111–120 of 318 posts
Saying that last month had 536 posts, and that that was a low since June of 2020 seems much more interesting IMO.
I don't know the intention of the author, but I see like a lot of "Look, it's happening! The economy is going down!" posts pop up these days. Which may be true, but it can also be a self-fulfilling profecy if everyone is doing that on all platforms. Which would be a shame. I'm not saying HN and other platforms should censor (/ take action) either. It's just a thought I have on this subject, and I don't know if there…
Why does his intent matter unless you think the data is being skewed or misrepresented? Seems like a fairly objective factual post to me (but I didn’t run the numbers myself).
I would appreciate if data observations like this always included the script so people could easily (and quickly) verify the results, but that’s just a personal knit pick.
Months when the 1st falls on a Saturday or Sunday.
May & October 2016
January, April, July & October 2017
April, July, September & December 2018
June, September, December 2019
February, March, August & November 2020
May & August 2021
January, May, October 2022
I feel like people are trying to wish the economy into a recession / depression, but I really don't see it happening. I do see some belt tightening wrt SaaS expenditures. There's still a massive demand for labor. While the housing market has fallen, the actual cost of buying a house is still rising. Rate increases have well outpaced the list price reductions. So I think all this talk of a recession is just a bunch of…
Depending on your personal financial circumstances, it may be many months before you end up "seeing this with your own eyes". Inflation won't eat up your savings over night - but over a period of 5-10 years, combined with increasing energy prices, interest rates, costs of living and salary stagnation? A lot can change. It's a boiling frog situation...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is the obvious answer
No. It's the answer that fulfills your own confirmation bias. "Obvious" is never a word you should use when you can quantify the truth.
I don't know the intention of the author, but I see like a lot of "Look, it's happening! The economy is going down!" posts pop up these days. Which may be true, but it can also be a self-fulfilling profecy if everyone is doing that on all platforms. Which would be a shame. I'm not saying HN and other platforms should censor (/ take action) either. It's just a thought I have on this subject, and I don't know if there…
I believe the intent is to share as a possible leading indicator. I don't know the OP's exact reasoning, but I have tracked this data for years at hntrends.com and it was my original thesis that this thread is a leading indicator of the tech job market at a minimum.
Who is hiring vs. wants to be hired (top-level) post count disparity could be a fun one to track.
I actually check that sometimes. Anecdotally, I remember the ratio being ~4.5 in 2019, then ~3.5 during the pandemic. This month it's at 1.8 I don't know if it really means anything though.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I believe the intent is to share as a possible leading indicator. I don't know the OP's exact reasoning, but I have tracked this data for years at hntrends.com and it was my original thesis that this thread is a leading indicator of the tech job market at a minimum.
How can you call it a leading indicator of the tech job market when it is a tech job market?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Zimbabwe has 200% interest rates and 280% inflation iirc https://www.africanews.com/2022/06/28/zimbabwes-key-interest... Why am I being downvoted? All this is is a data point showing that rising interest rates don't have to bring down inflation.
I don't think people should downvote you for disagreement, but I do disagree with your analysis. The US has a system where the Fed lets banks manage the money creation, and they control that by changing the interest rates to change the bank's incentives. In Zimbabwe, the government prints money directly (or at least they did under the Mugabe government, I am not up to date on their current affairs), which means that…
Furthermore, most money in the USA isn't even reserves, but rather bank deposits. Theoretically bank deposits are supposedly somehow constrained by reserves, but that hasn't really been true for well over a decade. Raising rates doesn't directly impair banks ability to originate as many new loans and corresponding deposits as they care to. Conceivably, higher rates could reduce the demand for loans from credit-worthy borrowers, or even reduce the pool of credit-worthy borrowers directly, but I'm not sure it doesn't end up being a wash after accounting for inflation.
Personally I suspect most of the effects that we do see are related to hysteresis rather than a fundamental transmission mechanism from interest rates. That is to say, the shocking effects we see from rate increases aren't due to a fundamental change, but rather a lag while market participants to catch up with the new rules of the game.
Another important factor is the prestige media using all of its persuasive powers to convince market participants that Fed actions will result in a downturn. There certainly is a large psychological component to economic activity.