion of their rent payments to keeping up with bad car loans for commute vehicles that often will not be needed. These folks need them for housing unfortunately. If repossessed cars start showing up t…

The issue is that supply is greatly exceeding demand. It also isn't constrained to Vehicles. Apple's Q2 guidance has said that iPads and Macs supplies have been constrained. [1]. Also, if you get reposessed cars that doesn't mean you will be able to resell them. Sure the automakers made a mistake in their orders for chips but since everyone is now trying to get foundries making chips and we are still having logistic problems with Air and Ocean freight no one really knows the answer to your question. [2]

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-29/apple-fin...

[2] https://unctad.org/news/shipping-during-covid-19-why-contain...

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#122

Post by mhh__ » Sun, May 09, 2021, 3:21 PM UTC

readflaggedcomm wrote: post #55

mhh__ wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Connected devices are a good thing - i.e. I should be able to make the washing machine scriptable from my computer, but I bet these solutions are always crap because they are implemented in a hurry by engineers who don't understand either the hardware or software well enough to make it work, so you end up with quasi-useless boss-pleasers like we have now.

Without the hardware to script moving wet clothes to a dryer, and possibly folding and sorting dry clothes, is there a point, other than to set an alarm to prevent a moldy forgotten wet load?

That would be a start (the alarm sounds like a chain smoking mouse)

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#123

Post by cortesoft » Sun, May 09, 2021, 3:22 PM UTC

mort96 wrote: post #72

cortesoft wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea is that if you need it bad enough, you can find one at the higher price. If prices didn’t go up, you wouldn’t be able to find one at any price. Some of the people who would want a chip at $x don’t want it at $x*2, and will just never buy one unless the price drops. If the price never drops because supply is never increased, then they will simply never purchase it.

To me that just sounds like an indefinite microchip shortage.

Well, a lot of people would buy yachts if they were only $1000.... since the price will never get there, they will never get their yacht that they want.

Does that mean there is a yacht shortage?

If chip costs stay high, that just means that is how expensive chips are.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#124

Post by ineedasername » Sun, May 09, 2021, 3:22 PM UTC

bredren wrote: post #98

smiley1437 wrote: post #58

Interestingly, there is an embedded video in that article that explains the issue specific to the automotive shortage - it's because the automotive industry cancelled a lot of chip orders in anticipation of low vehicle demand and that caused chip makers to reduce their production for the kinds of chips that go into cars, and now it takes time to ramp back up: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/03/02/how-the-global-compu…

Since 14% of renters are behind on rent and evictions begin June 30, aren’t vehicle repossessions going to kick in July / August? Presumably, due in part to eviction protection, they have been able to divert all or a portion of their rent payments to keeping up with bad car loans for commute vehicles that often will not be needed. These folks need them for housing unfortunately. If repossessed cars start showing up t…

Most new cars still suck / Do not offer meaningful new features

That really depends on how old your car is. I generally buy instead of lease, and run the car until it starts having regular problems. As a result, my car is 12 years old, and any new one from the last few years is a significant upgrade in terms of features. I don't really want a monthly car payment again, but I'm almost looking forward to when my current car starts having enough problems to make the upgrade worth it.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#125

Post by delecti » Sun, May 09, 2021, 3:23 PM UTC

judge2020 wrote: post #114

simias wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know but maybe one of the factors is that given how cheap microntrollers have become it's not uncommon to use an "overpowered" integrated chip just for ease of development. Suppose that you have to drive some LEDs on a washing machine, do you bother developing some optimized bespoke circuitry with discrete components or do you just slap a ~2$ 100+MHz 32bit Cortex controller that will let you implement all the…

With the amount of horrible infotainment systems in the wild i honestly doubt they’re using overpowered chips. I’m sure any consumer grade APU (ie. CPU with an iGPU) from the past 5 years would do better than the chips currently in cars.

Don't underestimate the ability of lazy, incompetent, or (most likely) rushed developers to fill the headspace given to them by overpowered hardware.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#126

Post by f00zz » Sun, May 09, 2021, 3:23 PM UTC

yetihehe wrote: post #82

logicchains wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are sophisticated financial markets for trading fuel, but not for chips. In such a market, firms are incentivised to buy when they anticipate demand will rise (or supply will fall), which increases the price. Then after the price has risen (the demand has materialised), they sell. This distributes the consumption of the underlying resource more evenly across time, making shortages less likely.

Beause you have only several types of fuel, but you have many thousands types of chips and electronic elements and market for each single element type is not that high. Plus if you store a chip too long, it's no longer useful for automated assembly.

I think there were DRAM futures contracts at some point, but looks like the idea never panned out (probably for the reasons you mentioned)

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#127

Post by speed_spread » Sun, May 09, 2021, 3:23 PM UTC

anonyxyz wrote: post #104

ArkanExplorer wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US Government bans a lot of things which are deleterious to society. Online gambling among them. The purpose is not to eliminate Cryptocurrencies, but to reduce the price of Bitcoin and other PoW coins such that mining (which is a misallocation of our civilization's energy and advanced manufactured goods) becomes significantly less rewarding. Ethereum at least has a Governing body which is moving it to PoS. Bitco…

Maybe if there was a little less regulation in the first place, things like bitcoin wouldn't have as much appeal as they do.

This is old rhetoric. Sidestepping the government no longer has anything to do with Bitcoin appeal. At this point, it's purely speculation and money laundering, all subversiveness potential has been evacuated for good.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#128

Post by wizzwizz4 » Sun, May 09, 2021, 3:23 PM UTC

ineedasername wrote: post #124

bredren wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since 14% of renters are behind on rent and evictions begin June 30, aren’t vehicle repossessions going to kick in July / August? Presumably, due in part to eviction protection, they have been able to divert all or a portion of their rent payments to keeping up with bad car loans for commute vehicles that often will not be needed. These folks need them for housing unfortunately. If repossessed cars start showing up t…

Most new cars still suck / Do not offer meaningful new features That really depends on how old your car is. I generally buy instead of lease, and run the car until it starts having regular problems. As a result, my car is 12 years old, and any new one from the last few years is a significant upgrade in terms of features. I don't really want a monthly car payment again, but I'm almost looking forward to when my curren…

If you don't want a monthly car payment, start your “monthly car payment” into a savings account now. You'll end up paying less for your next car if you can maximise the up-front payment.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#129

Post by gostsamo » Sun, May 09, 2021, 3:23 PM UTC

ajross wrote: post #62

ferros wrote: post #3

> Production of low-margin processors, such as those used to weigh clothes in a washing machine or toast bread in a smart toaster, has also been hit. While most retailers are still able to get their hands on these products at the moment, they may face issues in the months ahead. I understand why the new advanced chips could face shortages, but why are there shortages for these basic chips. Can’t they be made anywhere…

> why are there shortages for these basic chips? Can’t they be made anywhere, and more easily? Not really. Semiconductor fabs are built around "tools" from manufacturers like AMAT and Nikon. Those tool vendors make most of their money from selling new tools for fancy new processes, not supporting 20-year-old stuff. Eventually stuff breaks, and fabs have to offline these older processes. The way this works in the tech…

Actually, ASML provides lifetime support for their machines. I don't know for the rest.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#130

Post by danielmeskin » Sun, May 09, 2021, 3:25 PM UTC

judge2020 wrote: post #114

simias wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know but maybe one of the factors is that given how cheap microntrollers have become it's not uncommon to use an "overpowered" integrated chip just for ease of development. Suppose that you have to drive some LEDs on a washing machine, do you bother developing some optimized bespoke circuitry with discrete components or do you just slap a ~2$ 100+MHz 32bit Cortex controller that will let you implement all the…

With the amount of horrible infotainment systems in the wild i honestly doubt they’re using overpowered chips. I’m sure any consumer grade APU (ie. CPU with an iGPU) from the past 5 years would do better than the chips currently in cars.

How much of that is the APU? I’d imagine the bottleneck would lie with manufacturers using the cheapest panels and digitizers they can.