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US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

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Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#121

Post by bryanlarsen »

mieseratte wrote: post #53
nostromo wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see the value in large numbers of unskilled workers entering the US every year. With a potentially large wave of automation coming, the US shouldn't straddled itself with lots of unemployable drivers, farm workers, etc. I hope we can move to a much more sensible immigration system, similar to Canada's, for example.

> I hope we can move to a much more sensible immigration system, similar to Canada's, for example. We have a decent immigration system in terms of getting the right kinds of advanced folks. The problem is we are also unwilling to do what needs to be done to stem the tide of unskilled illegal labor that flows into the nation.

The number of illegal immigrants in the US has been dropping for the past decade.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-02-21/the-myth-...

The biggest reason for that IMO is because Mexico has been doing relatively well over the past couple of decades. You don't attempt a very risky illegal crossing if you can get a job and support your family where you are.

The repeal of NAFTA will restart the immigration wave as the Mexican economy tanks.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#122

Post by drak0n1c »

cheeseomlit wrote: post #85
mhneu wrote: post #8

For decades, the US birth rate has been held up by immigration. American values have been to regard the country as a nation of immigrants, who not only act as a source of youthful workers, but also have more kids than Americans who have been here longer. So the US has avoided workforce aging, as has happened in parts of Europe and especially Japan, through immigration. With the recent reduction in immigration, accele…

Why is it that birth rates have gone down though? Many factors, mostly economic, which should be addressed instead of importing millions of people who will soon be replaced by automation anyways.

People used to have many more kids regardless of whether they were facing good or bad times. I'd say the change is less economic and more due to culture - both men and women want less kids.

There is economics in the cultural change - as people get wealthier and government welfare becomes more reliable the forces behind maintaining and growing the family decreases. Wealthy people in the past still had many more kids than they do now though, so there's probably a bigger explanation.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#123

Post by tzahola »

avip wrote: post #11
gregorymichael wrote: post #2

What are the economic ramifications of fertility rate being below the replacement level?

Retirement ponzi structure won't hold.

And the masses of childless elders will happily vote into office anyone who promises to take care of them.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#124

Post by Analemma_ »

cheeseomlit wrote: post #98
dv_dt wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America integrated large immigrant waves in it's past, and I doubt anyone would say the Italians, or Irish, or other minorities were not integrated today. Time bridges cultures, and we're the better for it.

Italians, Irish, and most of the other immigrants from that time were Europeans who had a lot in common with Americans culturally.

That's not what anti-immigration crusaders said at the time. It was a common belief that Italian and Irish immigrants (who were mostly Catholic) could never fit in to Protestant American society. Your statement is pure revisionism.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#125

Post by loggedinmyphone »

simmanian wrote: post #106
loggedinmyphone wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe did the same in importing large numbers of Muslim laborers after WW2. The hope was that they'd either make their money and go back home, or culturally integrate. Many observers will say that neither happened and there's now a difficult social problem in many countries like France.

>Many observers will say that neither happened And do you agree with the observers? If so, do you have sources to back up the claim? I ask you not to accuse you of anything but because I watched a Kurzgesagt video a while back saying most of the immigrants have integrated well over the next few generations.

Based on my personal experiences with people of Turkish and Egyptian descent living in Europe, I believe that many are happy being integrated into their adopted nationality, and many are not. Again my point is not that immigration can't work, just that a hasty decision can be nearly impossible to reverse.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#126

Post by robotrout »

rubicon33 wrote: post #95
mieseratte wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I hope we can move to a much more sensible immigration system, similar to Canada's, for example. We have a decent immigration system in terms of getting the right kinds of advanced folks. The problem is we are also unwilling to do what needs to be done to stem the tide of unskilled illegal labor that flows into the nation.

The biggest counter argument I hear, regularly, is that the "tide" of illegal labor you speak of is NECESSARY. Who will pick strawberries? Who will clean your hotel room? Etc. It's the classic who will do "X" dirty job argument.

If we decide that we are no longer able to exploit desperate immigrants to pick our crops, than the price those crops are sold at will rise until such time as the next Eli Whitney, who is probably an HN reader, invents a machine to harvest them cheaper.

All you're doing by continuing the exploitation is keeping such automation from being developed, as you rob it of it's market.

It is so predictable that the whole "but what about the farmers" is touted as a reason to flaunt immigration laws. The farmers are not owed such a subsidy by the American people. They will adapt if they are forced to. They would be stupid to do so before they are forced to.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#127

Post by cheeseomlit »

dv_dt wrote: post #109
cheeseomlit wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Italians, Irish, and most of the other immigrants from that time were Europeans who had a lot in common with Americans culturally.

I don't think you're thinking of the historical details to say that in such a blase manner. The path to integration went through periods much more violent and contentious than anything we see today.

I'm aware of how immigrants were treated back then and I'm not condoning it. That still doesn't change the fact that they came from cultures that IMO were quite compatible with the USAs considering their common origin and values. I think the current situation in Europe, and other instances of mass migration in history, demonstrate that not all cultures are compatible with each other

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#128

Post by rubicon33 »

Karishma1234 wrote: post #36

Not true at all. Turns out that the poor people who actually cant afford to have kids are having more kids. Hispanic and Black growth is much higher than whites and asians. Asians with the highest income level have lowest birth rate. Given that it is mostly whites who have been leading in STEM there is a high chance that US will lose its competitive advantage in these fields.

I'm not sure that low income Hispanic and Black birth rates says anything about their ability to afford those children. In other words, just because they're having more children doesn't mean it's a financially wise decision, or even one they can technically afford.

Many middle class white and asian families are putting off children because of the cost of living. Just to make a decent 2-earner income, you need both to have at least a college degree. After graduating college and landing a job you're still making historically low wages relative to the cost of living.

Take those historically low wages and try and buy a house. Home ownership (a staple milestone for young families) is still wildly unaffordable in most healthy economic zones. When home ownership is pushed later, and later in life, couples don't feel "settled" and ready to build a family.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#129

Post by diminoten »

wetpaws wrote: post #90
jacquesm wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, you could of course move but in the end it is mostly about priorities.

Going from expensive area with good job market to slightly less expensive area with little to no job market. Rrright.

Job market is different now, some of those Bay Area jobs are mobile, at least within the Pacific time zone.
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