We’re not there yet, but the obvious endgame of the present bubble insanity is open models running on local hardware and devices are “good enough” for most use cases. That will completely implode what’s going on at the moment in tech.
A 10 year old Xeon is all you need
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Re: A 10 year old Xeon is all you need
#112We’re not there yet, but the obvious endgame of the present bubble insanity is open models running on local hardware and devices are “good enough” for most use cases. That will completely implode what’s going on at the moment in tech.
this is sorta like saying that being able to run your blog on your laptop will completely implode the cloud business
Re: A 10 year old Xeon is all you need
#113We’re not there yet, but the obvious endgame of the present bubble insanity is open models running on local hardware and devices are “good enough” for most use cases. That will completely implode what’s going on at the moment in tech.
This. OpenAI and Anthropic are ultimately compute infrastructure plays and not really AI. Everyone will have models, they'll have the ability to run them. This is why the GPU shortage is in their favor.
Re: A 10 year old Xeon is all you need
#114This is great work. I'd love if anyone knows how I might fare with an old Dell R710 with 2 x Xeon 5600 (12 cores total) and 96Gb of DDR3.
Re: A 10 year old Xeon is all you need
#115Hi HN. I wrote this post after getting frustrated by the lack of ways to run the new Gemma 4 Drafter models, and mainstream tools not prioritizing this, and hiding all the performance levers. I ended up getting a modern 26B MoE model (Gemma 4) running at reading speed on an old recycled server with a single Xeon E5-2620 v4 and 128GB of DDR3 RAM (and no GPU). It took a lot of work, but it actually worked out somehow.…
Something doesn't add up here. As someone who has only recently built a home-server from an E5-26xx v2 on DDR3 RAM (because I have a sh*tload of 32g DDR3 DIMMs), I can confidently say that the newer cores (E5-26xx v3 and v4) only run on DDR4 memory... So either you have a v2 instead of a v4 (and run on DDR3 memory), or you have a v4 but with DDR4 memory (not DDR3) Everything else doesn't work
Re: A 10 year old Xeon is all you need
#116Earlier quoted context omitted.
20 tokens per second for eval time is the killer here. It means you can't use this to process any meaningful amount of text. A GPU typically processes close to 1000 tokens/s during eval.
I'm pretty sure eval time is token generation time where it's actually outputting new tokens. If you're getting a thousand per second on that, I'd love to know on what.
Hyperscalers can perform this evaluation very quickly because evaluation can be significantly parallelized. The layer `i` output of token `j` only requires access to the layer `i-1` output of all previous tokens, so a parallel frontier develops. Token (0,0) [(token, layer)] is processed first, then tokens (0,1) and (1,0) can be processed in parallel, then (0,2), (1,1), and (2,0), and so on.
The maximum parallel width becomes equal to the number of layers in the model. Gemma 4 26B-A4B model discussed in this article evidently has 30 layers, giving a 30-fold speedup if the system were otherwise unconstrained (all layers can be run in parallel, and one full set of layer outputs is completed in the KV pass for each pass of the parallel sweep).
In the specific output above, however, the input prompt is only seven tokens long so there are probably considerable non-amortized spinup effects at play.
Re: A 10 year old Xeon is all you need
#117Earlier quoted context omitted.
I find that hard to believe. The AI companies will want to control what's possible and find new things to do that "need" their services. Otherwise it would be like Intel and Microsoft had decided in the year 2000 that computers are "good enough" now and we would have explored what's possible with that hardware ever since.
> Otherwise it would be like Intel and Microsoft had decided in the year 2000 that computers are "good enough" now and we would have explored what's possible with that hardware ever since. I think you've misunderstood what good enough means in the context - which is a model capable of completing the tasks assigned to it without having the breadth of full generalization. Your analogy breaks down because of this - we d…
> a model capable of completing the tasks assigned to it
The thing is, the "task assigned to it" is changing with improved capabilities. If everyone around you in 2036 is using general AI to do amazing stuff, you will probably have little interest in vibe coding slop like it's 2026.
Re: A 10 year old Xeon is all you need
#118We’re not there yet, but the obvious endgame of the present bubble insanity is open models running on local hardware and devices are “good enough” for most use cases. That will completely implode what’s going on at the moment in tech.
Re: A 10 year old Xeon is all you need
#119Earlier quoted context omitted.
This. OpenAI and Anthropic are ultimately compute infrastructure plays and not really AI. Everyone will have models, they'll have the ability to run them. This is why the GPU shortage is in their favor.
Do you think there will still be an incentive to release weights in that scenario? Everyone will have models only if there continue to be companies releasing weights.