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Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

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Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#111

Post by aprilthird2021 »

latchkey wrote: post #101
gizajob wrote: post #5

Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…

> Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? Imagine asking these questions in the early 90's when "the web" was just getting started. Or when bitcoin was $0.10. These are the sorts of headlines people make fun of later on, “The internet is just a fad.” People learned their lessons and are way more willing to make bets on the fu…

Imagine asking these questions about the "metaverse" and cryptocurrencies just 2-3 years ago.

Some technologies are great, pioneering even, and full of potential, and still flop in the market.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#112

Post by aprilthird2021 »

gizajob wrote: post #84
ben_w wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? I think that's the wrong question: "impact" is necessary but not sufficient for "valuation", as the latter also requires you to not have much competition driving down your margin, and there's a lot of competition in AI software. NVIDIA, being the metaphorical shovel-seller, can probably justify current valuati…

Google Translate has been around for years, and runs on regular CPUs fine, so I personally wouldn’t classify it as current generation AI or predicated on Nvidia chips. Definitely a killer app though. Same as Google maps is a non-AI killer app.

Google Translate was probably the first commercial product to utilize Transformer architecture and also training it absolutely racked up a huge bill to NVidia probably even way back in the day up to now

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#113

Post by IncreasePosts »

gizajob wrote: post #105
Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good luck timing it. Shorting because it's dropping and then covering when it's going up how you end up losing money. By the time you see the short opportunity, or the opportunity to cover, it's too late. It's just like buying because something is going up and selling when it starts going down. It's a recipe for buying high and selling low.

Sure is. Nvidia buyers right now couldn’t be buying any higher though, and they’re still buying. I get a feeling like the shorting opportunities will be apparent when they present themselves. I’m not looking to put my house on shorting it down any time soon though, but I’ll be surprised if there isn’t some big corrections and market pain in the next 12 months the way this is going. And if not 12 months, then the resu…

This is what people have said about TSLA for like...a decade? And there have been only maybe 3 or 4 good times to short the stock, all obvious in retrospect.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#114

Post by int_19h »

SirMaster wrote: post #77
apsec112 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI has seen rapid efficiency improvements every year for the last decade, but the amount of computation used has gone up, not down. The improvements always go into making larger and more powerful models, not into just running the same models but at a lower cost per hour. https://epochai.org/blog/algorithmic-progress-in-language-mo...

But doesn't it feel like the larger models are seeing diminished returns compared to the smaller open models? Feels like they will eventually converge unless some big breakthrough happens that only benefits the large models.

Not at all. There's definitely a lot of hype about how "our 7B model is almost as good as GPT-4" etc, but upon close inspection, it turns out to be cherry picked meaningless numbers every single time.

At the same time, there's no evidence that even at the scale of GPT-4 they are seeing diminishing returns. I don't see why that would be the case, either, so long as there's more data to feed into the models. IMO the cliff will occur once the models become large enough that no amount of naturally sourced data is enough to saturate them, but, well, we aren't even at 1% of the Internet yet.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#115

Post by int_19h »

gizajob wrote: post #84
ben_w wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? I think that's the wrong question: "impact" is necessary but not sufficient for "valuation", as the latter also requires you to not have much competition driving down your margin, and there's a lot of competition in AI software. NVIDIA, being the metaphorical shovel-seller, can probably justify current valuati…

Google Translate has been around for years, and runs on regular CPUs fine, so I personally wouldn’t classify it as current generation AI or predicated on Nvidia chips. Definitely a killer app though. Same as Google maps is a non-AI killer app.

I'm not sure if that is what OP meant, but one thing that the current crop of top tier LLMs is extremely good at is translation. GPT-4 is good enough for Babelfish-style real time conversation on complicated topics for many languages.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#116

Post by jhallenworld »

gizajob wrote: post #75
bloopernova wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's just like the hype about self driving vehicles. 5 years ago I had bought into the hype and thought that most long haul truck drivers would be out of work by now.

Funny that isn’t it. I wonder if Tesla throwing $4billion of Nvidia GPUs into a data centre will be enough to solve it “this time”. Self-driving could easily become one of the pins that bursts Nvidias bubble if we don’t see spectacular improvements.

News today (from Nvidia!) was that Tesla isn't getting them, Elon redirected them to his new AI company.

The new AI has the same problem as AI for self driving- you can't trust it.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#117

Post by latchkey »

aprilthird2021 wrote: post #111
latchkey wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? Imagine asking these questions in the early 90's when "the web" was just getting started. Or when bitcoin was $0.10. These are the sorts of headlines people make fun of later on, “The internet is just a fad.” People learned their lessons and are way more willing to make bets on the fu…

Imagine asking these questions about the "metaverse" and cryptocurrencies just 2-3 years ago. Some technologies are great, pioneering even, and full of potential, and still flop in the market.

Poor choice of examples.

Bitcoin at $71k is hardly a flop.

That was a term coined by stephenson during the early web, 1992. Virtual worlds are still extremely popular.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#118

Post by zeroonetwothree »

sifar wrote: post #76
lucisferre wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is a great question and one I keep mulling over. I've been evaluating paid AI products like Co-pilot to try to determine if there is enough general purpose value there to justify it's cost. At $360 a year, the productivity benefit doesn't need to be huge to justify the cost, lets say you would probably want to so $500-1,000/yr in expense reduction. I can say for certain that I have found roughly enough b…

>> At $360 a year, the productivity benefit doesn't need to be huge to justify the cost, lets say you would probably want to so $500-1,000/yr in expense reduction. You also have to factor in the cost of ai's failure modes. Though it might be difficult to put a number on it.

Yes so it would be more correct to say “net productivity gain”. At which point it’s not as obvious is it?

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#119

Post by zeroonetwothree »

dvt wrote: post #44
digging wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> as a trained philosopher, I don't buy into the whole AGI nonsense Can you elaborate on why you believe AGI is nonsense? > ignoring the way more value-generating aspects (synthesis, categorization, summarization, etc.) Summarization is one of the most common applications of LLMs I see. I expect if I knew more precisely what you meant by the other two we'd find examples of those, too. Everybody is trying to find out…

> Can you elaborate on why you believe AGI is nonsense? John Searle is much smarter than I am and he elaborated plenty on this in the 80s. (But more saliently, I think it's absurd to think our brains, or brains in general, do polynomial curve fitting in any meaningful sense.) > Summarization is one of the most common applications of LLMs I see. This is true, though the workflow is extremely cumbersome. > People are d…

Searle only argues against artificial consciousness not artificial intelligence.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#120

Post by abduhl »

alberth wrote: post #67
gizajob wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s kind of my point in framing the question like that - we know WalMart and how ubiquitous it is (in America) and how it makes money, and it’s “moat” so it’s not a sexy business, but a totally solid one. So is what the market is pricing in really becoming silly now? I think Nvidia has a huge competitive advantage but I also think it could be undone within 3 years or so given how much money is now at stake. The ot…

> My ultimate worry is that Nvidia ... could pull the whole of the Nasdaq down when it blows It's already happened the other way . 50% of all S&P 500 growth comes from just 5-companies (Nvidia). Or said differently, 495-companies can only match what just 5-companies contributed (which Nvidia is 1 of those 5). https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meet-5-stocks-contributed-alm...

This is not news. Market gains generally have always been dragged along by a small percentage of companies: Focusing on aggregate shareholder outcomes, we find that the top-performing 2.4% of firms account for all of the $US 75.7 trillion in net global stock market wealth creation from 1990 to December 2020. Outside the US, 1.41% of firms account for the $US 30.7 trillion in net wealth creation.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3710251

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