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Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

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Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#111

Post by teaearlgraycold »

bostonsre wrote: post #64
beepbooptheory wrote: post #57

I just have no confidence that we can really know anything for sure one way or another. The media so far (in the West) ranges from tangibly self-conscious to overt propaganda, much of which is proven false a day later. There is no harm in this in itself, propaganda is as much part of the war as any other part, I get that, but I at this point I wouldn't be surprised that Russia is doing much better than what is being…

What are some examples of "propaganda" that proved to be false a day later?

Not what you're asking about, but I'd classify the filtering for what people want to hear as propaganda. Why is so much of the news I see about Ukrainian battle victories while Russians are clearly advancing on multiple fronts? There could easily be more coverage of Russian victories than Ukrainian if we were shown a random sample of phone footage.

I'm not complaining - these things have a tangible effect on morale. But it is propaganda.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#112

Post by stefan_ »

mattmanser wrote: post #102
awb wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Were these reported by mainstream / reputable sources? I only saw them on social media. But I did see a source that radiation did rise around Chernobyl, probably due to dust getting kicked up by vehicles and foot traffic.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/25/ukraine-soldie... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/04/zaporizhzhia-n...

Still with the power plant? There was a live YouTube stream of Oleg from Vladivostok shelling at whatever. Do you think the guy making $50 a month to die for Putin knows what the hell he is shooting at?

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#113

Post by user3939382 »

krastanov wrote: post #86
imwillofficial wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ghost of Kiev Snake Island Soldiers Dying Heroically Nuclear Reactor Shelled, Radiation Rising

I think you are conflating media and social media. If any of these stories were picked by something like NYT, it would be "here are some examples of local stories going around to strengthen the morale", never as "truth". Actually, even reddit comments were generally "I know the Ghost is made up, it would be silly to believe it, but gosh, it is a good story". Moreover, the radiation in Chernobil did rise (measurably,…

> you are conflating media and social media

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/25/ukraine-soldie...

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-snake-island-soldiers-russi...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-sold...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/24/russia-ukrai...

I could go on, but you get the point. These were definitely fake stories propagated by the western media as part of their propaganda campaign against Russia. Even if these outlets didn't know they were fake, they also didn't bother to check.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#114

Post by paxys »

jcadam wrote: post #13

Zelensky is starting to sound like he's open to considering some of Russia's stated terms (no pursuit of NATO membership and cession of eastern Ukraine). That doesn't sound like things are going especially well for him.

Cession of eastern territories and Crimea is probably not going to be too difficult a decision, considering Russia controls them anyways and did so even before the war.

Demilitarization of Ukraine, NATO membership and relations with the west in general are all going to be very contentious, and it's hard to see a solution here that both sides will accept.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#115

Post by stickfigure »

mullen wrote: post #96
wackro wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>call Putin's nuclear bluff. And what do you think would be the outcome?

Nothing. A Nuclear Bluff is just that, a Bluff. Putin can't win in a nuclear war and if he uses nukes anywhere, he is done for. No one is going to have anything to do with him or Russia on any level after that.

No one is going to have anything to do with Putin after launching a nuclear first strike because he'll be dead. Along with most of the population of Russia and a big chunk of the rest of the world too. And Putin knows this. Thus, it's a bluff.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#116

Post by menomatter »

xxpor wrote: post #74
twblalock wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Russian government knew there would be sanctions no matter what happened. They had already decided to accept those even in the event of victory. They aren't in a no-win scenario either. Kyiv cannot hold out forever. The Russians have an overwhelming numeric advantage and they can simply wait out the defenders, using that time to fix their supply lines. It's tempting to exaggerate a Russian setback into a total co…

>Kyiv cannot hold out forever. I agree with that, but if it takes going Full Grozny or Idlib on them, what's the point, other than saving face?

You mean Alleppo. Idlib still under opposition/Turkish proxies.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#117

Post by JimBlackwood »

imwillofficial wrote: post #71
bostonsre wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are some examples of "propaganda" that proved to be false a day later?

Ghost of Kiev Snake Island Soldiers Dying Heroically Nuclear Reactor Shelled, Radiation Rising

For your third point I think you are mixing things up. Zaporizhzhia was shelled and afaik no increase in radiation was mentioned in any news I read. News also stressed that an office building was shelled, not the actual reactor.

Chernobyl there were rumors about a nuclear waste depot being blown up and subsequent increase in radiation. However, it was always mentioned that this could be due to troop movement over contaminated soil and there were never worrying radiation numbers.

Edit: I previously said the control room was on fire but can’t find a source anymore.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#118

Post by tablespoon »

bcrosby95 wrote: post #97
WJW wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Supplying the Ukrainians with food, water and weapons is a good start. Supplying them early warnings about troop movements from satellite imagery and cracked Russian communications would be a second, and it would be very deniable to boot. Sanctions will reduce the ability of the Russians to keep up the offensive in the mid-term, and there is indirect pressure to be exerted via the Chinese (who are miffed at the lack…

> Supplying the Ukrainians with food, water and weapons is a good start. Countries have been very public about doing this. > Supplying them early warnings about troop movements from satellite imagery and cracked Russian communications would be a second, and it would be very deniable to boot. They're pretty obviously doing this, Ukranian forces seem to have a lot of knowledge about Russian movements. > And finally the…

> They're pretty obviously doing this, Ukranian forces seem to have a lot of knowledge about Russian movements.

There are direct reports of this. IIRC, they're taking raw intelligence, scrubbing it to hide sources and methods (they think the Ukrainian government is full of Russian spies), and refraining from recommending specific actions based on it (because they feel like that would cross some stupid line and irritate the Russians too much). My understanding is that they've been able to get timely updates the the Ukrainians pretty quickly.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#119

Post by paxys »

CodeGlitch wrote: post #18

Here's my prediction: Russia will take control of all or most nuclear power plants and other infrastructure. At which point it's only a matter of time until the people of Ukraine will surrender with no water or electricity. As it stands the West can do nothing. In the case that NATO starts shooting, the sarcophagus over Chernobyl can be bombed (Putin can blame Ukrainians here). It seems to be that there's no way out…

Nuclear fallout in Ukraine is going to affect Russia more than it affects "the west". It makes zero strategic sense to start bombing nuclear plants.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#120

Post by jcadam »

mullen wrote: post #96
wackro wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>call Putin's nuclear bluff. And what do you think would be the outcome?

Nothing. A Nuclear Bluff is just that, a Bluff. Putin can't win in a nuclear war and if he uses nukes anywhere, he is done for. No one is going to have anything to do with him or Russia on any level after that.

In any case, get used to brinksmanship like this now that the Pax Americana is coming to an end.
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