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Hedge Funder Who Bet $100 Million On Facebook IPO Is Furious

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Re: Hedge Funder Who Bet $100 Million On Facebook IPO Is Furious

#111
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In fact, if an actual casino fucked up due to technical glitches, I think legally it's on them to fix it.

Nope.Vegas law says casinos are not liable for technical errors. There have been cases of slot machines setting off the giant "You Win Millions" buzzer but not getting it.

I'm curious; what's to prevent a casino from saying that prizes were actually technical errors whenever it was convenient to them?

Re: Hedge Funder Who Bet $100 Million On Facebook IPO Is Furious

#112
post #82
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're missing a point there. The information may be mostly white noise, but with that much data, even filtered by laws and ethics, statistics are powerful . You are not the customer; neither are the developers. It's Target. http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2012/02/16/how-targe...

I have no problem visualizing how Target is able to predict future purchases based on what items I've already bought or what items I'm browsing. I have trouble visualizing how anyone can predict future purchases based on me liking a picture of a cat or browsing through friends vacation photos. Unless they're planning on selling me cat vacations...

They just have to correlate: people who browse cat photos at 3 am and "like" these specific ones tend to buy canned beans within the next 3 days. It doesn't have to make sense as long as they can derive correlations from it.

Re: Hedge Funder Who Bet $100 Million On Facebook IPO Is Furious

#113
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you. For all the startups that wanted to be the "Facebook of X"... if Facebook couldn't do it, why could they?

Mos' def. They now have a reason to start looking at a revenue sources that aren't based on ads. Every time I hear about a startup trying to shoe in an ad-based business model where you could make money selling directly or via high value intent-based referral fees to complementary businesses I cringe a bit. A lot of the time ads as a revenue stream are a total cop out that demonstrate a total lack of business sense a…

I just thought we learned years ago that the ago model really wasn't a good one.

Re: Hedge Funder Who Bet $100 Million On Facebook IPO Is Furious

#114
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Facebook has the biggest and most metadata rich direct marketing list ever created? Facebook has not even begun to do the things they could with the knowledge they collect every day. In theory you should be able to go to one of Facebook's ad sales pages and order an ad that will be shown exactly three times to every left-handed piano player in Ohio. That you can't do that in the next ten minutes means that Facebook i…

I think you overstate the amount of useful data Facebook has on people. Just to take your example: Facebook may very well know which state I live in, but they definitely don't know whether I'm left handed, for example. On the other hand, Google might very well know this, if, say, I have searched for left handed golf clubs. Amazon would also know this, if I have bought said clubs through them. Google and Amazon almost…

As an addendum to your points, I do not have a Facebook account, and since deleting mine I've not even wanted one. Google, Amazon, Dropbox, and a few other services are compelling enough that unless they make serious errors, I will continue using their product. Facebook just had to change their privacy policy before I was finally annoyed enough to give them the boot.

Re: Hedge Funder Who Bet $100 Million On Facebook IPO Is Furious

#115
post #52

I bought Facebook with a limit order when it went on sale to the general public last Friday, and I can confirm it was a terrible experience. Here's basically what happened: I put in a limit order through tdameritrade the night before with a max price of $44. I'm in front of the computer that morning to watch my order when the IPO starts. The price spikes up to 45, then treads around low 40s. I refresh my account. My…

There may even be permanent damage done to Facebook's reputation. Any permanent damage done to Facebook's reputation will purely be because they overvalued the IPO, overstated earnings, bought out other internet companies at inflated valuations pre-IPO, and burned those who bought at the inflated initial valuation. As to whether the trading system damaged confidence in Facebook - it's not always possible to get the d…

I was just stating what happened. Sure, I don't have a problem stating why I bought it at on IPO day at 100 p/e. I bought a small stake in my retirement fund because I believe Facebook will achieve beyond 10x their current earnings in the long run and I don't think anyone can predict the best time to buy this stock with the hype around it. I plan on checking the stock price once a year not once an hour.

Re: Hedge Funder Who Bet $100 Million On Facebook IPO Is Furious

#116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Black hole sounds about right. Apparently NASDAQ's systems went completely quiet for 17 seconds centered around the 11:30am open of Facebook: http://www.nanex.net/aqck/3122.html

Looks crooked as anything.

Do you think NASDAQ shut their computers down? Were automated traders crippling the system? Perhaps something else?

Re: Hedge Funder Who Bet $100 Million On Facebook IPO Is Furious

#117
post #111
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope.Vegas law says casinos are not liable for technical errors. There have been cases of slot machines setting off the giant "You Win Millions" buzzer but not getting it.

I'm curious; what's to prevent a casino from saying that prizes were actually technical errors whenever it was convenient to them?

If the casino believes that the machine has been corrupted or is broken, they call in the state's gaming commission which is supposed to act as an independent technical 3rd party. The machine is inspected and it's code compared to a known registered checksum.

Casinos can say "technical error!", but there is an advocate for the player in this situation. Usually. (Avoid Indian casinos in the USA for this reason).

Re: Hedge Funder Who Bet $100 Million On Facebook IPO Is Furious

#118
post #78
post #44

I love this story on so many levels. Firstly there is the irony of a "blue collar hedge fund manager" There's the fact the lack of an IPO bump means Facebook equity holders are the people who made money out of it, instead of the investment banks buying at the opening and hoping to sell at the bump price. Then there's the whole "HN thinks Facebook is worthless and has the satisfaction of seeing the stock drop on the o…

This particular man presumably understands class as the English do - that in many cases, it's as much (or more) to do with your upbringing and background as it is to do with your current social status. Perhaps "blue collar" isn't quite the term for this, though. I can't imagine there are many blue collar workers in a hedge fund. Maybe the cleaners...

I'd interpret this as someone with high income/low net worth.

Think someone from a random middle class background that got good grades an above average public college. Basically, if he fucks up, he's bankrupt.

The WASPy types with Harvard MBA's benefit from their social safety net.

Re: Hedge Funder Who Bet $100 Million On Facebook IPO Is Furious

#119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There may even be permanent damage done to Facebook's reputation. Any permanent damage done to Facebook's reputation will purely be because they overvalued the IPO, overstated earnings, bought out other internet companies at inflated valuations pre-IPO, and burned those who bought at the inflated initial valuation. As to whether the trading system damaged confidence in Facebook - it's not always possible to get the d…

anyone placing a limit order should know that they might get a vastly different price than the one they expected If you place a limit order at (e.g.) $100, your order should be filled at or below $100 - no exceptions. The order will stay around until it is either filled, manually cancelled, or expires (at end of day or at a prescribed time). A market order can be filled at an arbitrary price because you are communica…

Sorry this wasn't very clear. I meant that you might not get what you expected (though it will conform to the rule you set, if it completes). Stocks can be very volatile and a limit order only controls movement one way, so it doesn't protect you from (say) a huge drop in stock price just after your order.

Re: Hedge Funder Who Bet $100 Million On Facebook IPO Is Furious

#120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

anyone placing a limit order should know that they might get a vastly different price than the one they expected If you place a limit order at (e.g.) $100, your order should be filled at or below $100 - no exceptions. The order will stay around until it is either filled, manually cancelled, or expires (at end of day or at a prescribed time). A market order can be filled at an arbitrary price because you are communica…

Sorry this wasn't very clear. I meant that you might not get what you expected (though it will conform to the rule you set, if it completes). Stocks can be very volatile and a limit order only controls movement one way, so it doesn't protect you from (say) a huge drop in stock price just after your order.

What does what happens after your order is filled have to do with your limit order execution price?

If you want protection from price decreases after a buy, also put in a stop order (which will turn into a market order) or a stop limit order (which ensures execution at the specified limit price) but which may not execute if the price movement is highly volatile.

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