Nadella is a superb CEO, inarguably among the best of his generation. He believed in OpenAI when no one else did and deserves acclaim for this brilliant investment. But his "below them, above them, around them" quote on OpenAI may haunt him in 2025/2026. OAI or someone else will approach AGI-like capabilities (however nebulous the term), fostering the conditions to contest Microsoft's straitjacket. Of course, OAI is…
Even after breaking free, OAI must still contend with intense competition at multiple layers, including UI, application, infrastructure, and research. Moreover, it may need to battle skilled and powerful incumbents in the enterprise space to sustain revenue growth.
While the outcome remains highly uncertain, the progress since the board fiasco last year is incredible.