US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire • Hacker News Board

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#111

Post by technothrasher » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 12:43 AM UTC

ajross wrote: post #98

scoofy wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly? I presume Trump and Iran both gain the ability to kick the can... which they both want. That ten-point plan is 'unrealistic' but he gets to beat his cheats and it looks like both sides are 'claiming' victory here. That this isn't a workable long-term solution seems almost irrelevant. We're at a point where our bargaining frictions are so high, that we'd both rather remain in this standoff as long as possibl…

> That this isn't a workable long-term solution IMHO that's bad analysis. This is a VERY good solution from Iran's perspective. They stared down a superpower and won. They've gone from an international pariah and nuissance to a genuine regional overlord in a single tweet. "Whoah there, folks. Stop your tankers please. Thanks. Last year was rough for our farmers. We're increasing tolls on the straight again. Don't lik…

> We're increasing tolls on the straight again.

They're increasing tolls on the strait again. This strait isn't particularly straight.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#112

Post by rootusrootus » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 12:44 AM UTC

Krssst wrote: post #106

eclipticplane wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> what did the US gain out of this Market manipulation and the media largely forgetting about a certain set of files that reference many people in powerful positions.

Less oil on the market meaning higher fuel prices with the US being a net exporter. Not sure that was the plan but it looks like a benefit.

> looks like a benefit

To who? I don't think the people paying half again as much at the pump feel like it benefited them.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#113

Post by AnimalMuppet » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 12:44 AM UTC

bigyabai wrote: post #56

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

The fact that none of these were considered critical discussion points tells you just how desperate the US/Israel coalition is for a ceasefire. It really does feel like the rescue op was a failed raid on Isfahan, and this is the Plan B.

No, what I think it really tells you is that these just Iran's proposal. So far as I know, the US (and Israel) have not actually agreed to these.

I've seen several posts here saying that they have, but what I haven't seen is any evidence or links. Until I do, I reserve the right to believe that the US has not actually agreed to Iran's plan.

But my (grandparent) post was off. If these are Iran's proposed points, of course they're going to say that Israel stops attacking Hezbullah but that Iran is free to keep arming them.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#114

Post by scoofy » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 12:44 AM UTC

ajross wrote: post #98

scoofy wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly? I presume Trump and Iran both gain the ability to kick the can... which they both want. That ten-point plan is 'unrealistic' but he gets to beat his cheats and it looks like both sides are 'claiming' victory here. That this isn't a workable long-term solution seems almost irrelevant. We're at a point where our bargaining frictions are so high, that we'd both rather remain in this standoff as long as possibl…

> That this isn't a workable long-term solution IMHO that's bad analysis. This is a VERY good solution from Iran's perspective. They stared down a superpower and won. They've gone from an international pariah and nuissance to a genuine regional overlord in a single tweet. "Whoah there, folks. Stop your tankers please. Thanks. Last year was rough for our farmers. We're increasing tolls on the straight again. Don't lik…

Until they are able to rebuild their country, they are actually in a very, very bad position. Saving face is great and all, but rockets are still hitting much of their infrastructure anyway.

My point is that their demands are not realistic. That the can has been kicked is good for Iran, it's also good for Trump. Conflict here is bad for both parties, the problem is there I currently don't see a way to step back from the precipice at this point.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#115

Post by chatmasta » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 12:44 AM UTC

3eb7988a1663 wrote: post #43

"We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated." The ten point plan which had previously been rejected outright? The 10-point plan which leaves Iran in an incredibly better finan…

What are the chances Claude was used on both sides of this negotiation?

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#116

Post by babypuncher » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 12:44 AM UTC

3eb7988a1663 wrote: post #43

"We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated." The ten point plan which had previously been rejected outright? The 10-point plan which leaves Iran in an incredibly better finan…

It successfully pushed the Epstein files out of the news cycle for an entire month.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#117

Post by incompatible » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 12:44 AM UTC

3eb7988a1663 wrote: post #43

"We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated." The ten point plan which had previously been rejected outright? The 10-point plan which leaves Iran in an incredibly better finan…

Trump kept his name in the headlines, for a narcissist that's all that matters.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#118

Post by yoyohello13 » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 12:44 AM UTC

avidiax wrote: post #87

100ms wrote: post #48

I don't understand enough about the US system of government. Are there any hopes of seeing Trump unseated before his term is up? If not for the astonishing damage he's doing to the western world, then only for the sheer fatigue from having every media outlet saturated by him on a daily basis.

Barring something catastrophic happening, I would bet that nothing will unseat Trump until January 20, 2027, at 12:00 PM (noon). At that point, when J.D. Vance is inaugurated, he would be allowed to run and serve for 2 additional full terms (10 years total as president). Before that, his partial term would count as a full term, and he could only run, win and serve one additional term. This is all based on the 22nd Am…

This seems extremely likely. I’m already unconvinced the elections are going to be fair this year, but I am certain an impeachment would piss the conservatives off so much there would be another red swing during 2028 elections. Then after 4 years of JD Vance we will be living in the United States of Jesus so nothing will matter much anymore.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#119

Post by pageandrew » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 12:45 AM UTC

etc-hosts wrote: post #100

pageandrew wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Source? Do you seriously think the US just agreed to accept Iranian nuclear enrichment?

The CIA (lets for now ignore the alleged Director of the CIA) has for years been saying Iran does not have a nuclear weapons program. Iran has been saying for years it does not have a nuclear weapons program. Every country has the right to pursue a civilian nuclear energy program.

The IAEA said earlier this year that Iran had enriched uranium to 60%. Uranium is enriched to 3-5% for nuclear energy, and 90%+ for weapons.

Don't be silly. Iran has a nuclear weapons program. Were they actively racing to a bomb? No. (That's what the CIA was saying). Did they enrich uranium to near-weapons grade so they _could_ race to a bomb, in a matter of weeks, if they decided to do so? Absolutely.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-stored-highly...

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#120

Post by gamegod » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 12:45 AM UTC

Krssst wrote: post #106

eclipticplane wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> what did the US gain out of this Market manipulation and the media largely forgetting about a certain set of files that reference many people in powerful positions.

Less oil on the market meaning higher fuel prices with the US being a net exporter. Not sure that was the plan but it looks like a benefit.

Giving the oil companies, some of the richest companies on the planet, MORE money is a benefit? Is that your idea of good governance? You don't think there's better uses of that money that's coming right out of your pocket and everybody elses?