Tesla Model 3 Hits Production • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#121

Post by dsfyu404ed » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 1:51 PM UTC

bowersbros wrote: post #102

csdreamer7 wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have numbers for the maintenance? Consumer Reports and insurance companies claim that maintenance is expensive for Teslas, even among luxury cars.

As I understand it, repairs are expensive, but general maintenance is less, because there isn't as much to maintain.

A Tesla has all the same bearings, bushings and whatnot holding it off the ground and putting power to the road.

EV gets rid of a ton of leak points compared to ICE. All the normal wear and tear stuff is exorbitantly expensive with Tesla because of how few shops can service them and you usually have to go through Tesla for parts.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#122

Post by xorcist » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 2:07 PM UTC

stupidcar wrote: post #67

Munkum wrote: post #62

There is no way on god's earth that Tesla can ramp up production like that. I suspect the first cars that they sell will roll off the VP tools and not off the main lines anyway. With a lack of product maturation the quality of the first cars will be appalling too. I'd bet that the guys at the coal face are wanting to kill their PR people right now for making promises that they know will get broken. Disclosure: work i…

I'm reminded a little of how the Blackberry board supposedly watched the iPhone announcement and insisted it was fake, as there was "no way" someone could build and profitably sell a phone with that feature-set. Tesla might not do what they're promising. Hell, they probably won't do what they're promising. But pronouncing something impossible on the basis of industry experience can be a dangerous thing. Some things a…

> insisted it was fake, as there was "no way" someone could build and profitably sell a phone with that feature-set

A little context here might be good. The supposed disbelief of Blackberry was their carrier deal, as they themselves were not _allowed_ to sell phones with that feature set.

It wasn't unthinkable to build it engineering-wise. (It was expensive yet with underwhelming features, a 2G phone with no apps at a time when even feature phones had 3G and apps for almost five years.) It was unthinkable business-wise. Those rules are easier to play hard and fast with.

That there is unfounded criticism doesn't mean all criticisms is unfounded.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#123

Post by saturdaysaint » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 2:10 PM UTC

arethuza wrote: post #119

Siecje wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is a drainage problem?

I had a Passat a few years back and it had a design flaw where the tray that holds the battery has drain holes that can get blocked and if they do it overflows into the interior of the car. I used to park my car under trees that dropped leaves which blocked the battery compartment drainage holes and as I am in Scotland it can get quite wet. Ended up with car filled with 1" of water.... Interior of car had to be strip…

I'm always tempted to test drive stylish German cars but I swear 90% of the maintenance horror stories I've heard in the last 15 years have involved a German car.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#124

Post by castratikron » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 2:13 PM UTC

Fej wrote: post #38

So is it likely (or even possible) that TSLA really is the most shorted stock on Earth? I've seen this tossed around repeatedly, although perhaps it's just a rumor. On the other hand, > Tesla said that it's now "rare" for a new Model X to have "initial quality problems." [1] doesn't sound very pretty. [1] http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/03/tesla-delivers-22000-vehicles...

Not sure about Earth, but I think it is the most shorted stock on the US market. Something like $10B in short interest last time I checked a few weeks ago.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#125

Post by cptskippy » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 2:13 PM UTC

arethuza wrote: post #86

nradov wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If electric cars are so simple, why is the Tesla Model S so unreliable? https://www.truedelta.com/Tesla-Model-S/reliability-1095 Conversely, the Toyota Prius is one of the most reliable cars. Yet it is mechanically complex with both an internal combustion engine and an electric motor, plus a CVT. So clearly engineering skill and manufacturing quality are bigger factors than the drive train.

How unreliable are ICEs these days - maybe its just me, but I've never had an engine problem in nearly 20 years of owning cars. Electrical problems, suspension problems, drainage problems - had all of them but never had a problem with the actual engine.

Maybe it depends on the age of your car and how you drive it? I've had 4 Honda Accords from an 88 up to an 07 that all started exhibiting the same engine problems around the 200k mile mark. Blown head gaskets, burning oil, timing belt issues, etc.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#126

Post by mikeash » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 2:13 PM UTC

xorcist wrote: post #122

stupidcar wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm reminded a little of how the Blackberry board supposedly watched the iPhone announcement and insisted it was fake, as there was "no way" someone could build and profitably sell a phone with that feature-set. Tesla might not do what they're promising. Hell, they probably won't do what they're promising. But pronouncing something impossible on the basis of industry experience can be a dangerous thing. Some things a…

> insisted it was fake, as there was "no way" someone could build and profitably sell a phone with that feature-set A little context here might be good. The supposed disbelief of Blackberry was their carrier deal, as they themselves were not _allowed_ to sell phones with that feature set. It wasn't unthinkable to build it engineering-wise. (It was expensive yet with underwhelming features, a 2G phone with no apps at…

The carrier deal was also a surprise to them, but if you believe this anonymous former RIM engineer they also didn't think it was possible to do what the iPhone did and still have acceptable battery life:

"RIM was even in denial the day after the iPhone was announced with all hands meets claiming all manner of weird things about iPhone: it couldn't do what they were demonstrating without an insanely power hungry processor, it must have terrible battery life, etc. Imagine their surprise when they disassembled an iPhone for the first time and found that the phone was battery with a tiny logic board strapped to it. It was ridiculous, it was brilliant."

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2044389

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#127

Post by mikeash » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 2:17 PM UTC

nradov wrote: post #72

stupidcar wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm reminded a little of how the Blackberry board supposedly watched the iPhone announcement and insisted it was fake, as there was "no way" someone could build and profitably sell a phone with that feature-set. Tesla might not do what they're promising. Hell, they probably won't do what they're promising. But pronouncing something impossible on the basis of industry experience can be a dangerous thing. Some things a…

If electric cars are so simple, why is the Tesla Model S so unreliable? https://www.truedelta.com/Tesla-Model-S/reliability-1095 Conversely, the Toyota Prius is one of the most reliable cars. Yet it is mechanically complex with both an internal combustion engine and an electric motor, plus a CVT. So clearly engineering skill and manufacturing quality are bigger factors than the drive train.

The Model S drivetrain is reasonably reliable. Most of the reliability problems (and I believe they have an average score now, not great but not terrible) are other parts of the car. Tesla likes their unnecessary "cool" tech, which also tends to break. The Model S has the extending door handles, and the X has ridiculous doors. Not that it's limited to these aspects of the vehicle, of course.

Note that the Prius doesn't have a CVT the way you'd normally think of one. It has a fixed planetary gear set which is able to somewhat emulate a CVT by using two electric motor-generators in conjunction with the engine. I mention this only because "CVT" usually makes people think of painful friction-based transmissions, whereas the Prius's transmission is much simpler than even a normal transmission. Your point that engineering skill and manufacturing quality are the main factors is spot-on.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#128

Post by mikeash » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 2:19 PM UTC

calafrax wrote: post #115

Munkum wrote: post #62

There is no way on god's earth that Tesla can ramp up production like that. I suspect the first cars that they sell will roll off the VP tools and not off the main lines anyway. With a lack of product maturation the quality of the first cars will be appalling too. I'd bet that the guys at the coal face are wanting to kill their PR people right now for making promises that they know will get broken. Disclosure: work i…

I would have more confidence in this announcement if it was not made a day before Tesla announced that they are experiencing falling demand for their existing line and barely hit the bottom of their production forecast. Their initial "hand over" is to employees, not real customers, so it is really just internal testing and does not indicate anything about when actual deliveries will begin. Hitting delivery deadlines…

Those employees are still paying their own personal money for the car. They're as much "real customers" as you or me.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#129

Post by base698 » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 2:21 PM UTC

bowersbros wrote: post #102

csdreamer7 wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have numbers for the maintenance? Consumer Reports and insurance companies claim that maintenance is expensive for Teslas, even among luxury cars.

As I understand it, repairs are expensive, but general maintenance is less, because there isn't as much to maintain.

You're parroting Tesla's Marketing.

Any mechanical product with 1000s and 1000s of parts made by complex machines also, with 1000s of ways to make mistakes is going to have lots of opportunity for problems that need fixing.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#130

Post by mikeash » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 2:22 PM UTC

jondubois wrote: post #48

I wonder if Tesla is worried that this new model might cannibalize its more expensive, more profitable model S? Also, I should think that the level of automation required to produce a mass market car on the scale necessary to be profitable would be insane... And I bet Toyota, GM and all the others have patents on many, if not all of these production automation technologies.

They clearly are worried about exactly that. They've spent the past year discouraging people from reserving a Model 3, in a clear attempt to drive more Model S/X sales. Elon has gone on a couple of Twitter sprees to tell people that the Model 3 exists to be cheaper, won't be as good as the S, and that you should buy an S or X if you want the best Tesla has to offer. Just the other day Tesla shaved a full second off the low-end Model S's 0-60 time, which is likely intended to give the S a solid performance edge over the 3.