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Why Electric Cars Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think

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Re: Why Electric Cars Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think

#121

Post by thinkcontext »

andykellr wrote: post #44

Unless Tesla goes out of business and nobody manages to produce a similar electric car, I will never buy a gas car again. Electric cars are quick, fun, quiet, clean, safe, and convenient. It would feel like a big step backwards for me to buy a gas car again. They're not for everyone right now and I think it will take a long time to reach significant penetration, but more people will try it and many will never go back…

The Chevy Bolt will beat the Model 3 to market and have similar specs, ~$37K and 200 mile range.

Re: Why Electric Cars Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think

#122

Post by Roboprog »

_asummers wrote: post #107
tempestn wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And in 15 years the batteries will inevitably be much less expensive than they are today.

And hopefully much more powerful, extending THAT purchase even further.

I wouldn't count on getting much more kWh into lithium. But the batteries probably will degrade slower in the future.

Re: Why Electric Cars Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think

#123

Post by secabeen »

antisthenes wrote: post #117
Quanticles wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bigger issue seems to be people overestimate how much they spend on fuel. You buy the car once, but you refuel it hundreds of times over its lifetime, giving the impression that fuel is a big expense. For example, if you assume $0.073/mile, for 100,000 miles, that is $7300. If going electric cuts that in half, you save only $3650, which is only ~10% of the cost of the vehicle. Looking at total cost of ownership (car…

It's even worse than that, because eventually the battery pack will have to be replaced. While Tesla may cover that under some warranties, people who bought something like a Nissan Leaf are SOL. Their cars start losing range much quicker than a Tesla, because of the need to charge almost daily due to lower range. Google shows the replacement cost for a Nissan Leaf battery at $5,500. Going by your calculations for 100…

Does that replacement cost for the Leaf battery include the core credit for returning the old battery? Those batteries still have value, and if they can be re-manufactured or re-purposed as stationary storage batteries, that could reduce the cost significantly.

Re: Why Electric Cars Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think

#124

Post by robinson7d »

castratikron wrote: post #120
kylec wrote: post #17

I was talking to my father a few weeks ago about electric cars, and I wanted to quantify how much going electric would save him so I ran some numbers. Where he lives gas is currently somewhere around $2.20/gallon. His car gets around 30mpg combined, so he's paying ~$0.073/mile. Tesla's website contains a "charging estimator" for the Model S, which estimates a cost of $12.04 for a total charge of 300 miles in a 90D. I…

The cost of driving is more than the cost of fuel alone. You also need to include wear and tear on the vehicle, the cost of insurance, and of course the cost of putting that CO2 in the environment, which is currently not a part of the price of gas. The cost of driving is closer to $0.50/mile: https://www.irs.gov/uac/newsroom/2016-standard-mileage-rates...

Is there a substantial difference in this cost when comparing an electric vehicle to a gas vehicle, though?

The parent's post was about cost of fuel (per mile), not the overall cost of driving.

Re: Why Electric Cars Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think

#125

Post by evgen »

castratikron wrote: post #120
kylec wrote: post #17

I was talking to my father a few weeks ago about electric cars, and I wanted to quantify how much going electric would save him so I ran some numbers. Where he lives gas is currently somewhere around $2.20/gallon. His car gets around 30mpg combined, so he's paying ~$0.073/mile. Tesla's website contains a "charging estimator" for the Model S, which estimates a cost of $12.04 for a total charge of 300 miles in a 90D. I…

The cost of driving is more than the cost of fuel alone. You also need to include wear and tear on the vehicle, the cost of insurance, and of course the cost of putting that CO2 in the environment, which is currently not a part of the price of gas. The cost of driving is closer to $0.50/mile: https://www.irs.gov/uac/newsroom/2016-standard-mileage-rates...

An electric car has all of those same costs. The CO2 cost will be slightly higher, but 90+% of your electricity comes from CO2 generating facilities. Not sure where battery replacement will net out in terms of dollar and CO2 cost, but it is unlikely to be cheap.

Re: Why Electric Cars Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think

#126

Post by antisthenes »

rob74 wrote: post #100

So, a plug-in hybrid will be lugging around a gas engine and (probably full) gas tank which it won't be needing for 90% of all trips. Am I the only one who thinks this is terribly inefficient?

Not as inefficient as using a 1.5 ton vehicle to move 1 person around.

It's somewhat ironic to see that question posed as a genuine concern, when presumably you already made the choice to travel by automobile, the least efficient form of transportation.

Re: Why Electric Cars Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think

#127

Post by evgen »

mixmastamyk wrote: post #116
Spooky23 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. Fuel is only one part of a car's cost. The capital expense, maintenance and insurance are other costs. You pay a really high premium for electrics. If you insist on buying a new car, the TCO of a Honda Fit or similar car will be lower than an electric, and you avoid whatever bullshit that you need to deal with from the vendor (i.e. Using the dealer for all repairs) and dealing with charging stations and c…

Also maintenance costs are lower for electric cars.

An assertion that has yet to be proven. While an electric car has fewer moving parts to wear out, those parts that do need maintenance are going to be specialized pieces of electronics and power distribution kit that will cost far more than a few spark plugs and a new muffler.

Re: Why Electric Cars Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think

#128

Post by mikestew »

foxylad wrote: post #63
mikestew wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One small correction: your Leaf has brake pads.

Thanks for your undeniably better-informed comment. Would I be right that regenerative braking should substantially reduce brake pad wear?

Would I be right that regenerative braking should substantially reduce brake pad wear?

I'm betting the pads on ours outlast our ownership of the car. (Note that I have absolutely nothing to base this on other than watching the "I'm braking using the motor and not the pads" meter.)

Not that I find lifetime brake pads to be a big selling point. Other than something like changing the oil, replacing brake pads has to be one of the easiest jobs to do (albeit with some of the greatest consequences should you screw it up). Even with new rotors, I might have to go grab a hammer to knock the old ones loose, then it's another 30 seconds to put the new one on.

Re: Why Electric Cars Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think

#129

Post by evgen »

outworlder wrote: post #101
expression wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Luckily you don't need to maintain electric cars at all.

You do. But keep in mind they have way less parts, moving or otherwise. Spark plugs, cables, the entire engine cooling system, fuel pumps, all of that is missing. It boils down to: battery (big unknown, but seem to be holding up surprisingly well), engine (incredibly simple!), no transmission or a very simple one (Nissan Leaf has a single gear), inverter, charger, brakes, and the standard 12V battery you find in all…

Wow, electirc cars are so simple it is surprising that so few companies make them! The moving parts in a car are pieces that 1) have multiple manufacturers and are relatively cheap to replace, and 2) can be replaced by a wide range of repair shops so that competition can keep a check on the overall replacement costs. What you left out of your electric car list are all of the specialized electronics and only-for-this-car equipment that are all very expensive to replace and will all only be supplied by the manufacturer. The idea that you can just go online and shop around for an inverter for your Tesla or run down to the auto parts store to pick up the right 12V battery is laughable.

Re: Why Electric Cars Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think

#130

Post by woobar »

evandijk70 wrote: post #84
kylec wrote: post #17

I was talking to my father a few weeks ago about electric cars, and I wanted to quantify how much going electric would save him so I ran some numbers. Where he lives gas is currently somewhere around $2.20/gallon. His car gets around 30mpg combined, so he's paying ~$0.073/mile. Tesla's website contains a "charging estimator" for the Model S, which estimates a cost of $12.04 for a total charge of 300 miles in a 90D. I…

I guess it makes a lot more sense to own an electric car in Europe, where gasoline prices are around 1,50 euro per liter, or $6,50/gallon, while electricity prices are around $0.20/kWh. Still, recharging an electric car is still a lot more inconvenient than refueling a normal car.

I think it makes a lot more sense to switch to electric car right now. But taxes contribute to more than 50% of the retail gas prices in Europe. So what would happen when majority of drivers switch to electric cars? How european governments will recoup lost tax revenue?
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