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Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

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Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#121

Post by x0x0 »

mylons wrote: post #117
supster wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their lock-in is their network effects. Airbnb has a huge selection of locations in many major cities around the world. Uber has an incredible number of drivers and riders on the system globally at all times of the day. Competitors will have a very hard time replicating that.

airbnb has a real problem: VRBO. VRBO is routinely cheaper than airbnb, has been around longer, and doesn't have the legal issues, and has the support of the baby boomers. Good luck, airbnb.

Have you ever tried to rent from VRBO? I did a couple years ago and have never been back.

Approx 30 calls, 6 or 7 responded, a couple of those hadn't kept their calendars up-to-date, and only 2 actually were available and matched the info on the site. I was doing my best to spend $6k on a ski vacation and vrbo just didn't want to cooperate. The whole thing was a giant waste of time.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#122

Post by analyst74 »

As they always say, this time is different.

My opinion is that the tech sector has greatly expanded since 2000, not just in amount of investment available, but also types of business tech companies are actually in.

So maybe there is a web/ad bubble and it might pop, but how much that affects individual company is more nuanced.

Unsophisticated investors might still lump Google/Twitter/Tesla/AMD into the same "tech sector", but they will find the signal they receive is very mixed and difficult to analyze.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#123

Post by profinger »

I'm not surprised at all. Etsy used to be user based and hand made. Now it's just another market place. They still act like they try to enforce "non-mass-produced" but there are countless examples of the opposite being true. Places where people have directly reported instances of this and the problem is still present.

I think the problem is that they stopped caring about their user base and, therefore, became less ubiquitous and people saw that and were like "oh.. time to value them lower.."

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#125

Post by cowpewter »

PhasmaFelis wrote: post #63
smegel wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yahoo: from $11 in 2011 to $50 in 2014 to $30 in 2016 I am actually surprised Yahoo is worth three times as much today as it was in 2011.

I realized that I'm not sure what Yahoo actually does these days. So I looked at their website, and...I still have no idea. Their homepage is set up like a sketchy news aggregator. Wikipedia says they do a list of things (mail, video sharing, online mapping...) that Google and others obviously completely dominate. As a side effect, I'm recalling the days when Yahoo was a directory of websites, and getting nostalgic f…

They own stuff. Like Flickr and Tumblr.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#126

Post by sly_foxx »

bpodgursky wrote: post #106
danieltillett wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have very clear business models, but even if they capture 100% of their market the possible revenue can’t support their current valuations. I think both these businesses are fantastic businesses that will make a lot of money, but I would not buy at their current valuations.

What? AirBnB's valuation is 25B. It could make a trivial dent in the worldwide hotel market and crush that valuation many times over. Uber is 50B. The global taxi market alone is worth many multiples of 50B, and that's not counting all the delivery services, bus/public transit-replacements etc that Uber is pushing for. I'm not saying these companies WILL capture all of their current markets, but it's ridiculous to sa…

These hypothetical situations need to be taken with a grain of salt. Many big companies have tried expanding and taking over other markers, unrelated to their core business - they usually fail or acquire a company in that space(e.g. Google-YT; Facebook-Instagram etc.)

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#127

Post by askafriend »

criley2 wrote: post #61
pyrrhotech wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Soon we will see uber, airbnb and dropbox added to this list. The problem is the new VC-funded startup model is a sham to rip off the public. Basically build a bunch of hype around fad-based, unprofitable companies with unsustainable business models and capture massive valuation of ~50x sales before going IPO and then insiders dump all the overvalued shares on the naive dumb money and only stick around long enough to…

Disagree entirely. Twitter? No good way to monetize. Groupon? Failed to monetize effectively after virality faded and without a moat competitors did the same thing. Yelp? A web version of the BBB protection scheme whose profit comes from the shake down protection racket against small businesses, not from users. Zynga had no moat and other companies quickly did the same thing with much leaner overhead, like King and a…

If Box was overvalued then Dropbox must just be fucked.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#128

Post by kzhahou »

w1ntermute wrote: post #50
pyrrhotech wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Soon we will see uber, airbnb and dropbox added to this list. The problem is the new VC-funded startup model is a sham to rip off the public. Basically build a bunch of hype around fad-based, unprofitable companies with unsustainable business models and capture massive valuation of ~50x sales before going IPO and then insiders dump all the overvalued shares on the naive dumb money and only stick around long enough to…

> The problem is the new VC-funded startup model is a sham to rip off the public. That has always been the VC-funded startup model. The difference between now and the dotcom boom is that the public isn't so gullible anymore (or at least not so soon after the financial crisis). Your grandma in Wisconsin has long since shut down her brokerage account, and has no intention of reopening it.

Not trying to SJW here, but please note that the "grandma" meme is based on the idea that women and old people are unsavvy.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#129

Post by askafriend »

sumzup wrote: post #97
criley2 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disagree entirely. Twitter? No good way to monetize. Groupon? Failed to monetize effectively after virality faded and without a moat competitors did the same thing. Yelp? A web version of the BBB protection scheme whose profit comes from the shake down protection racket against small businesses, not from users. Zynga had no moat and other companies quickly did the same thing with much leaner overhead, like King and a…

Twitter's able to monetize; it's just not able to sustain user growth.

The user numbers have basically flat for many quarters now. It's really really bad.
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