How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get? • Hacker News Board

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#121

Post by umsm » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 5:17 PM UTC

cowmix wrote: post #39

PinguTS wrote: post #5

This article has lots of false assumptions. To phrase it positively, the article ignores a lot of facts. EVs are simpler devices than gasoline-powered vehicles. They have a smaller number of parts, making them easier to assemble. At similar scale to gas vehicles, electric vehicles should indeed be lower cost to built. In addition, EVs have many fewer moving parts (in the engine and drivetrain in particular) than inte…

It is funny you should bring up brakes. On most hybrids and plugins brakes seem to last forever because regenerative braking is what is mostly used over using brake pads. My Volt has 54K miles yet my brake pads look practically new. Also, my Volt has only had its oil replaced once (because of how often the engine runs.) When I get my Tesla 3, I'll obviously never change my oil.

Tesla has a service schedule it suggests:

https://www.teslamotors.com/support/service-plans

You will change your battery oil.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#122

Post by knz » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 5:40 PM UTC

AdrianB1 wrote: post #113

knz wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand your point that modern vehicles are relatively safe, but after seeing the result of a semi truck taking out a pickup truck on the Interstate yesterday I am seriously considering my choice to drive a compact vehicle. I assume larger vehicles have larger/longer crumple zones compared to compact vehicles and that higher vehicles have less chance of going under other vehicles? Of course it's zero sum if ever…

If you want to minimize the effects of the impact with a semi then the only real option is another semi; a 1 ton car or a 3 ton car makes no difference being hit by a 40 ton truck, but the 1 ton car consumes much less fuel/energy.

It was hit from the side I think? The height of the pickup definitely made a difference because most of the cabin was sitting up on the median rather than squished into the barrier like the rest of the truck. Your point about the weight is a good one in most circumstances though!

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#123

Post by kozak » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 5:42 PM UTC

grandalf wrote: post #90

ljf wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I like this idea, but as someone that recently survived a fairly nasty car accident at less than 60mph, I'd want to see what safety measures you also got for that money. Nothing makes me more happy than that I had the accident in my volvo. It was a decently priced 2nd hand car, but it's safety features are what saved me.

Indeed. It would be interesting to see what kind of star-rating could be achieved using inexpensive technology. Things like crumple zones and steel reinforced panels are cheap, things like AWD traction control are somewhat more expensive. In terms of overall platform cost, though, I'd expect it to be possible to design a very safe car without increasing the price significantly, perhaps somewhat at the expense of aest…

Dacia-branded cars from Renault/Nissan are just like that. You can go to euroncap.com and watch their A-pillars crumple upon impact. But they still do pull off their quite decent three stars, and are considered quite safe cars as for third-world markets. They are engineered to have just enough safety for their target markets, and nothing above that.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#124

Post by mac01021 » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 5:43 PM UTC

unprepare wrote: post #81

pmontra wrote: post #13

A car sharing service in Milan, Italy, is using small two seater electric cars from China. Prompted by this article I finally investigated and found them at http://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/China-eec-l7e-80-elect... They're quoted with a maximum price of $8000. They're definitely made for driving inside a city. Not very good suspensions (don't drive too fast on cobble stones) but good torque (easily beats a gas…

>Would I survive a crash? They're very tiny... IIRC The smart car beats the Hummer in crash test ratings....

I'm skeptical that, in a head on collision between the two, the smart car is a safer place to be.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#125

Post by mac01021 » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 5:48 PM UTC

madaxe_again wrote: post #22

jblok wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting idea buying property on busy roads, but why would they become less busy solely because of electric cars? Yes, they may be quieter and cleaner, but you still have the eyesore of a road, and the associated people that roads bring.

Because with EVs we will see the rise of autonomous vehicles - once you have a car that is run by a computer and powered by electricity, and self-driving tech is available and affordable, it becomes a no-brainer. Once autonomous vehicles become prevalent, traffic volume should drop, as we'll see less car ownership and more car use, meaning fewer cars parking, better traffic flow, etc. I believe the future of road tra…

Aren't electricality and autonomy, as properties of vehicles, pretty much independent of one another?

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#126

Post by peppaz » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 5:54 PM UTC

knz wrote: post #108

S_A_P wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like the size = safety is fallacious. Size can equal safety, but its not a guarantee. Sure I would not want to get hit by a 3 ton lifted SUV with ranch style bumpers on it. I would feel that way even if what I were driving was a 3 ton suv with the same bumpers. There was an NHTSA video a few years back of a modern chevy impala hitting a 1959 impala and the much larger 59 getting demolished, while the new one h…

I understand your point that modern vehicles are relatively safe, but after seeing the result of a semi truck taking out a pickup truck on the Interstate yesterday I am seriously considering my choice to drive a compact vehicle. I assume larger vehicles have larger/longer crumple zones compared to compact vehicles and that higher vehicles have less chance of going under other vehicles? Of course it's zero sum if ever…

Not to be a Debbie Downer - but about 5 years ago my two good friends were driving in a medium sized car in Brooklyn, when an Expedition crossed the double yellow going about 60 miles an hour and literally ran over the entire drivers side half of the car, flattening it.

The driver sadly died while the passenger went unscathed.

The next day, my Dad sold my sister's tiny, low-riding Saturn and got her a higher-riding CRV. I don't blame him, and now riding in low-sitting cars frightens me a tiny bit on the highways.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#127

Post by stcredzero » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 5:59 PM UTC

JshWright wrote: post #71

S_A_P wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like the size = safety is fallacious. Size can equal safety, but its not a guarantee. Sure I would not want to get hit by a 3 ton lifted SUV with ranch style bumpers on it. I would feel that way even if what I were driving was a 3 ton suv with the same bumpers. There was an NHTSA video a few years back of a modern chevy impala hitting a 1959 impala and the much larger 59 getting demolished, while the new one h…

The thing 'size' gets you is crumple zones. A bigger vehicle has a lot more material that can be engineered to deform and absorb the energy of the impact, spreading the deceleration over a longer period of time. A small car can be designed to prevent intrusion into the passenger compartment, but it can't do anything about the g-forces of the collision (which can seriously ruin your day...).

The thing 'size' gets you is crumple zones. A bigger vehicle has a lot more material that can be engineered to deform and absorb the energy of the impact

Not the only thing. Recall your high school physics. Crank through the basic motion equations for inelastic equations. The more massive object experiences less change in momentum. All things being equal, passengers of the more massive vehicle are going to experience lower g-forces.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#128

Post by sokoloff » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 6:00 PM UTC

dsfyu404ed wrote: post #12

A cheap used economy car will still have the lowest cost per mile for a very long time.... When you factor purchase price into the equation gas vehicles win by a long ways since you need X years of EV economy cars on the market before you can get an X year old used EV. EV's will need to fill the same market segment as today's Chevy Aveos and Toyota Yarii (plural of Yaris?) for a decade or more before they're competit…

I'm a big fan of the economy/value of used cars, but I don't think that we'll be seeing 15 year old used lithium-batteried EVs being viable. The capacity losses from time on the Li batteries are just too severe over that timeframe, and dumping oil into a 15-year old IC engine is worthwhile. Renewing the battery pack on a 10-15 year old EV isn't worthwhile (or is worthwhile, but puts a floor on the used car price).

My household has a 190K mile, 2005 Honda CR-V and a 6K mile 2015 LEAF. That Honda is likely to be viable beyond when the LEAF is viable. (Assuming no accidents, rust will eventually get the Honda and battery capacity will get the LEAF.)

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#129

Post by mark-r » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 6:06 PM UTC

mikeyouse wrote: post #120

mark-r wrote: post #49

Such an interesting premise, such a flawed assumption... An electric car shares most of its parts with a gas one, so you can't expect any savings from economies of scale there. Going back to the Model T for the cost curve is just laughable.

> An electric car shares most of its parts with a gas one Definitely depends on how you qualify 'most'. An electric car has nearly none of the mechanical complexity of an ICE car. Look at the engine bay and undercarriage of a typical internal combustion car: http://i.imgur.com/uDxSsR2.jpg Gas tank, fuel lines, transmission, engine, drive shaft, spark plugs / distributor cap, muffler, exhaust system, fuel pump, engine…

By "most" I'm thinking of things like the body, interior, wheels, bumpers, steering, etc. Since I'm ignorant of the cost breakdown of these components, I can't say for sure if it's over or under the 50% mark, but my gut says over.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#130

Post by tomtang0514 » Thu, Apr 28, 2016, 6:27 PM UTC

Retric wrote: post #88

Someone1234 wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This issue was covered in great depth when the Smart Car (e.g. Fortwo) got popular in Europe. Smart Cars have a lot of safety features, seat belts, airbags (4x), ABS, stability control, but the question was really about impact distribution. They put in a tridion protection cell[0] and moved the engine to the back to offer SOME crumple at the front. The Euro NCAP rated it 4/5, IIHS rated it "good" but it later failed…

If your driving in a city and never break 45mph then overall risks change significantly. I drive a relatively small car for the US, and it's about the minimum I would consider safe at 70MPH. But, if you are spending 98% of your time in the city then simply renting a larger car becomes very viable. You can rent a mid size SUV at ~600$ per week and for a longer vacation you can upsize for minimal cost. Further, if your…

FYI, the IIHS small overlap frontal test, which I personally consider as the "hardest" test today, is done at 40mph. By that saying, a crash in the city can be worse than the test result.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurance_Institute_for_Highwa...