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Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

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Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#111

Post by hoorayimhelping »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #34
airstrike wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm also hearing this morning that we've hit the 10% mark. I also heard the same economist say "The economy is collapsing, and it's a global collapse". I don't even need coffee to be alert the rest of the day...

Any speculations on how bad is this going to get? Should I stock up on TP, on food, or on vodka and ammo?

You know those signs we memed the hell out of last decade? They're so cliched that they don't mean anything anymore, but think of those.

    Keep calm and carry on
You should relax. We're not the first humans to see some hardship. Everything isn't going to fall apart because the economy has a downturn. Society isn't going to collapse because of this. It didn't happen in the 1600s, nor the 1700s, nor the 1800s, nor the 1900s. It's not going to happen in the 2000s.

Two global wars, the use of nuclear weapons, and a 50 year cold war with the ever present threat of nuclear apocalypse didn't cause society to break down last century, a flu won't cause it to fall apart this century either.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#112

Post by enraged_camel »

_-___________-_ wrote: post #65
adrianN wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It kills 1% if ICU care is available. It kills a lot more if the healthcare system is overwhelmed. Look at Spain or Italy. Case fatality rate is around 10%. Letting it run its course it needs to infect 60-70% of the population before herd immunity kicks in. 1% of 60% of the population of the US is 2 million people. World-wide you're looking at 45 million people for a very optimistic scenario. The numbers could easily…

The comment you're replying to referred to "1% of the people who get it", which has basically nothing to do with CFR. Getting the virus is necessary but far from sufficient to become a case.

Not quite. 1% of people who get it don't survive when healthcare resources are not strained. But when ICUs fill up, that number starts to skyrocket, because people who need intensive care cannot get it.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#113

Post by nkozyra »

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #20
bearjaws wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And they want us to believe that it will be ok because of a $1200 check and state unemployment benefits....

> And they want us to believe that it will be ok because of a $1200 check and state unemployment benefits.... Not true. The unemployment benefits have also been augmented by up to $600/week above state unemployment benefits. This amount applies even if your state benefits have been exhausted. The $1200 is an extra stimulus check for people whether or not they’re still employed. Not to be confused with the unemploymen…

I don't think the $1200 goes to everyone, though, right? There's an income threshold.

I mean, the number is almost irrelevant given the extent of the crisis. Might as well make it a million a person because some fundamental truths of the economy are going to completely change.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#114

Post by generalpass »

rimliu wrote: post #88
generalpass wrote: post #17

I hope that tech industry employees do not feel immune to this. I encourage you to take a look at your customer base and think very critically about where that money is actually coming from.

I also encourage to look at all the business rushing to have online presence/sales. When online suddenly becomes the only way to sell your stuff… When online suddenly become the only way for you to teach new skills...

> I also encourage to look at all the business rushing to have online presence/sales. When online suddenly becomes the only way to sell your stuff… When online suddenly become the only way for you to teach new skills...

True, but selling implies buying...

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#115

Post by ianleeclark »

xwdv wrote: post #98
treyfitty wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While the benefits amount to something small for cities... they've largely been the ones hit the hardest. NYC residents are more or less being ignored in these stimulus packages.

NYC residents don’t need help, if you can make it there, you can make it anywhere, and if you can’t make it, leave and free up some real estate for those who can.

What a cruel thing to say.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#116

Post by mrfusion »

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #31

Unemployment benefits have been significantly expanded under the Coronavirus aid bill. The benefit amounts will sound small if you're living in an expensive city like SF or Seattle, but $600/week from the federal government and a similar amount from state unemployment insurance means that unemployment benefits can pay up to an equivalent of $50-60K/year right now. That goes a long way in most parts of the country, es…

I don’t understand the 600$/week? Does everyone get that? Will it be back paid if my state doesn’t process me for weeks?

Does my state have to apply for this?

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#118

Post by fock »

dante_dev wrote: post #87
adrianN wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It kills 1% if ICU care is available. It kills a lot more if the healthcare system is overwhelmed. Look at Spain or Italy. Case fatality rate is around 10%. Letting it run its course it needs to infect 60-70% of the population before herd immunity kicks in. 1% of 60% of the population of the US is 2 million people. World-wide you're looking at 45 million people for a very optimistic scenario. The numbers could easily…

In Italy you see 10% mortality because Italy tests only (really) sick people. It's really likely that millions of italians have covid. This is not really demonstrable at the moment, but still https://www.wantedinrome.com/news/coronavirus-report-six-mil... Italy is treating every single patient with high standard healthcare. They did not reach the "0 free ICUs" moment yet. What we can say as of today is that the high…

sick of hearing this silliness: https://www.ecodibergamo.it/stories/bergamo-citta/coronaviru... so yeah, they barely test half the dead people (which are still double the normal deaths...). And A LOT of covid patients means a lot of deaths as well, bc. at 1.3% (Diamond Princess, where people are still not through it/dying) to 5% letality, the thing IS BAD.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#119

Post by leetrout »

treyfitty wrote: post #92

For those living in cities that are locked down, what do yall do about daycare? In NYC, my daycare isn't reimbursing fees, so we're continuing to be charged with a promise of "if insurance pays out, we'll pass it down." With 2 kids, that’s $5,000. Assuming they’re closed for 3 months total, that’s $15,000 down the drain. Now, I get that they're a small business, but their problem is that they can't exactly layoff the…

Our daycare here in NC has now stopped charging fees and I assume laid off / furloughed some staff because of it. I've not heard of them getting assistance but I've not researched it either. They had not decided to do that out of the gate and we were OK with still paying because my wife and I were still being paid and the employees at the daycare work very hard.

I'm sure it's higher in NYC but at ~$750 / month average it's a significant budget item in our house.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#120

Post by matwood »

stupandaus wrote: post #2

Building on my analysis from last week: 1. This week's 6.6M new jobless claims represents ~4% of the estimated ~160-165M US Workforce. 2. This is incremental to the 3.3M new jobless claims filed week ending 3/21, totaling ~10M total jobless claims in the past 2 weeks. 3. The US unemployment rate was ~3.5% as of EOM February [1], so cumulatively that means we've hit ~10% unemployment as of EOW 3/28 (~10M incremental j…

Correct. Todays number isn't even much of a surprise, although it's still shocking to see. I thought the consensus estimate was way too low. Some analysts have been kicking around 20%-30% unemployment before this is all over.
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