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Hedge Funder Who Bet $100 Million On Facebook IPO Is Furious

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Re: Hedge Funder Who Bet $100 Million On Facebook IPO Is Furious

#91
post #44

I love this story on so many levels. Firstly there is the irony of a "blue collar hedge fund manager" There's the fact the lack of an IPO bump means Facebook equity holders are the people who made money out of it, instead of the investment banks buying at the opening and hoping to sell at the bump price. Then there's the whole "HN thinks Facebook is worthless and has the satisfaction of seeing the stock drop on the o…

As someone who's worked in and with a lot of Hedge Funds, he's not a Hedge Fund Manager: he's a trader. What that means in general is that while he's going to be very well paid w.r.t. the rest of society, he's not the guy actually doing the full hedge fund portfolio management, he's a guy executing trades on behalf of that portfolio manager. The PM is the guy who makes the massive, massive payout, not the trader oper…

Yes, I do understand that, and I guess I misspoke when I said "manager" rather than "trader". It doesn't detract from the irony though.

(Fan of your blog, and following OpenGamma's progress, BTW)

Re: Hedge Funder Who Bet $100 Million On Facebook IPO Is Furious

#92
post #44

I love this story on so many levels. Firstly there is the irony of a "blue collar hedge fund manager" There's the fact the lack of an IPO bump means Facebook equity holders are the people who made money out of it, instead of the investment banks buying at the opening and hoping to sell at the bump price. Then there's the whole "HN thinks Facebook is worthless and has the satisfaction of seeing the stock drop on the o…

You should adapt this for the stage!

A sequel to the Social Network?

Re: Hedge Funder Who Bet $100 Million On Facebook IPO Is Furious

#93
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You go to Vegas and put $5,000 on the roulette wheel and it breaks, it's like, hold on, I'm not going to do that. I like this analogy. You want to play the market, fine. But if NASDAQ breaks, is that really part of the game?

In fact, if an actual casino fucked up due to technical glitches, I think legally it's on them to fix it.

Nope.Vegas law says casinos are not liable for technical errors. There have been cases of slot machines setting off the giant "You Win Millions" buzzer but not getting it.

Re: Hedge Funder Who Bet $100 Million On Facebook IPO Is Furious

#94
post #52

I bought Facebook with a limit order when it went on sale to the general public last Friday, and I can confirm it was a terrible experience. Here's basically what happened: I put in a limit order through tdameritrade the night before with a max price of $44. I'm in front of the computer that morning to watch my order when the IPO starts. The price spikes up to 45, then treads around low 40s. I refresh my account. My…

There may even be permanent damage done to Facebook's reputation.

Any permanent damage done to Facebook's reputation will purely be because they overvalued the IPO, overstated earnings, bought out other internet companies at inflated valuations pre-IPO, and burned those who bought at the inflated initial valuation.

As to whether the trading system damaged confidence in Facebook - it's not always possible to get the deal you want on a stock-market, and anyone placing a limit order should know that they might get a vastly different price than the one they expected - there are disclaimers in trading systems specifically for this situation. Trading is stopped all the time by circuit breakers (see Zynga that same day for example), depends on both willing buyers and sellers at a given price, and of course depends on the trading systems not going down for whatever reason. If you're buying as a long term investment of a stock that you believe in this won't affect you. If you're speculating, particularly short-term, you should recognise that the casino is rigged against small investors - the stock market is not, and never will be, rational, fair, or efficient; it's just the least worst option we have. However I don't believe that lack of access to the stock or prices on the first day of trading has anything to do with the current price ($31 last time I looked) - that's just down to a bubble deflating and confidence evaporating as people start asking questions about the true valuation.

Frankly I think this sort of talk of the technical issues is really a way of avoiding talking about why people bought Facebook at the initial irrational PE/price which (IMHO) has farther to fall before it becomes a reasonable valuation based on their projected earnings. That's the real issue here, but one which raises hard questions about the very high valuation of many social media companies like Instagram, Facebook etc.

Re: Hedge Funder Who Bet $100 Million On Facebook IPO Is Furious

#95
post #78
post #44

I love this story on so many levels. Firstly there is the irony of a "blue collar hedge fund manager" There's the fact the lack of an IPO bump means Facebook equity holders are the people who made money out of it, instead of the investment banks buying at the opening and hoping to sell at the bump price. Then there's the whole "HN thinks Facebook is worthless and has the satisfaction of seeing the stock drop on the o…

This particular man presumably understands class as the English do - that in many cases, it's as much (or more) to do with your upbringing and background as it is to do with your current social status. Perhaps "blue collar" isn't quite the term for this, though. I can't imagine there are many blue collar workers in a hedge fund. Maybe the cleaners...

I guess he's trying to say that he feels like he shouldn't be there, a pretender to the throne. Happens a lot when you are working class and join a department/division that attracts people from more affluent families.

Re: Hedge Funder Who Bet $100 Million On Facebook IPO Is Furious

#96
If I would have the money I would buy it for $25 a share. Personally I don't believe it will go under this. Facebook is a good business, just not by the price people were told. I don't believe FB will grow much more. A P/E=100 ($31) is still too high. $25 corresponds to P/E=80, high enough in my opinion. I believe that one Buffet wouldn't pay more than P/E=25, around 8 bucks.. Google right now as a P/E=18, Microsoft less than 11..

Re: Hedge Funder Who Bet $100 Million On Facebook IPO Is Furious

#97
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There very well may have been buyers on Friday who thought the stock was worth $70. If the market had been able to handle the volume, then we may very well be seeing FB at $70 today. However, since we know that the market couldn't handle the volume, it most certainly did affect the share price on Friday. Now, you let people sit and think about this over the weekend and they may have different feelings about that supp…

Well, honestly we'll never know for sure, but if a weekend of "thinking it over" cuts the price in half, did it really deserve the $70 valuation? After the hype, people are going to think it over at some point, right? Maybe it's better that it happened right off the bat.

During the dot-com bubble there were IPOs where the P/E was far beyond 100. So it isn't totally crazy to think the market could whip people into a frenzy over the idea that 'they are getting in on the ground floor of the next google' What is crazy is to think that NASDAQ hasn't fixed it by now. If there were a lot of people out there who wanted to get in on the next big thing they would have put in market orders and those orders would have been filled by now.

Re: Hedge Funder Who Bet $100 Million On Facebook IPO Is Furious

#98
post #82
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're missing a point there. The information may be mostly white noise, but with that much data, even filtered by laws and ethics, statistics are powerful . You are not the customer; neither are the developers. It's Target. http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2012/02/16/how-targe...

I have no problem visualizing how Target is able to predict future purchases based on what items I've already bought or what items I'm browsing. I have trouble visualizing how anyone can predict future purchases based on me liking a picture of a cat or browsing through friends vacation photos. Unless they're planning on selling me cat vacations...

Even your age, sex and country is very useful to advertisers - an ad targeted at those is worth about 50x the price of one sent to a random internet user (or it was when I last worked in that industry). Facebook knows where you went to college, what your favourite movies are, and perhaps most importantly of all, who your friends are. That's huge.

Re: Hedge Funder Who Bet $100 Million On Facebook IPO Is Furious

#99
post #52

I bought Facebook with a limit order when it went on sale to the general public last Friday, and I can confirm it was a terrible experience. Here's basically what happened: I put in a limit order through tdameritrade the night before with a max price of $44. I'm in front of the computer that morning to watch my order when the IPO starts. The price spikes up to 45, then treads around low 40s. I refresh my account. My…

There may even be permanent damage done to Facebook's reputation. Any permanent damage done to Facebook's reputation will purely be because they overvalued the IPO, overstated earnings, bought out other internet companies at inflated valuations pre-IPO, and burned those who bought at the inflated initial valuation. As to whether the trading system damaged confidence in Facebook - it's not always possible to get the d…

I don't generally disagree with what you said, and I'm largely just taking an opportunity to go on a rant.

I have to ask -- is the stock market system really "the least worst option we have"? From an interpretation of "have" being "that is implemented and running", sure, but that's just tautological. It seems easy to conjure up systems where speculation isn't rewarded like this[1]. It just tends to mean no more instant-million or billionaires made out of people who run profitable businesses.

Recall that investment was initially about sharing profit in exchange for the funds to grow a business. Part-ownership. But we made those ownable pieces sellable, and people became able to make more money by selling little pieces of companies than by holding onto them and realizing profit; the system has evolved to grease those wheels.

If we were collectively prepared to be a little less greedy and insane, the majority of this risk would go away. We don't have to trade speculatively on future expectations of the value of the ability to sell the right to take part in a company's profits. The world could exist without stock markets, and it just means that a lot of smart people might be working on real problems instead of shuffling money. That world would look very similar to ours, except that absurd fortunes may not be come by so easily.

[1] Quick ideas: Stock ownership is non-transferable, or Stock-ownership is limited-term, or Stock ownership is limited yield, or Stock ownership is transferable after a fixed period. These could favour the rich and those with knowledge of the system, so perhaps provisions about sales would be required, "X% made available for individual buyers of less than Y value" or something. Pretty much any system which removes the notion of a real time market based entirely around selling a company's stock seems to fix the problem. It appears to me that there are a myriad less worse systems, judged by the metric of how many people are injured by the system, and how badly.

Re: Hedge Funder Who Bet $100 Million On Facebook IPO Is Furious

#100
post #52

I bought Facebook with a limit order when it went on sale to the general public last Friday, and I can confirm it was a terrible experience. Here's basically what happened: I put in a limit order through tdameritrade the night before with a max price of $44. I'm in front of the computer that morning to watch my order when the IPO starts. The price spikes up to 45, then treads around low 40s. I refresh my account. My…

There may even be permanent damage done to Facebook's reputation. Any permanent damage done to Facebook's reputation will purely be because they overvalued the IPO, overstated earnings, bought out other internet companies at inflated valuations pre-IPO, and burned those who bought at the inflated initial valuation. As to whether the trading system damaged confidence in Facebook - it's not always possible to get the d…

anyone placing a limit order should know that they might get a vastly different price than the one they expected

If you place a limit order at (e.g.) $100, your order should be filled at or below $100 - no exceptions. The order will stay around until it is either filled, manually cancelled, or expires (at end of day or at a prescribed time).

A market order can be filled at an arbitrary price because you are communicating that you are willing to cross the bid-ask spread and meet the market price, even if it's moving rapidly.

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