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Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

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Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#111
Or perhaps, VW exec hopes full self-driving cars may never happen, because it would imply a fleet approach where transportation would be a service instead of cars being a prized possession. That, of course, would mean far less cars. So don't expect a traditional car manufacturer to lead the way.

This is incidentally one reason for Tesla's huge market value. The company actually has a plan to transition from individual ownership to fleet, so when this happens it will be prepared to deal with a new manufacturing reality.

Just try to imagine VW without all those ads to sell a positive self image because you drive a sexy cool car they make.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#112
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>I can’t imagine paying $40,000+ on a new car that isn’t a Tesla right now It's personal & subjective, and nobody will persuade anybody in a thread, but FWIW I absolutely positively can. - I'm unlikely to utilize self-driving any time soon - The stories of their firmware terrify me. And I don't want a DAW and computer games running on my ECU :O - More pragmatically though, the Tesla UI paradigm is completely foreign…

Tesla's increasing have voice commands for most functions. What you said was true before but isn't now. Honestly this feature, being able to push updates to the entire fleet when ready is a significant killer feature.

Again, at the risk of sounding like a grouchy old man (which I suppose I am :P), when I'm chatting with my wife and kids, I have limited intetion of interrupting that conversation to turn on the lights or seat warmer or wipers or change a song :-/. And even when alone - the amount of time and subconscious effort to hit a button, vs converse with the computer...

Honestly - these shouldn't be "either or". Sure, have a screen and voice for those who prefer - but leave a button or six for us ol' timers :-)

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#113

Since when has VW been at the forefront of self driving cars? Is there a reason their insight would be especially accurate? This just reflects VWs ideas to accomplish the goal... ie: they have none. Let me know when Google says it's not possible.

Apple is in the top tier of self driving cars though. And since he recently worked there I am sure he knows quite a bit about where the industry is at.

> Apple is in the top tier of self driving cars though.

Citations needed. I consider Waymo, Cruise and couple of other companies in the top tier.

Disc: Googler

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#114
post #5

To go down in a long list of things executives said wouldn’t happen, that ended up happening.

What list? The one where Thomas Watson said there’d never be a world-wide market for more than five computers? Other than that, what else does that list have to stack up against: Nuclear power, let alone fusion . What happened to “too cheap to meter”? Supersonic travel: raynier already pointed out what a bust the Concorde was. Nothing else on the horizon now. Automation giving me a 20 hour work week. Nope, capital ho…

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Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#115
post #98

Volkswagen doesn't develop self-driving tech. They use Mobileye's solution like everyone expect Tesla, Waymo and GM/Cruise. They aren't really in the position to make that argument. Level 5 means that the car can drive autonomously > 95% of the time, and it will absolutely be possible. Level 4/5 distinction doesn't really make any sense once the autonomy gets beyond certain percentage. It doesn't mean that it's level…

This is not true. VW fully owns AID which is developing its level 4 stack. VW is also invested in Argo

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#116

Opinion: level 5 autonomy would be cool, but it's not where most of the value of self-driving cars is. Most of the value in being able to travel by auto without attention is in trips longer than 15 minutes. Commutes, tourism, vacations. Shipping. Most of which is certainly highway driving. If it's possible to automate highway driving under most conditions (and safely transition either to a stop or human-piloting when…

I think that Level 5 would be transformative.

It would be the end of owned cars, huge reduction of car production, millions of jobs in the transportation business amortized, to name just a few.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#118
post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand this. If there are 1/20th the amount of deaths, how is that going to sink self driving cars?

Because the deaths will be network level effects that a person would be helpless to mitigate through behavior. There's no sense of being a careful or responsible driver with a self-driving car; its all whether or not the algorithm or software is correct. It's a different type of potential error and a much more scary one. I can mitigate human drivers as a pedestrian by taking care walking, but I cannot mitigate an AI…

Because a jury will hand out a huge multi-million dollar award against a self-driving car company when its car crashes causing a death, while when a human causes a death it is usually just an "accident" or a much smaller settlement based on the person's insurance coverage.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#119
post #80
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, considering the accidents, maybe Tesla is "better" at self-driving in the same way Intel was better at speculative execution before they had to patch it.

The only company that knows what they are doing is Waymo (which actually launched self-driving taxi service in Phoenix), Tesla and others are kind of "fake it until you make it" crowd.

Waymo has 600 cars in a very limited/ well known area and most of their cars still rely on safety drivers. If Waymo is around in 20 years their service might get to the small-ish city I live in.

The big thing I would want self-driving capabilities for is long cross country driving. A thing Waymo doesn’t offer even to people in it’s service area.

Tesla has hundreds of thousands of cars which range over the entire country and has driven millions of miles doing exactly the sort of self-driving I most care about.

The two barely overlap in terms of offerings so I’m not sure what the point of comparing them even is.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#120
post #110
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, the tremendous capital influx into AV could probably support advances in trains and rail infrastructure. Yet, we will chase after this idea — it receives copious media attention because it is technically challenging and is “sci-fi” idealism that is hard to mitigate and feels like a good idea for society. Also, the investments seem like chasing after what everyone else is chasing after (FOMO); an automaker would…

It seems to me that the problems that trains and rail infrastructure is facing are: bureaucracy, politics and an increasing inability to execute on infrastructure projects on time/budget by governments. To the extent cost is a a factor, it's unnecessarily high due to these aforementioned issues[1]. So I don't think money invested into self-driving cars hurts trains and rail infrastructure. [1]: https://www.vox.com/po…

Yes, the policy issues are real and sticky and act to thwart advance.
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