Earlier quoted context omitted.
White noise is random, so it's incompressible by definition. By JPG or by any other method no matter how clever.
What you're saying is only true for lossless compression, if you're fine discarding data you can compress anything. Try it yourself: magick -size 512x512 xc:gray +noise Random noise.png magick noise.png -interlace Plane -quality 75 compressed_noise.jpg Result is ~380k smaller and doesn't look much different at 100%.
Google's 200M-parameter time-series foundation model with 16k context
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Re: Google's 200M-parameter time-series foundation model with 16k context
#112I somehow find the concept of a general time series model strange. How can the same model predict egg prices in Italy, and global inflation in a reliable way? And how would you even use this model, given that there are no explanations that help you trust where the prediction comes from…
Easy, both go up.
Re: Google's 200M-parameter time-series foundation model with 16k context
#113Re: Google's 200M-parameter time-series foundation model with 16k context
#114So the time series are provided with no context? It's just trained on lots of sets of numbers? Then you give it a new set of numbers and it guesses the rest, again with no context? My guess as to how this would work: the machine will first guess from the data alone if this is one of the categories it has already seen/inferred (share prices, google trend cat searches etc.) Then it'll output a plausible completion for…
I'm curious as to how this would compare to having an actual statistician work on your data, because I feel that time series work is as much an art as it is a science. To start, selection of an appropriate timeframe is always important to ensure our data doesn't resemble either white noise or a random walk, and that we've given the response time of our data appropriate consideration! I find that people unfamiliar with statistics miss this point - I get people asking why I might use a weekly or biweekly timeframe for data when they reckon I should be using hourly or daily data. Selection of appropriate predictors is also important for multivariate time series and I have no idea how this model approaches that.
I also have questions about how interpretable the results outputted by this model are. With a more "traditional" model, I can easily look at polyroot or the [P/E]ACF, as well as various other diagnostic tools, and select a relatively simple model that results in a decent 95% prediction interval. I've always been very wary of black box models simply because I wouldn't be able to explain any findings derived from them well.
From skimming the blog post, is MAE all they're using for measuring the output quality?
Re: Google's 200M-parameter time-series foundation model with 16k context
#115Earlier quoted context omitted.
I tend to avoid time series forecasting when I can help it because I find it hard to communicate to stakeholders that a neural network (or another method) is not an oracle. If you are talking about granularity of observations, it would depend on what you are trying to predict (the price in an hour or the price in 12 months?) and how quickly you need the prediction (100ms? Tomorrow morning?). If I had infinite data I…
You can use lightgbm with appropriate feature engineering.
Re: Google's 200M-parameter time-series foundation model with 16k context
#116Earlier quoted context omitted.
Time series forecasting has proven useful in a number of different domains from weather to health monitoring. Sure you can easily over fit on the training data, but in general that's a data source/input problem where you need many high quality data sources to find the signal in the noise. The world is chaotic sure, but there are still truths to be found in noisy time series data; saying that the world is too random t…
I agree when it comes to highly niche applications with a generous SNR. Universal models though? And I haven't even mentioned the fact that en mass forecasting ITSELF may influence the subject of forecasting.