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Internet disrupted in Myanmar amid military coup

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Re: Internet disrupted in Myanmar amid military coup

#121

Post by sudosysgen »

Scheherazade wrote: post #100
brobdingnagians wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The dirty secret is that the US will probably lose either way. Instead of absolute dollar amounts, if you compare China's military purchasing power with the US, adjusting for different labor costs and the fact that they don't include things like R&D in their military budget, then China is much closer to US spending than it appears. Having a supply line to Asia versus China fighting close to home, that is a recipe for…

Of course, even if average productivity per capita in China is half that of America, the total output will be twice as much. No one serious in Washington (or Moscow or Brussels or Beijing, etc.) believes America could win a war on China's home turf even if nukes are untouched. Same with India to a lesser extent. It's not even a secret at all to at least millions of folks across the world. It's only the strange Americ…

Indeed. Realistically, China would have gotten what they wanted with or without a coup. They will support whoever is actually in power.

Re: Internet disrupted in Myanmar amid military coup

#122

Post by sudosysgen »

jcranmer wrote: post #98
brobdingnagians wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The dirty secret is that the US will probably lose either way. Instead of absolute dollar amounts, if you compare China's military purchasing power with the US, adjusting for different labor costs and the fact that they don't include things like R&D in their military budget, then China is much closer to US spending than it appears. Having a supply line to Asia versus China fighting close to home, that is a recipe for…

> Having a supply line to Asia versus China fighting close to home, that is a recipe for disaster. It's worth remembering that World War II was a conflict where one side was fighting on a supply line 4,000 miles long, 3,000 by sea, and the other side was fighting a hundred miles past its own borders. The supply problems in the conflict were mostly concentrated in the latter country. I can't speak to the quality of th…

"The Other Side" was fighting on four fronts at their borders, and had supply lines a thousand miles long on ground, with maybe a quarter of the material and manpower.

If you know anything about logistics you'd conclude that the latter had a much harder logistical challenge, especially since the Axis didn't have much of an Atlantic Navy.

The issue of a US v China confrontation is that this won't repeat. The US will not be able to go unopposed in the seas, and it will have to supply with non-naval means.

Also, it's worth remembering that in the case you're talking about, the US against the Axis in Europe, the US was not a major or deciding force, which is a major part of why it was able to afford such extended supply lines. In an alternative scenario where the rest of the Allies were so weak as that the US was the dominant power in the conflict, maintaining those supply lines would have been incredibly difficult.

Re: Internet disrupted in Myanmar amid military coup

#123

Post by sudosysgen »

joshuahedlund wrote: post #111
secfirstmd wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair the West spent 150 years taking over Africa, enslaving its people, treating them as animals and pillaging it's riches.

To be fair the West also stopped that and now invests billions in foreign aid, economic development, medical assistance, NGO's, and a whole lot more (to varying degrees of success)

I assure you the West has not stopped attempting to make African countries do what is wanted by force or subterfuge. France is perhaps the largest offender in this respect.

Re: Internet disrupted in Myanmar amid military coup

#124

Post by acct776 »

jacquesm wrote: post #113
baybal2 wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The predominant part of HN demographic are young military age men. In case of any real conflict US will get dragged in, you will all be drafted, want you or not. Becoming a soldier after being a freewheeling young man with 6 digit income, and effectively loosing everything you put into your career, business, education, relationship with your woman is not a pleasant thing. But think, sooner or later US will be dragged…

Who will get drafted is a group that isn't well represented on HN: the people without a choice. People with money or connections will easily manage to avoid a draft.

Or the slots will be filled by volunteers who feel they have no other choice because they're trapped by student loans, or threat thereof, in a society that, up until recently, has demanded a 4 year degree to answer phone calls.

Re: Internet disrupted in Myanmar amid military coup

#125

Post by sorokod »

baybal2 wrote: post #115
sorokod wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain what a "heavy marine brigade" is? It vaguely sounds like a technical term, but I am not able to map it to a concrete unit type.

An amphibious brigade with a lot of tanks.

An MEB? 3 or 4 of those is 45 to 60 thousand soldiers. Is that what you had in mind?

Re: Internet disrupted in Myanmar amid military coup

#127

Post by sudosysgen »

jacquesm wrote: post #117
VLM wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Functioning democracies don't mysteriously have one party obtain 95%+ of the votes in every election. Single party rule is naturally ineffective. So when Americans try it in Flint MI and as a result of stellar leadership the water is undrinkable, send in the National Guard to fix things and its rah rah america F yeah stars and stripes forever. But when foreigner militaries have to "reset" things after a decade of sin…

Some people might disagree with that position: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/08/world/asia/myanmar-rohing...

I agree with the article and not nearly as much with the comment you're replying to, but I fail to see how the article is a rebuttal.

Re: Internet disrupted in Myanmar amid military coup

#128

Post by jcranmer »

sudosysgen wrote: post #122
jcranmer wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Having a supply line to Asia versus China fighting close to home, that is a recipe for disaster. It's worth remembering that World War II was a conflict where one side was fighting on a supply line 4,000 miles long, 3,000 by sea, and the other side was fighting a hundred miles past its own borders. The supply problems in the conflict were mostly concentrated in the latter country. I can't speak to the quality of th…

"The Other Side" was fighting on four fronts at their borders, and had supply lines a thousand miles long on ground , with maybe a quarter of the material and manpower. If you know anything about logistics you'd conclude that the latter had a much harder logistical challenge, especially since the Axis didn't have much of an Atlantic Navy. The issue of a US v China confrontation is that this won't repeat. The US will…

Germany's logistics problems started cropping up in late 1941 during Operation Barbarossa, which failed largely because of logistical supply operations. At that time, the only other significant front would be the North African front, which wasn't really competing with Barbarossa for logistical support (North Africa being limited to trans-Mediterranean shipping availability, which the British were doing a passable job of interdicting).

> "The Other Side" was fighting on four fronts at their borders, and had supply lines a thousand miles long on ground

Do remember that it's basically fighting the same enemy on all the fronts (who have the same this-is-not-close issue as Germany). In the one case where it's different, keep in mind that Soviet factories were moved east of the Urals to places like Novosibirsk, which is further from Moscow than Berlin is to Moscow.

> the US against the Axis in Europe, the US was not a major or deciding force

The US was about ½-⅔ the total force in Western Front. While the Western Front was smaller than the Eastern Front, the US also played a major role in the supply chain of the USSR--virtually all of the trucks and trains that kept the USSR's war economy running were supplied by the US, which was also supplying Chang Kai-Shek via The Hump (although Britain was responsible for those logistics), while meanwhile reconquering the Philippines and other Pacific islands from the Japanese. And don't forget, most of the US manufacturing is several hundred miles from the coasts (the Great Lakes don't count for transoceanic shipping purposes).

Re: Internet disrupted in Myanmar amid military coup

#129

Post by baybal2 »

sorokod wrote: post #125
baybal2 wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An amphibious brigade with a lot of tanks.

An MEB? 3 or 4 of those is 45 to 60 thousand soldiers. Is that what you had in mind?

Yes, that in case they are given at least 1 proper tank battalion each.

That will be pretty much the second Iraqi Freedom, maybe less.

Re: Internet disrupted in Myanmar amid military coup

#130

Post by baybal2 »

umeshunni wrote: post #118
baybal2 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chinese have't toppled a democracy.. yet, but they were rather successful at absorbing banana republics previously belonging to major powers. China now has a dozen satellites made of countries formerly being playgrounds of foreign political games.

> China now has a dozen satellites made of countries formerly being playgrounds of foreign political games. Curious which ones these are? North Korea, Nepal?, Pakistan?, Vietnam?

Quite close, Vietnam is not on the list, but add Burma, Campuchia, Sri Lanka, Egypt, now Iran, Afghanistan, Ex-Union Central Asian republics, and quite a number of African states.

Eastern Europe been in and out on this, but I can't yet say they are in existential dependence on communist money.

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