An Update on Last Week’s Accident • Hacker News Board

Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident

#121

Post by DrScump » Sat, Mar 31, 2018, 6:19 AM UTC

andrewstuart2 wrote: post #13

hedora wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the autopilot did something a human driver who was paying attention would never do. Then how did the crushed barrier get crushed before the Tesla hit it? Clearly, the stretch of road is unsafe enough to trick humans drivers (and, clearly, Tesla should improve).

I'm obviously not privy to the details of the prior crash, but I'm pretty sure any healthy human would not deliberately drive into the barrier. The most likely scenarios I can think of would be not paying attention and drifting into the barrier, attempting to avoid a car merging into the lane (and not paying enough attention), or being struck by another car and being forced into the barrier.

  any healthy human would not deliberately drive into the barrier

But plenty have driven negligently into barriers.

The worst such crash I've ever seen was barely 2 miles from there, on northbound 85 near Fremont Ave. There is a soundwall that comes to a connection point where a wall segment is directly perpendicular to the freeway. For some reason, the guardrail had a gap there almost exactly the width of a vehicle.

A few years ago, a vehicle veered off the right shoulder and perfectly threaded the gap, into the wall at full speed. It was compressed to maybe 5 feet long.

Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident

#122

Post by URSpider94 » Sat, Mar 31, 2018, 6:19 AM UTC

oldgradstudent wrote: post #63

In keeping with the "Autopilot" terminology, this was "Controlled Flight info Terrain". Tesla demonstrates their usual abuse of statistics. 1.25 fatalities per 100 million miles is the average across all types of terrain, conditions, and cars. The death rate in rural roads is much higher than in urban areas. The death rate on highways is much lower than average. The death rate with new cars is much lower than average…

Note: Tesla is comparing the fatality rate of autopilot-equipped cars with the average accident rate. They are NOT only counting miles where autopilot is used, they are counting all miles driven by their cars. It could be that Tesla drivers are inherently safer than the general population, or that the cars themselves are much safer. What they are not doing (at least with the data) is making a statistical claim about autopilot safety.

Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident

#123

Post by TwoBit » Sat, Mar 31, 2018, 6:21 AM UTC

oldgradstudent wrote: post #63

In keeping with the "Autopilot" terminology, this was "Controlled Flight info Terrain". Tesla demonstrates their usual abuse of statistics. 1.25 fatalities per 100 million miles is the average across all types of terrain, conditions, and cars. The death rate in rural roads is much higher than in urban areas. The death rate on highways is much lower than average. The death rate with new cars is much lower than average…

You're saying autopilot refuses to run on rural roads?

Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident

#124

Post by disillusioned » Sat, Mar 31, 2018, 6:24 AM UTC

dzink wrote: post #76

I have a lot of respect for Tesla, but this incident convinced me not to buy one any time soon. I have children with car seats. The fires that break out with battery right under the middle makes it impossible to save someone in the driver seat, let alone in the back. More importantly, self driving cars are not the same - Waymo has lidar, Tesla and Uber don’t (correct me if wrong). If a system is clearly struggling wi…

Not quite. The battery pack actually has an aerogel like insulating layer above it in between the cabin and the pack to allow people time to exit, and ports the flames to the front and rear of the vehicle, rather than the sides for this exact reason. It will obviously eventually consume the whole vehicle, because lithium fires burn so hot, but they've done a lot to ameliorate this concern. I thought the driver in this case was removed _before_ the fire started.

Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident

#125

Post by TwoBit » Sat, Mar 31, 2018, 6:24 AM UTC

cma wrote: post #99

Tempest1981 wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is the confusing sentence: (dots added) "The driver had received several visual and one audible hands-on warning earlier in the drive ... and the driver’s hands were not detected on the wheel for six seconds prior to the collision." https://www.tesla.com/blog/update-last-week’s-accident

It could have been earlier in the drive as in 30 minutes before, or something ridiculous like that. That was complete weasel wording.

Also, Tesla can mistakenly think you aren't holding the wheel when you are. Happens to me all the time.

Regardless of the criticism of Tesla here, surely the driver wasn't watching the road, or otherwise this wouldn't have happened.

Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident

#126

Post by DrScump » Sat, Mar 31, 2018, 6:26 AM UTC

Robotbeat wrote: post #79

andrewstuart2 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm obviously not privy to the details of the prior crash, but I'm pretty sure any healthy human would not deliberately drive into the barrier. The most likely scenarios I can think of would be not paying attention and drifting into the barrier, attempting to avoid a car merging into the lane (and not paying enough attention), or being struck by another car and being forced into the barrier.

I think the answer is that the path into the barrier looks just like an actual lane, and that this was enough confusion that a human driver apparently had made the same exact mistake a week earlier. https://imgur.com/a/iMY1x https://techcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/screen-sho...

Except those solid white lines delimit an uncrossable barrier delimiting the HOV-specific (during commute hours) flyover from the 101 lane, which is well documented for nearly a mile preceding that point.

Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident

#127

Post by wbl » Sat, Mar 31, 2018, 6:29 AM UTC

xapata wrote: post #108

incadenza wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re missing the point. The crucial fact according to OP is that the car did something that a fully aware driver would not ever do. It’s at least worth acknowledging that.

I've been a fully aware driver unsure of what to do when seeing a surprise in my lane. I only hit the break because a passenger started screaming. I was so confused to see a pedestrian on the freeway.

When in doubt slam brake.

Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident

#128

Post by DrScump » Sat, Mar 31, 2018, 6:29 AM UTC

shambolicfroli wrote: post #106

Robotbeat wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the answer is that the path into the barrier looks just like an actual lane, and that this was enough confusion that a human driver apparently had made the same exact mistake a week earlier. https://imgur.com/a/iMY1x https://techcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/screen-sho...

CalTrans doesn't diagonally stripe spaces like that? It would seem that they should.

There has been a lot of repaving work on 101, so these may well not be the final markings.

Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident

#129

Post by ScottBurson » Sat, Mar 31, 2018, 6:30 AM UTC

Robotbeat wrote: post #79

andrewstuart2 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm obviously not privy to the details of the prior crash, but I'm pretty sure any healthy human would not deliberately drive into the barrier. The most likely scenarios I can think of would be not paying attention and drifting into the barrier, attempting to avoid a car merging into the lane (and not paying enough attention), or being struck by another car and being forced into the barrier.

I think the answer is that the path into the barrier looks just like an actual lane, and that this was enough confusion that a human driver apparently had made the same exact mistake a week earlier. https://imgur.com/a/iMY1x https://techcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/screen-sho...

I read that that driver was arrested for DUI.

Re: An Update on Last Week’s Accident

#130

Post by TwoBit » Sat, Mar 31, 2018, 6:30 AM UTC

dzink wrote: post #76

I have a lot of respect for Tesla, but this incident convinced me not to buy one any time soon. I have children with car seats. The fires that break out with battery right under the middle makes it impossible to save someone in the driver seat, let alone in the back. More importantly, self driving cars are not the same - Waymo has lidar, Tesla and Uber don’t (correct me if wrong). If a system is clearly struggling wi…

I think you are mis-analyzing. Tesla fires are extremely rare, more so than gasoline fires. And the fires take much longer to occur.