If you predict what they will predict and do the opposite is that perfect free will or the opposite?
Can you use your "free will"? Try your hand
111–120 of 279 posts
Re: Can you use your "free will"? Try your hand
#112I think the framing of this experiment is bad.
It is actually about challenging the user to come up with a random sequence, which is pretty difficult without a coin to flip, an irrational number to copy, etc.
When I just "randomly" mash the keys, the prediction rate is around 70%. I have to intentionally focus to avoid patterns as much as I can and then I'm able to pull it down to 54%.
Dan Ariely[1] did a similar spiel when teaching according to his book. He asked half of class to flip a coin and write down the sequence. The other half was supposed to write down a random sequence without the coin flips. Then he collected the papers, read them out and he claims he was able to tell almost every student whether they did the real coin flips or just simulated ones.
[1] - yes, his papers were retracted because he manipulated data
Re: Can you use your "free will"? Try your hand
#113Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think it is true. If something could predict all your actions with 100% certainty then you have no free will - you have no ability to decide for a different outcome than the one that is predetermined. Although if it wasn't like that and you could do truly random decisions, I'm not sure what that says about your free will either. If I had to guess, I don't think I have a free will. In my opinion my actions are a det…
Unless you decide to act irrationally at some point, and at others you act rationally, and switch back and forth using a coin flip.
The prediction machine in the though experiment would make the prediction after it knows the result of the coin flip and before the action is done by the subject.
Re: Can you use your "free will"? Try your hand
#114I fail to see how it's related to free will. I can look at the digits of PI and press d and f depending it's odd or even. So what does it prove? Nothing. Being able to beat this algorithm doesn't mean that I have free will, and choose to fall into patterns (knowing the PI solution exists) doesn't mean I don't.
If your behaviour can be predicted then you don't have free will. Obviously you can argue whether this really predicts human behaviour or even the above implication itself (for example I think compatibilism kinda disagrees with it) but I'd say it is related.
There's admittedly a relationship, but it's very subtle and nuanced.
For example, you can predict that I'm going to pay my rent with > 90% accuracy, but that has nothing to do with whether I'm paying out of my free will or not.
A Marxist will argue that it's the oppression of the bourgeoisie that makes me pay, and a free market capitalist would counter that I made the choice "freely". But the truth is somewhere in between, and probably depends "subjectively" on how the person "feels" about doing it.
Of course if the prediction for all actions (not merely within an experimental setting) is close to 100% then there's probably something weird about it, but I don't think that's remotely possible. Not with current tech, and unlikely with future tech either.
Re: Can you use your "free will"? Try your hand
#115The prediction algorithm is actually very straightforward[1]. It's a fun exercise to write a sequence generator specifically to defeat it. Here is a sequence that can get the prediction rate down to 13%: ddddd dfddd dffdd dfdfd ddfff ddfdd fdffd dffdf ddfff fdfdf dfffd ffdff fffff dffff ffddf fffdf dfffd ffdff ffffd ddfff Generated using this Perl script: my %table = (); my $s = "fffff"; for(my $i = 0; $i $table{$s}{…
> The prediction algorithm is actually very straightforward[1]. It's a fun exercise to write a sequence generator specifically to defeat it. if you are inspecting the prediction algorithm, and you want to specifically defeat it, doesn't that mean copy the prediction algorithm and throw a "not" on it? It's the old halting problem trick...
It is an exercise of free will to overcome the imposed barriers of some test.
Re: Can you use your "free will"? Try your hand
#116Earlier quoted context omitted.
Free will is equivalent to randomness with many (asymptotically infinite) degrees of freedom. Not sure if the experiment tests this. (Pressing a different key or closing the browser tab are also variables in this probability distribution.)
> Free will is equivalent to randomness with many (asymptotically infinite) degrees of freedom. I don't think this is obviously true. I can make a random number generating device with as many degrees of freedom as you like by producing a bunch of vertically polarised photons and measuring their horizontal polarisation. I don't think anyone would describe this system as having "free will". Conversely humans with "free…
I think that's true, I think free will is more reason (of the general kind that's not only logical but takes into account your mind), than more randomness. Rather, the more your actions are aligned with your own good, brought by understanding yourself and reality, the more free I think you are. (to give an example: is an addicted person free, even if he is in principle doing "what he wants?", or is he trapped by his own desires?) In this sense some people would say I'm a 'compatibilist', because I think there's no great tension between determinism and free will.
Re: Can you use your "free will"? Try your hand
#11767%. Am I a prime candidate to be replaced by AI?
Re: Can you use your "free will"? Try your hand
#118What makes free will free? Dd we mean free from the laws of thermodynamics? I don't understand how free will can be regarded as anything other than a religious belief or superstition.
Re: Can you use your "free will"? Try your hand
#119Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is it true? From my point of view, that someone can predict what I will do from past behavior does not imply I don't have a free will. Only way that would prove I don't have a free will is someone who would predict my behavior without knowing anything about my past, like a fortune teller that would tell my friend (because if fortune teller tells it to me it might be self fulfilling prophecy :D) something I would do;…
I think it is true. If something could predict all your actions with 100% certainty then you have no free will - you have no ability to decide for a different outcome than the one that is predetermined. Although if it wasn't like that and you could do truly random decisions, I'm not sure what that says about your free will either. If I had to guess, I don't think I have a free will. In my opinion my actions are a det…
> In my opinion my actions are a deterministic function of the state of my mind (including memory, personality) + input. I have no choice in the matter, only an illusion of one
It's important to note that as far as materialist physics goes, "you" are literally "your state of mind (including memory, personality) and input". The fact that this system (i.e. "you") produces an apparently deterministic result doesn't mean that "you" didn't do it.
The common confusion comes from the fact that systems cannot in general predict their own outputs without going through the required computational process. I think it's related to the concept of "computational irreducibility". So "you" as a system needs to go through the set of motions to figure out what you eventually decide to do. Before the deliberation you can't predict the result, and thus it "feels as if" "free will" is a messy indeterministic process. But that's not a given.
Weird things happen when some other system can predict "you". The problem there is that if "you" can be simulated, you don't know which "you" is "real". But the mere fact that your state of mind and inputs will deterministically produce decisions doesn't mean "you" don't have a choice. In fact it is opposite -- "you" do have a choice, and _only_ the system "you" makes the choice (and thus it is determined solely by "you", hence, deterministic!)
Re: Can you use your "free will"? Try your hand
#120After reading how it works, I can get to around 50% by doing the following: pick a pattern of f's and d's of length between 1-5. Type that pattern. Pause for a second or two. Then change the pattern. Patterns can be, for example: only d's four times; alternate between f and d three times; single f; one f for every two d's two times.
In fact, now that I "get it", I don't even need to consciously pick a specific pattern, I just smash the buttons and "somehow" change the way I smash them every five or so smashes. I get around 50% prediction rate pretty consistently with this.