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Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

electrek.co

111–120 of 217 posts

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#111
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it’s more troubling to view owning a car as a base right that everyone should have. It’s better as a luxury. We want fewer cars and for people to live in walkable areas where cars are not needed.

100% agree. But…. how do we get there? A LOT of people in the US living in very (gross) spread-out areas where there is horrible pedestrian infrastructure. The infrastructure that does exist seems like it was put in place to mock those without cars (sidewalks on extremely loud stroads). I currently live in such a place. The end-point I want is for people to live in dense walkable areas by default. But people don’t li…

I think there are two key moves: one is removing the subsidies for private car usage so the true costs are more visible and people can make better choices (c.f. The High Cost of Free Parking), and another would be removing low-density requirements – most expensive cities could increase density rapidly if, say, every homeowner had the ability by-right to add an ADU or convert a single house into a multi-family without decades of recreational lawsuits from the neighborhood NIMBYs. Anywhere built before 1950 probably has a bunch of neighborhoods with little business zones which are marginally profitable because there isn’t quite enough local business but would do well if the density went up by 20-30%, and the profits would probably encourage a virtuous cycle of other neighbors upgrading.

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#112
post #78
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has EVs that aren't luxury and I'm pretty sure Europe does as well if I am reading your comment correct you are trying to insinuate that EVs are luxury. If not your comment needs some clarity.

What is the least expensive EV one could buy in the middle of nowhere North America? I'm open to anyones knowledge in this area I dont have but our primary mode of transportation when we were struggling was a $2,000 USD 30 year old Toyota. If you don't think EVs are a luxury than we both need some clarity.

On cars.com right now it looks like the electric price floor is roughly $5k, which gets you a 10 year old Nissan Leaf, though it looks like they mostly have lower mileage than comparable-age ICE cars.

Used car prices have ballooned in recent years, so I’m not sure how much lower you can go without buying a complete heap. As a comparison I looked at the cheapest Nissan Sentras and Versas on the market, which are about $4k, a bit older, and have 200k miles.

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are looking at it from an American viewpoint. If you are in US, Canada, Australia, Brazil, Argentina, you might reasonably need to cover huge distances in a day. However there are a _lot_ of people in countries across Europe, Indian sub-continent, SE Asia for whom the current EV range is actually enough.

The US’s cars also emit a huge percentage of the world’s greenhouse gases so solving that problem is kinda important.

My point is for a lot of people around the world the technology has reached their non-anxiety range. Which doesn't mean we should stop battery and motor innovation.

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#114
post #46
post #10

A couple of comments on the article point out that if gas stations start closing due to reduced demand, it will accelerate the effect by making it more cumbersome to own a gas car. Recently, some of the industrial area near my apartment in NYC was rezoned for housing, and nearly all of the local gas stations were torn down (not because of low demand but because a 15 story building would be more profitable). The resul…

Perhaps not applicable to NYC, but isnt it kind of troubling that people who cant afford a luxury vehicle (55-100k) could be put in a position where they have to spend more money (gas) to go fill up out of their way, taxed for being poor, or shut up and take public transit (if it even exists where they live)? Surely no one driving an EV ever got to their position to buy one driving an ICE. Edit: happy this comment in…

Basically all EV sales are new EVs and the used EV market is still very hot.

There will be a lot more “cheap” EVs in 5-10 years as the first EVs depreciate and sell for $3,000 type thing.

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are looking at it from an American viewpoint. If you are in US, Canada, Australia, Brazil, Argentina, you might reasonably need to cover huge distances in a day. However there are a _lot_ of people in countries across Europe, Indian sub-continent, SE Asia for whom the current EV range is actually enough.

The US’s cars also emit a huge percentage of the world’s greenhouse gases so solving that problem is kinda important.

US is 14% of global co2 emissions, vehicles are 29% of US emmissions, so US vehicles are 4% of global. I don’t know if I would call 4% a huge percentage but it is certainly significant.

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#117

I wonder if electric cars were to approach the maximum range that most people would ever want to drive in a day, about double the stated range of the current longer-ranged cars, if that might trigger a rather profound and sudden tipping point. Who cares how quickly they charge if you’re stopping to sleep for the night anyway?

It would be nice if EV batteries were standardised and modularised enough that one could just swap out the battery for a charged one at a gas/charging station in a couple minutes.

I saw that in Taipei for electric mopeds. Spread through the city, there’s racks of batteries ready to go: just grab one, put your empty one in the slot where it’ll charge for the next person and be on your way.

Probably more complex for cars (the weight alone might make usability a challenge), but a cool concept

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#118
post #75
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"""The reason that the rich were so rich, Vimes reasoned, was because they managed to spend less money. Take boots, for example. ... A man who could afford fifty dollars had a pair of boots that'd still be keeping his feet dry in ten years' time, while a poor man who could only afford cheap boots would have spent a hundred dollars on boots in the same time and would still have wet feet.""" - https://en.wikipedia.org/…

This effect is true but the thesis is dumb. The rich are rich because of the compounding effects of wealth. Not that small fraction spent on durable goods.

> The rich are rich because of the compounding effects of wealth. Not that small fraction spent on durable goods.

The less you (have to) spend on goods and services the more you can keep invested to compound.

If 100% (or more) of your income is taken up by paying for necessities (shelter, food, transportation), what do you have to compound?

* https://ofdollarsanddata.com/the-biggest-lie-in-personal-fin...

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not so much the automotive culture, but backbreaking taxes on ICE vehicles, and basically no alternatives if you live in rural areas and have to drive long distances. Maybe someone from norway can calculate/check how much a mid-range petrol/diesel car (eg. VW golf, renault megane,...) costs there after all the taxes, and compare to an electric one, but it's a LOT more than in eg. germany.

A VW Golf starts at 35800€, and a VW ID.3 starts at 32800€, taxes included. Overall, electric cars are a bit cheaper than their counterparts, but not a lot. However, today, petrol is 2.15€/l and electricity is 0.013€/kWh. That's 11.20€/100km versus 0.185€/100km for the ID.3, literally two orders of magnitude cheaper. Everyone charges at home, and there's also a 40% discount in toll roads, which saves me about 8€ per…

What if you were going on a 2000km road trip?

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#120
The headline doesn't follow from the actual data (par for the course with electrek I guess).

Here is a graph from the source used in TFA. Now look at the sum of gasoline, diesel and biofuels, and tell me that's "cratering".

https://robbieandrew.github.io/EV/img/NORenergy_road.png

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