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UK households set for largest fall in living standards in six decades

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Re: UK households set for largest fall in living standards in six decades

#111

Post by rsj_hn »

phlipski wrote: post #68
rsj_hn wrote: post #26

This is 100% caused by the anti-Russian sanctions policy, yet not a single comment on this thread so far has even mentioned the sanctions and tried to engage in a reasoned debate about whether the economic costs paid by Europe (and especially the energy insecure nations within the EU) were worth whatever moral good boy points the sanctions buy us. Some have suggested the sanctions help Ukraine, but haven't articulate…

Do you have any sources showing how the Russian economy is growing?

Well what happened was that sanctions created a sharp, fast, contraction -- maybe 5% or so. Russia measures GDP year over year, so there are still declines. But the standard way of measuring GDP is continuously -- e.g. quarter over quarter, annualized. So according to more realtime data, the contraction lasted a couple of months and they are now in expansion, but it will probably be around 2Q 2023 before the year over year data turns positive.

A reference is here, using Goldman-Sachs faster frequency data.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/10/11/a...

Re: UK households set for largest fall in living standards in six decades

#112

Post by guilhas »

buserror wrote: post #32

brexit. Everyone in the media try to ignore the elephant in the room. But, brexit. I know several companies who are winding down, because they can't export. Just too much trouble and money. It is everywhere, and nobody talks about it. brexit.

Sure, I and many others were just paid for almost a year not to work. And now electric bills are double due to the war. But of course it will all be Brexit for many years to come

Re: UK households set for largest fall in living standards in six decades

#113

Post by nwellnhof »

tannhaeuser wrote: post #43
kypro wrote: post #30

I'll get downvoted for this, but this isn't true if you're one of the two protected classes in the UK: pensioners or welfare recipients. Both will see their income rise with inflation. If you're working then, sure, you're getting screwed as always because after just spending billions locking down the economy to saving boomers from Covid, this year we decided to spend billions bailing out boomers pensions, paying for…

German government just started UBI basically; in other words, they're buying their votes. Not getting your boomer hate, though.

No, they only made minor adjustments to unemployment benefits.

Re: UK households set for largest fall in living standards in six decades

#114

Post by phist_mcgee »

JauntTrooper wrote: post #99
piva00 wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’m hoping the UK joins the United States. We’ve already started to merge our military industrial base and have a long, shared history. Maybe they would receive preference for US LNG/coal shipments too as a result. This is unrealistic bordering absurd, you just came out of Brexit sold under the pretense of increased freedom and sovereignty. The UK didn't even like the special deal it had with the EU, unique concess…

I assumed he meant like a free trade union, not political integration.

Maybe not the parent commenter's take, but I have seen a few Americans around the place casually suggesting countries join the Union. I think some may be under the misapprehension that not everyone looks to America as the "greatest country" and would wish to not just be like them, but be them.

Re: UK households set for largest fall in living standards in six decades

#115

Post by stu432 »

unnouinceput wrote: post #44

Quote: "... and higher unemployment are battering household finances..." But but wasn't Brexit suppose to fix unemployment? Wasn't the entire idea that once the foreigners are no longer welcoming the rising market will start employ the local population and drive down unemployment? And yet, almost 3 years later (Jan 1st is around the corner) the unemployment is still rising. Who would've thought that isolating yoursel…

Looks lower than ever, https://www.statista.com/statistics/279898/unemployment-rate...

Re: UK households set for largest fall in living standards in six decades

#116

Post by thoughtstheseus »

piva00 wrote: post #97
thoughtstheseus wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Poor trade relations is a big drag on the UK economy. If you can’t plan you can’t invest. I’m hoping the UK joins the United States. We’ve already started to merge our military industrial base and have a long, shared history. Maybe they would receive preference for US LNG/coal shipments too as a result.

> I’m hoping the UK joins the United States. We’ve already started to merge our military industrial base and have a long, shared history. Maybe they would receive preference for US LNG/coal shipments too as a result. This is unrealistic bordering absurd, you just came out of Brexit sold under the pretense of increased freedom and sovereignty. The UK didn't even like the special deal it had with the EU, unique concess…

Our difference seems to be that I don’t put much weight on your view that nationalism will dominate the discussion. Standard of living will. My hope is UK citizens make decisions to benefit themselves, their family, friends, and community.

The UK cannot maintain its current standard of living without a very large partnership of some sort. Once living standards get bad enough people will be open to non-traditional options.

The EU can’t offer much energy, national security, or manufacturing support these days and U.S. is the only other reasonable option. A partnership, statehood, or something similar with the U.S. would immediately position the UK as the most powerful and desirable region in Europe IMO.

It would also not be one state, more likely 4. England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. They would each get a voice in the USA Federal government. Opportunity of a generation IMO.

Re: UK households set for largest fall in living standards in six decades

#117

Post by KptMarchewa »

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #81
zx85wes wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consider yourself lucky you're not across the sea in the Netherlands. Inflation is 14%+ and household purchasing power is below the level it was 20 years ago.

I mean that's like every other EU county at this point. Is there anything specific to the Netherlands I'm missing?

>I mean that's like every other EU county at this point.

Poland GDP per capita PPP is twice the amount 20 year ago. Most neighboring EU countries have similar results.

Re: UK households set for largest fall in living standards in six decades

#118

Post by Moissanite »

stu432 wrote: post #100
Moissanite wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like we need a progressive VAT, which differentiates necessities from luxuries. Probably too complex to implement though.

We do already, there's several VAT values, necessities are supposed to be VAT free for instance. Has some quirks in it, so you end up with the Jaffa Cake Vs Biscuit debacle - https://www.astonshaw.co.uk/news/jaffa-cake-tax/#:~:text=The... .

I was aware of the biscuit thing, but think it should just be rolled out more widely. We sort of have that with luxury cars, but an across the board increase of VAT to 30% on high-end goods is really what going for - defining luxury goods is left as an exercise for the reader.

Re: UK households set for largest fall in living standards in six decades

#119

Post by KptMarchewa »

unity1001 wrote: post #79
kypro wrote: post #30

I'll get downvoted for this, but this isn't true if you're one of the two protected classes in the UK: pensioners or welfare recipients. Both will see their income rise with inflation. If you're working then, sure, you're getting screwed as always because after just spending billions locking down the economy to saving boomers from Covid, this year we decided to spend billions bailing out boomers pensions, paying for…

> boomers pensions Those boomers spend that money. The money enters the economy. It creates the economic activity needed for the ones who you call 'those who work' to be able to do business and make money. Pumping money to boomers, the poor, disabled and the underprivileged is the easiest way to stimulate an economy. Not giving more money to the rich. > all the money we've borrowed for the boomers Those boomers have…

>Those boomers spend that money. The money enters the economy. It creates the economic activity needed for the ones who you call 'those who work' to be able to do business and make money.

Let's break some windows to create more economic activity, amirite?

>Its THEIR money.

They paid fuck all and set up a system that disproportionally rewards them and robs a future generations.

Re: UK households set for largest fall in living standards in six decades

#120

Post by gizajob »

thoughtstheseus wrote: post #66
buserror wrote: post #32

brexit. Everyone in the media try to ignore the elephant in the room. But, brexit. I know several companies who are winding down, because they can't export. Just too much trouble and money. It is everywhere, and nobody talks about it. brexit.

Poor trade relations is a big drag on the UK economy. If you can’t plan you can’t invest. I’m hoping the UK joins the United States. We’ve already started to merge our military industrial base and have a long, shared history. Maybe they would receive preference for US LNG/coal shipments too as a result.

Thanks but no thanks. Britain joining the USA would be hell on earth. Why would we want coal? We have loads of it that we don't even dig out of the ground any more.
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