If it turns out to be human error related, how much liability falls on the actual ship's captain versus the required canal pilot?
It does not work like that on the seas. Maritime legal conventions are are ratified by 99% countries on the globe. A shipowner is alwayd insured against these things, and the i surance company is also insured (reinsurance). So nobody will end up in a lifetime of serfdom because of this. Shit hits the fan on the high seas all the time. We nornally don't hear about it in regular media.
Whenever you see such absurdly high numbers attached to cost estimates, always try to understand how they calculate it. This took the "$400 million / hour of shipped goods are being delayed" figure and ran with it by multiplying it, claiming that's the total damage cost. Now ask yourself: Let's say you're sending a parcel via UPS that contains an iphone, or simply $1000 worth of goods. At the last stopping point of t…
Delivery to end customers is not equivalent to delivery as part of a supply chain. Instead of $1K of iPhones, think of it as $1Mn worth of components for a manufacturing process or items to be placed on a shelf. Many of those items' shipping timeframes are well-known and factored into calculations of supply and demand. If a customer wants to buy something from you and you're out of stock, they're generally not going…
I've heard from multiple sources that about $9b per day in commerce goes through the Suez, so that's probably just $9b * number of days stuck. I imagine the cost is actually quite a bit more, as the ripple effect from this traffic jam will continue for at least another month while shipments are diverted or delayed until traffic pressure returns to normal.
I would image the opposite tbh, that $9b of delayed goods per day is not lost, it's just delayed. Most of that goods, unless they are perishable goods, will sell like normal, just a bit later.
There is obviously a loss here on increased costs and loss of sell opportunities due to the delay, but that figures are mega inflated IMO.
Also, if we’re being honest, a pack of software nerds on a website don’t have the deep expertise on every topic like they think they do (speaking as a software nerd on a website myself :)). The stuff that gets posted here sometimes is...fascinating.
Ever since I discovered n-gate.com HN comments read a little different than they used to...
That's too bad. Now the hysterical media will have to find something else to get worked up about.
I, for one, was thankful that we had something relatively non-polarizing in the news to discuss. "Stuck boat needs to get unstuck" is the kind of practical problem that people on both sides of the fence can agree on :)
I've heard from multiple sources that about $9b per day in commerce goes through the Suez, so that's probably just $9b * number of days stuck. I imagine the cost is actually quite a bit more, as the ripple effect from this traffic jam will continue for at least another month while shipments are diverted or delayed until traffic pressure returns to normal.
A better calculation is to see how much Egypt makes per day in Canal fees and use that as an estimate, as the canal fees are set to make it just a bit cheaper to use the canal vs the horn.
I've heard from multiple sources that about $9b per day in commerce goes through the Suez, so that's probably just $9b * number of days stuck. I imagine the cost is actually quite a bit more, as the ripple effect from this traffic jam will continue for at least another month while shipments are diverted or delayed until traffic pressure returns to normal.
It's not like the $9b of daily commerce that can't get through the canal is being set alight and tipped overboard, it will reach its destination in the end. Some of that produce might have gone off, or the delay in its arrival causes knock-on costs, but the final cost is only going to be a fraction of that figure, not a large multiple!
I agree that it won't be a large multiple, but, I do think it's naive to assume that it'll be a fraction of the cost. Consider the shear volume of stuff being transported. Millions of tons of goods across hundreds of delayed transports, some perishable, some with tight timeline requirements, some with tight contract requirements. And it's not like as soon as ships start moving again all of that cost will go away. Ships are still going to be diverted for weeks of not months to relieve traffic pressure.
Whenever you see such absurdly high numbers attached to cost estimates, always try to understand how they calculate it. This took the "$400 million / hour of shipped goods are being delayed" figure and ran with it by multiplying it, claiming that's the total damage cost. Now ask yourself: Let's say you're sending a parcel via UPS that contains an iphone, or simply $1000 worth of goods. At the last stopping point of t…
One impact I read about was that Egypt makes ~$300K per ship in tolls, which they won't make if ships take the long route around Africa instead.
The HN crowd tends to be heavily bearish on pretty much everything here, and there's an ironic lack of respect for experts in fields beyond those few HN favorite topics (e.g., low-level programming languages). So, the difference in the expected outcome here doesn't surprise me.
Tesla and SpaceX?
HN tends to be pretty bearish on Tesla, although overall bullish on SpaceX.