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How much did AlphaGo Zero cost? (2018)

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Re: How much did AlphaGo Zero cost? (2018)

#121
post #23

Our main compute doesn't go towards machine learning, but we do rely heavily on GPU power. I recently had to come up with the figures for us to invest in an expansion of our compute power, and it turned out that buying the machines ourselves would be cheaper than renting them from Google in 3-4 months. We don't run on those fancy V100 cards though, just regular old gaming cards suffice, and I suppose if we bought the…

probably the memory requirements mean that you do need (multiple) V100s though

Re: How much did AlphaGo Zero cost? (2018)

#122
sorry if it is off topic but I want to learn alpha zero from beginning , I do have little understanding of Machine & deep learning including vision recognition. Unfortunately I don't able to understand how monto Carlo tree is used for decision making. where I can start, what shall I learn so that I can learn alpha go (or OpenAI Five - Dota 2 bit).

thanks

Re: How much did AlphaGo Zero cost? (2018)

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think KataGo is stronger than Leela Zero. https://github.com/lightvector/KataGo

I was suspecting another boring clone, but Kata looks like a cool project with nice new ideas! Thanks for sharing

KataGo is also cool for those of us that use bots to review our human games because it has score estimator. With Leela a 0.5 win and a 20.5 win in the endgame can both amount to 99.5% chance of winning, but to us (amateur) humans that is not true.

Re: How much did AlphaGo Zero cost? (2018)

#124
post #4

Alpha Go Zero inspired the development of an open source version, Leela Go Zero which Leela Chess Zero is forked from by the same guy who made Stock Fish. Lots of people contribute what I imagine are amounts of CPU Power/money to the Leela Chess Zero project[1]. Would love to see Alpha Chess vs Leela Chess. [1] https://training.lczero.org/ [edit] I've caused terrible confusion by melding Leela Go and Leela Chess when…

I think KataGo is stronger than Leela Zero. https://github.com/lightvector/KataGo

[deleted]

Re: How much did AlphaGo Zero cost? (2018)

#125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a pretty big claim. One could argue that the topology of the brain is a prior, analogous to the architecture of a neural net. But considering that we really have no idea how learning happens in the brain on a large scale, you really can't say.

I don't remember the name but I definitively saw attempts to build a general AI that was designed to solve 50 different games. There was one long learning phase where the AI learns mechanics that are common to all of the 50 games and then there is a much shorter learning phase that is just specific to a single game. Same attempt was made with a Minecraft bot. First it just learned how to live and interact in a vanill…

The whole atari suite has been solved recently by a single algorithm: https://deepmind.com/blog/article/Agent57-Outperforming-the-...

Re: How much did AlphaGo Zero cost? (2018)

#126

It is estimated to be 36 million for someone else to train AlphaGo Zero, assuming they use Google TPU instances and pay the sticker price. Google isn't operating with that cost, unless we assume that they are prioritizing AlphaGo to the point where they lose such customers 100% of the time. It's way more likely that AlphaGo is trained on spare time, the cost for the hardware is sunk anyway, so only the cost for upkee…

> It's way more likely that AlphaGo is trained on spare time, the cost for the hardware is sunk anyway, so only the cost for upkeep is real.

Not quite, power is quite expensive and basically all modern computers use far less power at idle than going full bore saturated with multiply-add instructions and perfect memory streaming.

Having said that, I agree that there is a substantial cost efficiency gain if they can schedule it during periods of inactivity.

Re: How much did AlphaGo Zero cost? (2018)

#127

Achieving a new breakthrough in computing is often very expensive. Deep Blue is estimated to cost IBM over $100 million over a decade [1]. And in comparison to large tech company R&D budgets, the amount cited in the article is a drop in the bucket. Consider the fact that Google spent $26 billion in R&D budget in 2019 alone [2]. Microsoft spent almost $17 billion [3]. [1] https://www.extremetech.com/computing/76552-pr…

Note that everything in software development is R&D. Building (not operating) Gmail and Android and Office and Azure are R&D.

Right. That's the Development part of Research and Development.

Re: How much did AlphaGo Zero cost? (2018)

#128
I wonder if there's some kind of software that takes an advantage of an AI to teach non-beginner players Go. E.g. you could play against the bot and then the AI would translate your mistakes into what you can improve upon.

Re: How much did AlphaGo Zero cost? (2018)

#129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It'd be really interesting if a research group could calculate an entropic calculation on how efficient training any given neural network would be. As in what is the thermodynamic limit of the most optimal NN training could be in terms of watts per bit trained. My hunch would be that human brains would operate close to this limit. At least in our standard environmental conditions. Based on how near optimal biomateria…

I think the problem you'd find is that "bit trained" is probably highly non-trivial. For example, I expect that the training required to go from 7-year-old child to Go grand master requires a completely different number of bits of information than the training required to go from blanks-late NN to NN Go Grand master. I also suspect that the difference in what is being learned may well dominate the difference in train…

Agreed, after writing that I realized that "bits" of training is a pretty poor metric. Especially in lossy NN as compared to normal computing. Likely researchers will be busy for decades defining and narrowing down the concepts in the field before useful values could be determined in terms of information theory.

A huge question I didn't even realize was "bits don't relate very directly to a NN ability to perform a task".

Re: How much did AlphaGo Zero cost? (2018)

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really, humans barely provide insight (if anything), which chess engines don’t already consider. Deep Blue could evaluate 200 million different moves... per second. And that’s from 1997. The few and rare times an engine gets funky is usually in end-game positions where the engine can’t seem to find a sacrifice to win the game and will output a current position as drawn. These cases are few and I very much doubt t…

I'm not sure it's right to characterise Deep Blue or Stockfish as repositories of human chess theory. Fundamentally they were all based on a relatively simplistic function for calculating the value of a board position combined with the ability to evaluate more board positions further into the future than any human possibly could (plus a database of opening moves). That approach seems thoroughly non-human, and represe…

I think you're right, I meant to say that chess engines usually have book openings built into them which derive off of human chess theory but you're absolutely right in that they don't play in a human form.

It's kind of crazy how AlphaZero has managed the success it has. Stockfish calculates roughly 60 million moves per second and AlphaZero calculates at only 60 thousand per second. Three orders of magnitude less yet its brilliance is mesmerizing, tearing Stockfish apart in certain matches.

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