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Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

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Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#111

Post by bargainbin »

pinkmuffinere wrote: post #74
sterlingcrispin wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes exactly. The bot has zero risk management and I have a strong disclaimer on the github it is essentially a meme. 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. There's a good dataset on huggingface if you wanted to do some data science https://huggingface.co/datasets/SII-WANGZJ/Polymarket_data

> 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. I bet the average price for a no bet across these markets is 73 cents.

71 cents*, the bookie gets a cut either way it goes.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#112

Post by lazyasciiart »

raincole wrote: post #56
sterlingcrispin wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes exactly. The bot has zero risk management and I have a strong disclaimer on the github it is essentially a meme. 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. There's a good dataset on huggingface if you wanted to do some data science https://huggingface.co/datasets/SII-WANGZJ/Polymarket_data

> 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. I wonder what it means exactly. Typical Polymarket looks like this: X happens before May. [Yes][No] X happens before June. [Yes][No] X happens before July. [Yes][No] ... So even if X ended up happens in December, it's still 12.5% Yes and 87.5% No?

And how do you report it in May?

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#113

Post by kristopolous »

gowld wrote: post #104
kristopolous wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would outcomes match perceptions? The whole premise of gambling is that they don't

The whole premise of prediction markets is that the few people whose perception do match outcomes make bets to push the money-weighted average perception toward outcomes. If perceptions still don't match outcomes at that point, average return is 0 minus transactions, with high variance.

huh? that sounds like ideology and not empirical observation.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#114

Post by infecto »

withinrafael wrote: post #77

Very confusing. Polymarket doesn't allow US use/users. How are folks in the US participating on Polymarket? (VPNs and the like reportedly don't help either due to KYC policies.)

Polymarket has been live in the US since the beginning of the year. There is a queue but it’s absolutely live. And before that you could still use it so long as you did not use a VPN.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#116

Post by kelvinjps10 »

Bratmon wrote: post #53
nkrisc wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what markets like Polymarket boil down to. Normies can't win. Some will, of course, but that's just chance and there's no way if ensuring it's you. It's really no different than a casino: if you ever find yourself with more money than you walked in with, cash out and leave. Best strategy for most people though is to simply not participate and you'll break even.

You say that like it's bad thing, but really it's great! It gives us normies a way to see what the powerful are thinking.

normies that don't enter the game, because the ones that do just loose their money

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#117

Post by kelvinjps10 »

conductr wrote: post #58
nkrisc wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what markets like Polymarket boil down to. Normies can't win. Some will, of course, but that's just chance and there's no way if ensuring it's you. It's really no different than a casino: if you ever find yourself with more money than you walked in with, cash out and leave. Best strategy for most people though is to simply not participate and you'll break even.

Except, the thing is, a decent portion of the population enjoys throwing money away in casinos. If they feel a similar level of enjoyment/entertainment from this type of market, then it's no different and they're playing for a non-financial purpose that your calculus isn't pricing in. Maybe a stretch but theoretically, if they enjoy it enough, it can serve as a much cheaper alternative to a casino and thus could actu…

how can it be cheaper? people will spend the same amount or even more considering that is more easy to spend more since it's digital

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#118

Post by HWR_14 »

Spooky23 wrote: post #14
nemomarx wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This makes sense to me, but isn't there a risk of increasing the potential payoff high enough that someone is motivated to go out and make the yes side happen? Consider this bot running on us military outcomes or something.

You're thinking like an engineer and making the laughable assumption that "prediction markets" are markets. It's totally unregulated with all sorts of grifts and cheats. One of the platforms was promoting a high-return bet against Rory at the Masters yesterday. You can make money off of all sorts of stuff. You can "sell" the bets, so there's lots of live pump and dump. We've gone full circle. The bookie with no neck…

Wouldn't a high-return bet against Rory make sense? He was very likely to win.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#119

Post by some_random »

sterlingcrispin wrote: post #44
tekno45 wrote: post #18

https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043723823678382254 They admit no returns. But it does seem like a fun project and nowhere does it say anything about returns or profits so not scammy imo just funny meme backed code

Yes exactly. The bot has zero risk management and I have a strong disclaimer on the github it is essentially a meme. 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. There's a good dataset on huggingface if you wanted to do some data science https://huggingface.co/datasets/SII-WANGZJ/Polymarket_data

It doesn't matter if 99% resolve no, if they're priced appropriately betting no on every single one won't make you money.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#120

Post by some_random »

wormpilled wrote: post #4

Basically arbitraging human imagination. People love coming up with fantastical concepts because they get attention, but the more exciting a market is, the less likely it is to actually happen. Reality is usually boring.

The problem with that thesis is that this doesn't seem to actually work as a strategy
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