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Thoughts on the Future of Software Development

sheshbabu.com

111–120 of 434 posts

Re: Thoughts on the Future of Software Development

#111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also if there are fewer humans involved in the code production there is a lot of room for producing code that "works", but is not cohesive or maintainable. Invariably there will be a point at which something is broken and someone will need to wade through the mess to find why it's broken and try to fix it.

Nah, you just throw it out and have the AI generate an all new one with different problems!

I really look forward to all programs now having new strange bugs every release. They already do, but I expect AI to do that more at first.

Re: Thoughts on the Future of Software Development

#112

It's a good overview, but I think there's one important aspect that's not discussed. We're looking at AI competing with the jobs that programmers do today, but it's likely that these new AI tools will change software itself. I mean, why have a complicated UI with design/validation/etc when you can just tell your phone you want a plane ticket to Paris tomorrow ? I'm just going to guesstimate that at least half of the…

This is similar to my thoughts, “code” is for humans. AI does need a game engine or massive software, some future video game just needs to output the next frame and respond to input. Little to no code required.

Re: Thoughts on the Future of Software Development

#113
post #26

As long as there is no AGI, no software engineer needs to be worried about their job. And when there is, obviously everything in every field will change and this discussion will soon be futile.

I would argue future engineers should be worried a bit. We no longer need to hire new developers. I was not trained professionally yet I'm writing production code that's passing code reviews in languages I never used. I will create a prompt, validate it compiles, passes tests, have it explain so I understand it was written as expected and write documentation about the code, write the PR, and I am seen as a competent…

I wonder if the reviewers are just using GPT as well.

Re: Thoughts on the Future of Software Development

#114
post #83

> In summary, I believe there would still be a market for Software Developers in the foreseeable future, though the nature of work will change This is precisely what I dread. When it comes to software development specifically, the parts that the AI cheerleaders are excited about AI doing are exactly the parts of the job that I find appealing. If I wanted to be a glorified systems integrator, I would have been doing t…

Also if there are fewer humans involved in the code production there is a lot of room for producing code that "works", but is not cohesive or maintainable. Invariably there will be a point at which something is broken and someone will need to wade through the mess to find why it's broken and try to fix it.

This is the future imagined by A Fire Upon the Deep and its sequel. While less focused on the code being generated by ai, it features seemingly endless amounts of code and programs that can do almost anything but the difficulty is finding the program that works for you and is safe to use.

To some extent... This is already the world we live in. A lot of code is unreadable without a lot of effort or expertise. If all code was open sourced there would almost certainly be code written to do just about anything you'd like it to. The difficulty would be finding that code and customizing it for your use.

Re: Thoughts on the Future of Software Development

#115
post #83

> In summary, I believe there would still be a market for Software Developers in the foreseeable future, though the nature of work will change This is precisely what I dread. When it comes to software development specifically, the parts that the AI cheerleaders are excited about AI doing are exactly the parts of the job that I find appealing. If I wanted to be a glorified systems integrator, I would have been doing t…

I understand your feelings but I do also wonder if its not similar to complaining about compilers or garbage collection. I'm sure there are people that love fiddling with assembly and memory management by hand. I assume there will be plenty of interesting/novel problems no matter the tooling because, fundamentally, software is about solving such problems.

Re: Thoughts on the Future of Software Development

#116
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1) Those tasks that it is still currently only possible for a human to do. 2) Those tasks which are easier and cheaper for a human to do. I agree, but "1" must include all tasks where a mistake could lead to liabilities for the company, which is probably most tasks. LLMs can't be held responsible for their fuckups, they can't be punished, they have no body. It's like the genie from the bottle, it will grant your th…

"A COMPUTER CAN NEVER BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE THEREFORE A COMPUTER MUST NEVER MAKE A MANAGEMENT DECISION" — IBM slide from 1979.

Some might consider that a plus in the same way that "you can't get fired for choosing IBM" -- it's a way to outsource blame.

Re: Thoughts on the Future of Software Development

#117
post #102
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To add to this. I was going through devin's 'pass' diffs from SWE bench. Every one I ended up tracing to actual issues caused changes that would reduce maintainablity or introduced potential side effects. I think it may be useful as a suggestion in a red-green-refactor model, but will end up producing hard to maintain and modify code. Note this one here that introduced circular dependencies, changed a function that o…

Thank you for reading the diffs and reporting on them. And to be fair, lots of humans are already at least this bad at writing code. And lots of companies are happy with garbage code so long as it addresses an immediate business requirement. So Devin wouldn't have to advance much to be competitive in certain simple situations where people don't care about anything that happens more than 2 quarters into the future. I…

Architectural erosion is an ongoing problem for humans, but they don't produce tightly coupled low cohesion code by default at the SWE level the majority of the time.

With this quality of changes it won't be long until violations stack up to where further changes will be beyond any algorithms ability to unravel.

While lots of companies do only look out in the short term, human programers are incentivized to protect themselves from pain if they aren't forced into unrealistic delivery times.

At&t wireless being destroyed as a company due to a failed SAP migration that was largely due to fragile code is a good example.

But I guess if the developer jobs that will go away are from companies that want to underperform in the market due to errors and a code base that can't adapt to changing market realities, that may happen.

But I would fire any non intern programmer if they constantly did things like removing deprecation comments and introduced circular dependencies with the majority of their commits.

https://github.com/CognitionAI/devin-swebench-results/blob/m...

PAC learning is powerful but is still probably approximately correct.

Until these tools can avoid the most basic bad practices I don't see any company sticking to them in the long term, but it will probably be a very expensive experiment for many of them.

Re: Thoughts on the Future of Software Development

#118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humans also need human data. You might be better than I, but at least for myself, I know that I am just a weighted pattern matcher with a some stochasticity mixed in. I don't think the idea of painstakingly writing out a book, and then having a printing press propagate your book so that all can easily reproduce the idea in their own mind, is so very different. I think this is why the real conversation here is about t…

> Just that it really isn't so different than the printing press. The part that makes the goals of the AI crowd an entirely different beast from things like the printing press is that the printing press doesn't think for anyone. It just lets people reproduce their own thoughts more widely.

The printing press lets people reproduce other people's thoughts more widely. As to reproducing your own thoughts more widely, this is why I was describing a cultural "canon" as being the foundation upon which new ideas can be built. In the AI world, the "new" idea is effectively just the prompt (and iterative direction); everything else is a remix of the canon. But pre-AI, in order for anyone to understand your new idea, you had to mix it into the existing canon as well.

Edit: to be abundantly clear, I'm not exactly hoping AI can do very well. It seems like it's going to excel at automating the parts of software development that I legitimately enjoy. I think that's also true for other creator-class jobs that it threatens.

Re: Thoughts on the Future of Software Development

#119
post #83

> In summary, I believe there would still be a market for Software Developers in the foreseeable future, though the nature of work will change This is precisely what I dread. When it comes to software development specifically, the parts that the AI cheerleaders are excited about AI doing are exactly the parts of the job that I find appealing. If I wanted to be a glorified systems integrator, I would have been doing t…

This resonates strongly with me. I don't want to describe the painting, I want to paint it. If this is indeed where we end up, I don't know that I'll change professions (I'm 30+ years into it), but the joy will be gone. It will truly become "just a job".

I remember back in the 80s I had friends who enjoyed coding in assembly and felt that using higher-level languages was "cheating" - isn't this just a continuation of that?

Re: Thoughts on the Future of Software Development

#120
post #83

> In summary, I believe there would still be a market for Software Developers in the foreseeable future, though the nature of work will change This is precisely what I dread. When it comes to software development specifically, the parts that the AI cheerleaders are excited about AI doing are exactly the parts of the job that I find appealing. If I wanted to be a glorified systems integrator, I would have been doing t…

Being a developer, I heartily agree with you.

Being a human, I realise that I as a developer have put a lot of people out of a job. Those folks have had to adapt to that change.

I guess now it's our time to adapt to change. At least it keeps me on my feet!

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