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Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

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121–130 of 209 posts

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think everyone in any position of power understands that they must remain in the single market - now the only question is how to position / sell this to the electorate.

The problem is that it is not in the EU's best interest to give the UK the best possible deal, especially with many populist parties ready to request an exit if the UK deal works out well. The whole process will be immensely complicated: the deal should be bad enough for the UK to instil fear for an exit, but good enough to avoid an economic collapse.

It may not be in the EU's interest to give a good deal, but it is definitely in Europes interest to do so.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#122
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would other countries want that model? It seems to be strictly worse than full membership.

I also wonder why Norway wants that model?

Actually, Norway itself mentioned that their deal is worse that EU membership: the politicians would prefer to join the EU, but this is not an easy sell to the electorate, so they do not bother.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GBP stopped falling though. Dunno if it's because brexit stalled or because the market thinks brexit will be fine.

The GBP stopped falling because the UK government spend about 250bln GBP to stop it from falling further.

the Bank of England offered to provide 250 billion of liquidity to banks, which is not the same thing as the government spending it buying foreign currency

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#124
post #62

"With regard to unskilled workers, Japanese businesses rely on inexpensive labour from Eastern Europe in the manufacturing and agricultural industries in the UK" What a hypocritical demand from the Japanese. They have one of the strictest set of immigration policies in the world, largely for the sake of national homogeneity at the expensive of their economy. They believe that is a worthwhile sacrifice for them, why n…

> They have one of the strictest set of immigration policies in the world [citation needed] My experience is that Japan has very permissive immigration for skilled labor (anyone with a college degree) or social ties (marriage). Far more so than e.g. the USA or Europe. They just don't have a green card lottery for unskilled labor (like the US) or open borders for refugees (like Europe).

Really? It's well known that Japan is not really welcoming to immigrants.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Japan#Immigrant...

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#125
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Now, it has the possibility of accessing the EU market AND trading with the world. Wonderful. Something which clearly is not possible while in the EU. I never understood why the EU did not allow that. The UK never had a chance to successfully trade within the EU and trade with other countries was strictly forbidden. Brexit will change all that. Congratulations!

>trade with other countries was strictly forbidden. Huh? All EU countries trade with countries outside the EU all the time.

I think it was sarcasm ;)

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#126
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, but if you are old enough, you might remember that long before 1973 the UK spanned the world: India, Pakistan, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Canada. You even had 13 colonies south of Canada. And if you are that old, you might remember that they didn't like the UK way of trading. I hope the UK will never get back that glory. The EU never prevented UK from trading with the rest of the world. If anything, it…

> The EU never prevented UK from trading with the rest of the world Upon joining the EU, the free trade arrangements that the UK had with Commonwealth countries were dissolved.

It's very unlikely those treaties would be readily restored now. Two relevant things changed: the partners have made new treaties with other countries and now the UK needs the treaties more than their prospectie partners.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#127
post #62

"With regard to unskilled workers, Japanese businesses rely on inexpensive labour from Eastern Europe in the manufacturing and agricultural industries in the UK" What a hypocritical demand from the Japanese. They have one of the strictest set of immigration policies in the world, largely for the sake of national homogeneity at the expensive of their economy. They believe that is a worthwhile sacrifice for them, why n…

> They have one of the strictest set of immigration policies in the world [citation needed] My experience is that Japan has very permissive immigration for skilled labor (anyone with a college degree) or social ties (marriage). Far more so than e.g. the USA or Europe. They just don't have a green card lottery for unskilled labor (like the US) or open borders for refugees (like Europe).

The numbers speak for themselves

http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/nenkan/1431-02.htm Section 2-14

http://www.dir.co.jp/english/research/report/others/20150529...

But you are right, I should have said first-world countries, I am not familiar with developing countries policies. Compared to the US and Europe, Japan's immigration policy is far stricter (and sensible as you state for skilled labour) and a significant driver is a desire for homogeneity.

A large number of those in support of Brexit wish to have a similar approach. Very supportive of high-skilled immigration, against extremely high low-skilled immigration.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think everyone in any position of power understands that they must remain in the single market - now the only question is how to position / sell this to the electorate.

The problem is that it is not in the EU's best interest to give the UK the best possible deal, especially with many populist parties ready to request an exit if the UK deal works out well. The whole process will be immensely complicated: the deal should be bad enough for the UK to instil fear for an exit, but good enough to avoid an economic collapse.

I know a lady who's married but isn't super happy in the marriage. When she discussed possible divorce with her husband, he promised that he'd bog her down with paperwork, unreasonable alimony demands and just an extremely messy and unpleasant divorce. No settlement, it's going to multiple levels of court and will take years.

Assuming your comment is meant as an argument for remain, it's an equally good argument for this woman not to get divorced.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#129
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> instill fear Is that how Europe is governed? I think any country should be allowed to leave without condescending comments by anyone. I prefer staying in Europe, but if the majority of my fellows prefer the opposite, then it's democracy. Who are we to judge they are "stupid", "country-side, or "senile", like I've read all across newspapers, or even fascists, like I've heard too? If Europe relies on hating the peopl…

Is that how Europe is governed? I think any country should be allowed to leave without condescending comments by anyone. I think people can handle condescending comments. The problem is that you cannot reap the benefits without paying dues, which is what the Brexit camp promised. It's in the interest of the remaining EU members to make this clear, or the whole union will crumble. It's likely that this will throw back…

> ...without paying the dues, which is what the Brexit camp promised

This assumes the voters are gullible. But what if they are grown-ups who didn't literally believe Johnson, and made a decision based on rational arguments, would you accept it? Examples:

- What if, for example, voters wanted fewer immigration at all costs, and what if their elites refused to give them a referendum on this topic? Then they may decently choose to vote against their elites' interests on the next question they're asked. And boom! there goes Europe. Tough luck, but extremely bad politics too.

- What if rural workers and retired people, who demonstrated 10 years ago against the low benefits and who see violence, alcoholism and drugs raising, what if those people were genuinely getting the short end of the London intelligencia?

In both situations, it ends with "If you break my toys, I'll break yours". If you keep accepting more immigration / not reducing unemployment in countryside England, then we'll break the Europe that makes you so rich.

You know, you evoke crumbling and wars. I know nothing more pushing a country to wreckage than a divide between the rich and the poor. Which may be what happened in England.

If we want peace, it's important to listen to what other people want. I hear people blame the rise of xenophobia all across Europe. Maybe if we stop tagging anyone who suggest fewer immigration as xenophobic, and listen to a quarter of their proposals, then they won't need to vote for the extreme right?

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#130
post #76
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Swiss have a more direct democracy than most, and recently voted to limit free travel - trouble is, free travel is a condition of free market access, and with this vote, they're going to lose that. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-singl...

The Swiss still try to find a compromise that is compatible with free movement. http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/immigration-vote-_sommaruga-admi...

freedom of movement shall entail the abolition of any discrimination based on nationality between workers of the Member States as regards employment, remuneration and other conditions of work and employment.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_of_movement_for_worker...

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