Somebody should these track these people down, and say to them:
Nice insider trading scam you have going. Be a shame if something happened to you.
Then defenetrate them.
Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
111–120 of 263 posts
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#112Why can’t the markets just forbid transactions that happen within 48 hours of resolution?
What does that solve? Wouldn't the insiders in e.g. the Iran War just have to place their bets 3 days before?
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#113Good for those who made the money. I would have done so had I had such insider info, as long as it didn't compromise any operation.
Do you not think that that would have a negative impact on the world? or do you not care, or is this "the world is going to hell so I may as well get mine"?
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#114What value do prediction markets give to anyone not in the insider trading class? I predict these will be banned when someone finally uses them as an "assassination market".
Government leaders and political policy advisors, intelligence agencies, hedge funds & quants, and large corporations doing crowdsourced forecasting for sure. That's probably why they haven't just been made illegal - the very policy makers are utilizing the data streams from this to predict the near-future to a decent degree. Companies like Cultivate Labs [1] go into the maths of it all but if you prefer videos Hyper…
Thanks for the links, very interesting.
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#115According to the Guardian, clicking around on some websites.
I guess, how many not perfectly timed bets did traders bet on these things?
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#116It's deeply American how so many of these articles about Kalshi or Polymarket frame the issue as something that can be solved on the American end with the stroke of a pen, especially in a multipolar world where American sanctions increasingly fail. These markets are global with global demand and many of the insiders are on the receiving end of American foreign policy. If an Iranian with a starlink sees a b-2 spirit f…
you may have missed that all those have been happening for months and are tightly tied to the trump administration ?
same administration who has a son sitting on the board and a father president who has lifted all sanctions and investigations.
we even have video of representatives placing their bets or buying stock during session, right before voting on the matter.
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#117Say whatever you want about the merits of prediction markets. But I just don't see a way those benefits outweigh the societal dangers of these constant reminders that people in or close to power can freely profit from their positions in the ways the rest of the population can't. There's always talk about the dangers of disincentivizing job creators, but what happens when a society routinely disincentives job havers i…
The oil trade structure actually does make sense, because this is how you buy oil, or really any commodity that takes so much space and weight. You order it ahead of time, then if you hold till the contract settles you are allowed to pick it up from the place and in the way designated in the contract specification. In fact you are obliged to pick it up, that's why prices can go negative in exceptional situations. Pre…
>The oil trade structure actually does make sense, because this is how you buy oil, or really any commodity that takes so much space and weight. You order it ahead of time, then if you hold till the contract settles you are allowed to pick it up from the place and in the way designated in the contract specification. In fact you are obliged to pick it up, that's why prices can go negative in exceptional situations. Prediction markets are then just a clean cash-only derivative.
You just described what is happening, you didn't actually provide any reason for why this is good for anyone but the individuals profiting from it.
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#118You'd have to be spectacularly stupid to bet on these kinds of things without having insider knowledge, because you ought to know good and damn well by now that the people with insider knowledge are DEFINITELY betting on them.
Do you buy oil or products made with it? Then sorry, you made a bet, and in fact you were just ripped off by your own government for the third time in a row.
This is not a "crypto prediction market" problem.
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#119You'd have to be spectacularly stupid to bet on these kinds of things without having insider knowledge, because you ought to know good and damn well by now that the people with insider knowledge are DEFINITELY betting on them.
Even if you are not "betting" similar trades are happening in the stock market as well. Large movements in oil futures shortly before policy changes are announced.
Insider trading is at least regulated in the stock market, albeit imperfectly. Imagine how much worse it would be if C-levels could just short their own stock during a board meeting. No one without insider knowledge would touch it.
Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war
#120Earlier quoted context omitted.
Trump already said he will do this. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-plans-to-pardo... https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politic...
Keep in mind that preëmptive pardons have not been upheld by the courts [1]. [1] https://www.criminallawlibraryblog.com/preemptive-pardons-co...
If that reached the supreme court however, precedent sadly might not matter too much.