Germany desperately needs a wake-up call in the form of recession. German car industry has been non-competitive for multiple years now. Instead of letting it fail, the government kept on flushing money down the toilet and prolonging the inevitable. For a business, there's no incentive anymore to choose Germany over other EU countries. Cheap energy is gone. Germany is literally collapsing under its own weight: endless…
What metrics are you using to label it as non-competitive?
German industrial output falls to 2005 levels as auto sector craters
111–120 of 130 posts
Re: German industrial output falls to 2005 levels as auto sector craters
#112Earlier quoted context omitted.
But it is necessary to do anyway? Just accept the losses and move on. Eventually solar will take over everywhere regardless of what anyone does, or doesn't. A few years of perturbations don't matter.
basically, you are right. as the other commented said, "Europe cedes sovereignty with gas" be it Russian or American. The continent should be laser focused with renewables and other forms of energy generation (also nuclear, if necessary, even if i am not too happy about it)
We can see though that it turned out to be worse for Russia than for Europe: they haven't found another export market when Europe declined imports, only other candidate is China but knowing they are the only ones, they demanded, and got, deep discounts. Pricing of "Power of Siberia" supplies is not public and it's been claimed that given transportation costs, it actually sells gas cheaper than Russian internal prices.
Re: German industrial output falls to 2005 levels as auto sector craters
#113Earlier quoted context omitted.
Chinese cars are a lot more expensive outside of China than they are inside of China. And the difference is not just tariffs and shipping; they earn a lot more profit per car for exported cars than ones sold internally. IOW, they're not dumping, they're doing the opposite. I don't know why.
> IOW, they're not dumping, they're doing the opposite. I don't know why. If they're doing the opposite yet end up a lot cheaper with higher quality and more features, I'm really not sure what's going on. Don't see how they could be cheaper either.
1. Competition in China is fierce, there are over 100 car companies. A large fraction of them are losing money. BYD et al are lowering prices to drive their competitors in China bankrupt. They've got higher prices outside of China to enable this behaviour.
2. They're quite sensitive to the dumping charges, so bend over backwards to ensure they aren't.
Re: German industrial output falls to 2005 levels as auto sector craters
#114Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Ukraine a working democracy ? Straw man. Moscow is ruled by idiots. The war in Ukraine was perhaps the largest own goal of the millennium, ahead of Brexit and possibly right behind—worst case—the Iraq War. > is it feasible for a country right next to a colossal power to have independence ? Yes. Literally how alliances have worked since the Bronze Age.
> Straw man. Nope. Challenge to presuppositions. The argument would be valid only if Ukraine was a threat of a "working democracy" > Yes. Literally how alliances have worked since the Bronze Age. Since we are now past the Bronze age could you give me a contemporary example of a small country close to the US that is practically independent and is not meddled with ? > Moscow is ruled by idiots. Putin might be a power h…
You asserted that small states cannot stably border weak states. I am saying that’s obviously untrue.
You’re now adding a “practically independent and is not meddled with” condition, which is impossible to show for any state in human history since part of geopolitics is mutual meddling, you could literally describe any act of statecraft this way.
> there is one thing that he certainly isn't, an idiot. Neither is Lavrov
Putin was an idiot and surrounded by idiots when he launched the invasion. His intelligence was clearly no better than America’s, given he not only expected victory in days but didn’t bother to contingency plan. And his knowledge of his own military was clearly flawed given he attempted combined-arms strategy (like lightning warfare) without a military that practiced combined-arms maneuver outside special ops.
But Putin hasn’t been an idiot for his own interests. Putin and Lavrov’a families have extracted enough wealth that they’ll be fine. So have the oligarchs. This, of course, is lovely for American and British and Gulf financiers who get to extract and manage that wealth from Russia.
That’s why I didn’t say Putin or Lavrov are idiots, I said “Moscow is ruled by idiots.” The Moscow elite are corrupt to the point of self destruction. They’ve allowed themselves to be played by Washington and Beijing into selling out their country’s status as a global power in exchange for minor battlefield headlines. They continue a war that keeps getting them played, the latest phase which will involve their energy export competitors bankrolling the razing of Russia’s energy export infrastructure.
Re: German industrial output falls to 2005 levels as auto sector craters
#115Given that France is also starting to suffer badly, one thing to watch is more and more people demanding a cut to EU budget contributions from these countries. Its like 40 billion EUR worth of net transfers. Could make for explosive politics.
Much to my annoyance, despite this being practically a rounding error (like, 1% or so of GDP), the EU budget contributions absolutely did have this effect in the UK.
Re: German industrial output falls to 2005 levels as auto sector craters
#116Why is output falling? Are there other countries taking the market share? Or is there more to it?
They seppukued by walking away from cheap RU gas. Cheap RU gas isn't just power, it's cheap industrial feedstock/inputs. Renewable/nuclear does not replace this. So all the wank about their energy policy is distraction. TLDR: Competitive Germany industry needs cheap RU gas. Healthy German economy with 40% trade GDP needs US + PRC, then RoW markets. PRC market going away. Germany "chose" (maybe pressured) into expensi…
Re: German industrial output falls to 2005 levels as auto sector craters
#117Germany desperately needs a wake-up call in the form of recession. German car industry has been non-competitive for multiple years now. Instead of letting it fail, the government kept on flushing money down the toilet and prolonging the inevitable. For a business, there's no incentive anymore to choose Germany over other EU countries. Cheap energy is gone. Germany is literally collapsing under its own weight: endless…
> Germany desperately needs a wake-up call in the form of recession. German car industry has been non-competitive for multiple years now. Instead of letting it fail, the government kept on flushing money down the toilet and prolonging the inevitable. Just let it fail? I'm reminded of this, which I read recently about rare earths: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/12/business/china-rare-earth... : > Rare earth refinerie…
Don't get me wrong, I agree there is such a thing as "forget the comparative advantage of trade, this is national security", and I even think steel and cement need to be in that category right after farm subsidies, but also you do have to be strategic, and you don't want private corporations "too important to fail" which turn subsidies into shareholder returns without adding real value.
Re: German industrial output falls to 2005 levels as auto sector craters
#118Earlier quoted context omitted.
Much to my annoyance, despite this being practically a rounding error (like, 1% or so of GDP), the EU budget contributions absolutely did have this effect in the UK.
1% of GDP of an entire country is massive, that's not a rounding error!
Specifically, if you see a budget breakdown, generally things are rounded to the nearest 1%, and the sum of numbers shown often turns out not to be 100% because of that rounding.
Re: German industrial output falls to 2005 levels as auto sector craters
#119Earlier quoted context omitted.
basically, you are right. as the other commented said, "Europe cedes sovereignty with gas" be it Russian or American. The continent should be laser focused with renewables and other forms of energy generation (also nuclear, if necessary, even if i am not too happy about it)
With LNG, it's not as bad. It is about as bad as oil imports. No dependence is created because all LNG is the same and you can just buy it from anyone on the market - unlike a pipeline that creates a mutual dependence. We can see though that it turned out to be worse for Russia than for Europe: they haven't found another export market when Europe declined imports, only other candidate is China but knowing they are th…
Re: German industrial output falls to 2005 levels as auto sector craters
#120Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Germany desperately needs a wake-up call in the form of recession. German car industry has been non-competitive for multiple years now. Instead of letting it fail, the government kept on flushing money down the toilet and prolonging the inevitable. Just let it fail? I'm reminded of this, which I read recently about rare earths: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/12/business/china-rare-earth... : > Rare earth refinerie…
They would likely have been correct. Don't get me wrong, I agree there is such a thing as "forget the comparative advantage of trade, this is national security", and I even think steel and cement need to be in that category right after farm subsidies, but also you do have to be strategic, and you don't want private corporations "too important to fail" which turn subsidies into shareholder returns without adding real…