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The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

nytimes.com

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Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#111

Post by aaron695 »

dis-sys wrote: post #8

There is no way to stop the virus in the US - 10 million undocumented immigrants in the US can not afford to sit at home and watch TV for 3 months, they can't help you to do your fancy contact tracing to expose their families and friends who are also undocumented. They can't afford to be tested or treated as none of them will be on the government hands out list. How could you stop the coronavirus when 10 million REAL…

This is a well thought out insightful comment.

The current downvotes and comments against it say a lot about HN and why we really can't tackle this virus.

We can't even take on another species attacking human kind logically.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#112

Post by kiliantics »

oefrha wrote: post #74
thinkingemote wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe that the trend to call vast numbers of people selfish and irrational is itself inaccurate and part of in group psychology. People who are not like our group are immoral. Perhaps someone is struggling with drugs or mental issues or poverty and needs to go out, perhaps there are other factors which should not be waved way as selfishness or being jerks? How can you tell? It's easier not to bother and have less…

I’m pretty sure people who go to pubs and beaches aren’t people who are “struggling with drugs or mental issues or poverty and need to go out”.

I don't know about beaches. I can easily go to a beach and stay more than 2m away from others and I get to enjoy lots of fresh air, exercise, and time outside of my tiny apartment. Definitely a necessary therapy in these times.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#113

Post by aww_dang »

asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #110
aww_dang wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are two separate ideas at play here. 1)The credibility of the WHO in regards to the CCP. 2)The culpability of CCP in regards to covering up the pandemic which began in territory it controls. Allegedly this outbreak began in November. Doctors who warned about it were arrested. Your response references a third issue 3)Western officials had sufficient time to formulate a 'better' response

To the extent the CCP covered this up in Nov/Dec, it was definitely an evil act. However, I don't think that should very much move the needle on what we believe about the state on the ground in China today. The country is not so closed off that they could hide ongoing mass COVID infections. The WHO's agreement is only one of the several datapoints I mentioned.

Economic, pollution data is similarly manipulated. Local officials have incentives to misreport this data.

Why should infection data be any different?

The current CCP narrative is that all new cases are imported. Do you find this credible?

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#114

Post by adrianN »

oefrha wrote: post #74
thinkingemote wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe that the trend to call vast numbers of people selfish and irrational is itself inaccurate and part of in group psychology. People who are not like our group are immoral. Perhaps someone is struggling with drugs or mental issues or poverty and needs to go out, perhaps there are other factors which should not be waved way as selfishness or being jerks? How can you tell? It's easier not to bother and have less…

I’m pretty sure people who go to pubs and beaches aren’t people who are “struggling with drugs or mental issues or poverty and need to go out”.

Only half-jokingly, people who go to the pub during a pandemic might have an alcohol problem.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#115

Post by asdfasgasdgasdg »

aww_dang wrote: post #113
asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To the extent the CCP covered this up in Nov/Dec, it was definitely an evil act. However, I don't think that should very much move the needle on what we believe about the state on the ground in China today. The country is not so closed off that they could hide ongoing mass COVID infections. The WHO's agreement is only one of the several datapoints I mentioned.

Economic, pollution data is similarly manipulated. Local officials have incentives to misreport this data. Why should infection data be any different? The current CCP narrative is that all new cases are imported. Do you find this credible?

I don't know if I believe the exact numbers. I think they are likely at the right order of magnitude.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#116

Post by eloisant »

glandium wrote: post #77
jtdev wrote: post #23

I find it incredibly hard to believe that China has stopped community spread within the country - I hope I’m wrong, but I think we’re getting PRC propaganda when we hear about “all new cases we’re imported”.

I saw today on Japanese TV that China reportedly doesn't count asymptomatic people who tested positive as of the 14th of February, and that there might be 40k+ of those.

France:

- never tested asymptotic people - in the first weeks, didn't tested anyone unless they had symptoms AND came back from China or Italy - now only takes care of serious cases, which means that if you have mild symptoms you don't get tested

Official numbers a way, way lower than reality.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#117

Post by lostmsu »

goblin89 wrote: post #101
ShorsHammer wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pushing mobile alerts is what any country with half a clue should be doing. I get regular ones telling me to wash my hands and avoid contact, it's comforting to see them everyfew days.

In South Korea they were a bit overused I think. In addition to hand washing reminders, each phone is getting up to 2 loud but not-really-quite-actionable alerts per day, which report on 2–3 new cases discovered in nearby city districts. (But then the government uses the same alerts to notify about strong winds and elevated pollution levels, so it’s more or less a given.) The ones from yesterday were the first to ask…

I don't know. That actually sounds like a good option to trace/warn contacts.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#118

Post by beatgammit »

ShorsHammer wrote: post #76
palijer wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think preventing the almost guaranteed deaths of thousands is qualified as a "little" safety.

What actions do you think should be taken to stop other preventable deaths? I'm in a country that has banned all unnecessary movement, traffic/pedestrian accidents have dropped dramatically, it has saved magnitudes more from dying than from covid-19. Logically, all movement be banned then? Keen to hear a rationalisation for 10 traffic lives vs 1 contagious virus life. 10 people have died in 3 months since the virus w…

I'm with you. I don't think "saving lives" is a good enough reason to give up our freedoms (barring an apocalyptic event or something).

That being said, there's a lot we can do without infringing on freedoms too much. I think South Korea has a good model for handling disease spread, and The Netherlands has a good model for encouraging cycling and protecting cyclists from cars, both of which lead to lower vehicular deaths. Both countries were able to improve things without significantly disrupting society.

Yeah, maybe tens of thousands of people will die a few years before they would normally die without drastic measures, but the cost to save those lives doesn't seem to be worth it.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#119

Post by lower »

Mvandenbergh wrote: post #84
lower wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Which experts are proposing the way forward is actually a total lockdown? The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, for example: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... In Germany, the Society for Epidemiology has a similar analysis with similar conclusions: https://www.dgepi.de/assets/Stellungnahmen/Stellungnahme2020...

It is important to understand the context and timing of the Imperial paper. It was produced as part of UK government decision making in the days leading up to the 12th of March in order to make a binary decision between to immediate alternatives: Mitigate and flatten the curve or suppress and crush the curve. It was well understood by the authors that a permanent lockdown was not possible and that there would need to…

Right, both papers are mainly what should be done right now. They both conclude that a hard lockdown is the only realistic option that won't overload the health system in the next few months. It's not so clear what to do afterwards.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#120

Post by bitcharmer »

iso1631 wrote: post #32
dbbk wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe the UK just ordered millions of antibody tests, that will tell you if you've previously had the virus. If we can confirm that people who previously had it are immune, we should be able to selectively let those back into normal society a lot faster. That's my understanding, I may be wrong.

Which creates a two-tier society. Those with antibodies get to go about their business, go out to cafes and pubs, get hired for jobs which antibodyless people can't do. Those who don't have the antibodies are stuck under house arrest, so decide "ahh screw it, I'm going to go and get infected".

Would you rather keep the immune people at home to satisfy some odd urge of "social justice"?
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