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The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

nytimes.com

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Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#81

Post by deng »

drclau wrote: post #24
sjg007 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just wait until the virus mutates. Then things will really be fun.

I don’t know why you were downvoted. Maybe because of the second sentence? Mutation is a very real problem. After all flu goes through it all the time. That is the main reason why we get flu regularly. Second reason is that the immunity may be temporary.

So how do you fight mutation? By avoiding further spread of the virus. So really, this "danger of mutation" talk does not add anything to the discussion. In fact, it could equally well happen that the virus mutates to something less lethal.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#82

Post by ensiferum »

drinchev wrote: post #68

Back in time ( end of January ) when I heard the news about Wuhan and what happened there I was a bit worried, but always positive. When the virus spread in Italy ( I live in Berlin ) I was daily asking "Why don't they stop people from / to Italy?", "Why don't they go and help Italy?", "Where is a plan for handling the situation?", "Why nobody knows >how All in all the answers were : "They don't want to kill the econ…

Proactively shutting things down and restricting freedoms are politically impossible to implement. There's no incentive for any single politician to do anything like this because if it actually worked there'd be no visibility to the general public and thus nobody would understand what they actually did.

It's like the proverbial secret goverment agency that stops a bomb from going off and nobody knows what they did.

In politics this mean that the general public would only see the downsides of such measures and not the gains. This would not get a single politician re-elected.

Therefore in terms of politics it's much better and safer to be reactive only rather than proactive. Later speech can include statements "we could not have possibly known", "there was no indication that...", "it was a complete surprise...", "we acted as quickly as possbile..."

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#83

Post by mrdrozdov »

oefrha wrote: post #15
mrdrozdov wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t believe most people are jerks. They are just in disbelief that such a dire situation is possible. Yes, it’s important to ask and with a high level of seriousness. If the internet has taught me anything, it’s that people need to read something 8 or more times before fully internalizing it.

I didn’t say most people, I said “abound”. Even 5% of people ignoring “asking nicely” could deal critical damage containment efforts, and I suspect the number is more than 5%.

I meant that most of the people who are not self-isolating are not jerks.

To convince them to participate in containment, their more responsible friends, family, and colleagues need to reach out, and more importantly we need to have consistent messaging from the government.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#84

Post by Mvandenbergh »

lower wrote: post #72
cracker_jacks wrote: post #47

Which experts are proposing the way forward is actually a total lockdown? This article is distorting what experts are actually saying. This virus will not go away, it needs to be managed. Please consider the following articles of what experts are ACTUALLY saying: https://medium.com/@AmeshAA/covid19-a-path-forward-868d5e8dc... https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/coronavirus-us-must-confront...

> Which experts are proposing the way forward is actually a total lockdown? The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, for example: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... In Germany, the Society for Epidemiology has a similar analysis with similar conclusions: https://www.dgepi.de/assets/Stellungnahmen/Stellungnahme2020...

It is important to understand the context and timing of the Imperial paper. It was produced as part of UK government decision making in the days leading up to the 12th of March in order to make a binary decision between to immediate alternatives: Mitigate and flatten the curve or suppress and crush the curve.

It was well understood by the authors that a permanent lockdown was not possible and that there would need to be a step 2. They did some modelling of possible step 2 (proposing alternating lockdowns with relaxations for example) but did not go into detail on other options such as enhanced contact tracing, widespread testing, or other options.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#85

Post by balola »

glandium wrote: post #77
jtdev wrote: post #23

I find it incredibly hard to believe that China has stopped community spread within the country - I hope I’m wrong, but I think we’re getting PRC propaganda when we hear about “all new cases we’re imported”.

I saw today on Japanese TV that China reportedly doesn't count asymptomatic people who tested positive as of the 14th of February, and that there might be 40k+ of those.

They have this "zero-out" campaign, effectively goading local officials into reporting zero cases, you will need to think about your political career before reporting one.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#86

Post by danmaz74 »

throwaway4787 wrote: post #57
danmaz74 wrote: post #7

I'm an Italian living in the UK, so I've been following both the stats and the debate in Italy (and elsewhere) very closely. My conclusion is that whoever thinks that this problem can be not stopped, but contained to a manageable level without very strict steps is in for a bad surprise. And, given the exponential nature of initial growth, the earlier these steps are adopted, the less harsh they need to be.

If that's any reassurance to you they are observing an inflection in Italy, potentially a sign that the lockdowns have their desired effects. We just need to hold on for a couple weeks before it curves back as in China. And that's discounting the ongoing trials for treatments that could solve this quicker than expected.

That's my point - it took pretty harsh measures before we started getting any signs of the spread slowing down (and we'll need a few more days to verify that those signs are actually reliable).

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#87

Post by boomdiada »

aquaticsunset wrote: post #29
dis-sys wrote: post #8

There is no way to stop the virus in the US - 10 million undocumented immigrants in the US can not afford to sit at home and watch TV for 3 months, they can't help you to do your fancy contact tracing to expose their families and friends who are also undocumented. They can't afford to be tested or treated as none of them will be on the government hands out list. How could you stop the coronavirus when 10 million REAL…

Yes, during a global pandemic crisis like this, undocumented immigrants are the problem. I bet every single one of those people in Disney World last week, partygoers in New Orleans, and spring break beach students were overwhelmingly not undocumented immigrants. Fear mongering a disenfranchised population will get you nowhere.

I don't believe that was OPs point.

OP wasn't suggesting that immigrants are the problem, they are simply saying that you have to do something with 10M people that CAN'T participate in the system as designed. How do you solve for this variable?

If anything, this is a PRO immigrant stance. We need to take care of these people as well and can't think of them as _outside of the system_.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#88

Post by DennisP »

ShorsHammer wrote: post #36

South Korea has virtually no new active cases daily, only 100 deaths after 4 months of exposure and hasn't brought in any laws even close the authoritarian stuff that is going on elsewhere across the planet in the name of covid-19/sars-cov-2 Buyer beware. Undoing laws and measures is a lot harder than enacting them in a "crisis". "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deser…

That's because South Korea rolled out massive testing early, so they caught it before more extreme measures were necessary. On top of that, Koreans did a good job of voluntarily complying with social distancing measures.

https://www.thenation.com/article/world/coronavirus-south-ko...

And from the article:

> Everyone who is infected in South Korea goes into isolation in government shelters, and phones and credit card data are used to trace their prior movements and find their contacts. Where they walked before they fell ill is broadcast to the cellphones of everyone who was nearby.

> Anyone even potentially exposed is quarantined at home; a GPS app tells the police if that person goes outside. The fine for doing so is $8,000.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#89

Post by yomly »

jtdev wrote: post #23

I find it incredibly hard to believe that China has stopped community spread within the country - I hope I’m wrong, but I think we’re getting PRC propaganda when we hear about “all new cases we’re imported”.

While you are reasonable to be sceptical over the official reports, I have no insight into the true number, I am sure there is still some lingering virus floating around in China. That said, you are grossly underestimating the cultural response to this: here is some flavour of how people acted different in China.

Chinese New Year (equivalent to Christmas / New Year if you are a westerner) was effectively cancelled by the government, and I know that my in-laws at least adhered to this and all their neighbours did as well.

The government were happy to physically dig up roads to contain Wuhan, and people outside Hubei would snitch on people fleeing Hubei so they would be sent back.

My mother in-law has been in isolation since the end of January, solely venturing out to buy supplies. She wears a mask when she leaves, and she immediately showers + disinfects her clothes when she gets home.

This may surprise you, but she is not really in the minority. People in Asia are fairly risk-averse when it comes to contagion, coupled with the history of SARS, the community-level response to COVID-19 has been starkly different.

Separately, a friend living in Shanghai said (during February) that the only people out on streets were expats/foreigners.

Re: The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say

#90

Post by Zod666 »

iso1631 wrote: post #28
bitcharmer wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This. I'm terrified by the number of utter idiots violating the restrictions and putting so many vulnerable people at risk. Or those people recorded while spreading their spit all over a train cart. Where is this coming from? What is those people's end game? It can't be due to stupidity; there must be some malice in this behaviour as well, right?

Some people just want to watch the world burn

Some people want to watch the world sneeze
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