Even if it turns out not be genuine, he still makes some very good points. The last part about nothing indicating Putin is suicidal in particular.
Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst
111–120 of 275 posts
Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst
#112Interesting: news[1] just came out of Russia accusing Ukraine of working on a dirty bomb. This makes the letter seem more plausible, if it really preceeds the news. [1]: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-without-evidence...
The dirty bomb thing isn't anything new, and definitely precedes this. Both google and bing have blocked all RT.com results here in Germany, duck.com luckily still lets me search for it.
2009: https://www.rt.com/news/the-price-of-mass-destruction/
>Ukraine’s security service has arrested a group suspected of trying to sell a container of radioactive material. Officials say there was enough of the substance to create a dirty bomb, which could have posed a serious threat to the entire region.
2014: https://www.rt.com/news/ukraine-nuclear-arsenal-threat-314/
> While the uranium Ukraine gets from Russia for its reactors is low-enriched, reactor waste is quite enough to make a so-called dirty bomb. The country possesses manpower and know-how to do that as well as delivery vehicles for nuclear payload, which don’t have to be too sophisticated.
2015: https://www.rt.com/op-ed/311869-uranium-ukraine-nuclear-poro...
> According to Ukraine's security forces, they have seized nuclear material from a criminal gang that was trying to sell it. The substance is said to be Uranium-238, which can be used to create a so-called 'dirty bomb'
edit: Clarification for the many downvoting, this is in response to OP specifically saying "This makes the letter seem more plausible, if it really preceeds the news".
Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst
#113This sounds like when I was a solution architect working for a large consultancy a number of years back.
They don’t exist now.
Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst
#114Is there any proof that Chechens soldiers have suffered heavy losses? There were rumors that Ukrainian army bombarded them after the Chechens themselves leaked their positions by posting videos on tiktok/instagram/telegram. The Kadyrov part in this text seems to be built on these rumors. edit: the part i am referring to: Kadyrov's lost his mind. Almost started another conflict with us. It's possible that the Ukrainia…
Let's not forget the US eye in the sky. I wonder if the US has now the ability to track the movement of every single tank, anti-air defense, troop carrier, across a whole country. It seems plausible to me.
Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst
#115Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Northern Africa (maghreb, egypt, etc..) is hugely dependent on wheat from Ukraine and Russia. I dont think the US and Europe really care about that, they will send some token supplies but its not going to change their decision about Russia just because people in Africa are starving.
The only way to guarantee sustained Ukrainian grain production is for the Russians to withdraw or for Ukrainians to surrender. I don't think the Ukrainians are obliged to surrender to stop people in other countries from starving. This is on Russia.
Would the Ukrainian agricultural sectors continue to operate effectively if Russia fully occupied the country, knowing that their wealth might be stolen? Would Russia move to bring their own oligarchs in to colonise and control production? Either way the restoration of production would take much longer than if Russia simply retreated.
Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst
#116Interesting: news[1] just came out of Russia accusing Ukraine of working on a dirty bomb. This makes the letter seem more plausible, if it really preceeds the news. [1]: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-without-evidence...
Russia has been a accusing Ukraine of working to acquire nuclear weapons, with US assistance, for quite a while, though the specification that they intend to produce a dirty bomb may be a new twist on it.
You could see this - and possibly a false flag operation - as Russia's justification in using nuclear weapons against Ukraine because 'they did it first'.
Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst
#117Earlier quoted context omitted.
This one was definitely a red flag for me regarding authenticity. It seems far more like a slow surge offensive, siege technically. Look at US in Iraq, shock and awe was more akin to "blitzkrieg" and even that campaign took 3 weeks to secure Baghdad.
I'd say one theory I have to back this up is that Germany was briefed by Russia about the imminent invasion and Germans were asked to stall sanctions until Sunday (3rd or 4th day of invasion) as it will be over by then. When it became clear that invasion is not going to plan, Germany changed their stance 180 degree. Unfortunately I cannot give source for that, but you can follow official German briefings from when th…
>Germany was briefed by Russia about the imminent invasion and Germans were asked to stall sanctions until Sunday (3rd or 4th day of invasion) as it will be over by then.
Do you have a source for this? I can't find anything to support this, then again the internet is quite flooded with articles with similar search terms.
Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst
#118Earlier quoted context omitted.
As soon as you have more than two people you have politics, regardless of whether it is small "p" politics or big "P" politics. Politics is a function of human communities, there is a 100% correlation. I suspect what you were looking for is not "no politics" but "be conservative in what you say and liberal in what you hear", i.e. think more of the group than yourself. Or for those who can't read between the lines; "d…
No, I mean strict ban on sight no politics like it helped usenet and irc communities in the 90s and helps slack, discord, reddit and other forums right now. Stay on topic or gtfo.
HN tried banning "all politics" once. it was one of the bigger clusterfucks in the history of the site.
Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst
#119It was a tense week, but Russia has lost the war. They can drag it out, but ultimately victory will go to Ukraine.
The reasons for this are subtle but obvious. The Russian military machine can't operate outside of Russia. They have no way of transporting fuel, ammunition, food, and other supplies to the front lies.
This means that their effective operational capabilities are limited to five days.
It's been a hobby of mine to analyze decisive battles from history -- or rather to parrot 100 Decisive Battles https://www.amazon.com/100-Decisive-Battles-Ancient-Present/...
But after analyzing 100 of something (or in my case probably closer to 23), you start to notice some patterns.
The reason Midway was the end of the war for Japan was that it eliminated their ability to carry supplies and troops beyond their borders. At the time, aircraft carriers were the only way to do this. No aircraft carriers meant no protection from aircraft, which meant no way to move troops on boats.
At the heart of it, Japan losing WW2 was as simple as that.
Russia is in an equivalent situation. There's no way for them to carry fuel beyond their borders. Ukraine exploited this weakness brilliantly. Any time Russia tried to send fuel, kaboom.
Russia losing this war is as simple as that. They lost the war the day they lost the airport. No airport means no way to transport large quantities of fuel without relying on trucks. And Russia doesn't have a lot of trucks -- not on the scale of a 150,000 troop invasion.
The question is, what now? All eyes are on Putin, of course. But his goal was to topple Ukraine's government. And governments can't topple unless you invade them. No amount of shelling from afar -- indeed, even a nuke, though there is a limit -- will topple Ukraine.
That means Putin's options are extremely limited. It either makes him more dangerous or less dangerous, depending on how you look at it. Everyone now knows (including Putin) that he can't project power beyond his borders.
The only hope that Russia has of winning this war is to stop, retrain, and focus on logistics from the ground up. That would require purging every general who thought it was a good idea to move troops in with no supply line. Russia historically has been a fan of purges, so this isn't impossible. But it will take time.
Time is not on Putin's side.
Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst
#120Interesting: news[1] just came out of Russia accusing Ukraine of working on a dirty bomb. This makes the letter seem more plausible, if it really preceeds the news. [1]: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-without-evidence...
The dirty bomb thing isn't anything new, and definitely precedes this. Both google and bing have blocked all RT.com results here in Germany, duck.com luckily still lets me search for it. 2009: https://www.rt.com/news/the-price-of-mass-destruction/ >Ukraine’s security service has arrested a group suspected of trying to sell a container of radioactive material. Officials say there was enough of the substance to create…
Believing anything RT have ever written, especially about Ukraine is, to put it mildly, not the best strategy.