I love the image of the big straight pipe. However, it's worth noting that no market operates at perfect efficiency, and even in the big straight pipe there will be leaks. What's most interesting to me about this image of the future is where the arbitrage opportunities will be around the edges of the future pipe. Because they will certainly be there. You have to wonder what the aggressively ambitious entrepreneurial types will be doing once "tomorrow's startup" becomes equivalent to "today's college education and job."
The Future of Web Startups
101–110 of 173 posts
Re: The Future of Web Startups
#102"And being Google, they're figuring out how to do it efficiently." pg, I am a little alarmed by this flat recognition that is awarded to Google. It might be actually true. But its not an optimal way to think about things in the long run. As a teen ager I was a Michael Jackson fan, It took me a good while longer than other people to realize that he has turned into shit.
That's not a comment about how successful or cool Google may be, it's a comment about their management and corporate culture.
It's like saying "And being Wal-Mart, they're figuring out how to squeeze the last nickel out of their suppliers." It's just how they're interested in doing things.
Re: The Future of Web Startups
#103What about the fact that when an industry matures it tends to become an oligopoly. It almost happens with any industry in history (e.g. automotive). With maturity often comes standardization which in turn compliments big bureaucratic organizations.Will this also apply to the Web? What about the chances of startups in the automotive industry? They used to be good round 1900...
Some thoughts on costs: While it is cheap to get some system up and running in a world of lots of different apps and competitors that go after a limited number of users it will be vital to get attention in order to succeed. In the end this probably means spending loads of marketing money which is anything but not cheap.
Re: The Future of Web Startups
#104Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Will investors start being required to submit reports to the government to prove that their investment decisions aren't racially biased? Are you suggesting that investors should be racially biased? I'm playing devil's advocate far further than intended for sure, but the laws regarding employment, although bureaucratic are there for very good reasons.
I think he's suggesting that they could be accused of it. Startups are disproportionately started by men, most of whom are white or Asian. Paul Graham says not to blame on malice what you can attribute to math, but other people might not see it that way. "I'm playing devil's advocate far further than intended for sure, but the laws regarding employment, although bureaucratic are there for very good reasons." What is…
I'll take a stab at this. I recently read one of Milton Friedman's books, and I liked it a lot. His pursuit of freedom is admirable, and something that I can understand. He even suggests that freedom is more important than using government power to attempt to stop racism, for instance by letting people choose not to hire black people (as an example).
That got me to thinking though. While I'm attracted to the sentiment of freedom above all else, what I think is missing in his equation is that communities tend to be sort of self-reinforcing. It would be very difficult, if it were accepted by others to not hire black people, to be the first one to do so. Now, laws against that kind of discrimination don't change the way people feel, nor make their racist sentiments go away overnight. However, they do drive those thoughts underground, and break the cycle of "we've always done it that way" by making it no longer acceptable. And with time, that improves the climate and makes it easier for attitudes to change.
At least that's one thought that came to mind. I really admire Friedman's purity of thought, but think that perhaps it's a bit naive. It would certainly be an interesting subject to discuss in person with a person of that libertarian mindset.
Re: The Future of Web Startups
#105"Then the effects of being measured by performance would propagate all the way back to high school, flushing out all the arbitrary stuff people are measured by now. That is the future of web startups." What an impressive conclusion - I hope it happens.
That basic sentiment makes this one of my favorite essays by pg.
Re: The Future of Web Startups
#106What Paul ignores is the fact that most people out of college are faced with seemingly insurmountable debt as a result of having to pay for an education - esp. in America (and to a lesser extent in Canada). This is one problem that will prevent startups from happening at such a rapid pace as he anticipates. In fact, most graduates want to find stable jobs to pay off their debt -- startups are not really on most gradu…
From what I remember, college debt payments are not usually more than other expenses like food and rent. I'd bet they're rarely more than 30% of the expenditure of someone considering a startup, and thus shouldn't be a deciding factor.
Re: The Future of Web Startups
#107So much to think about. One niggling question I have is related to the definition of "start ups". I've heard and read varying opinions. Is a start up a new business with an idea to execute on the web or is a start up a company that executes an idea on the the web or is it both or neither? Depending on the definition of start up, there will be vastly different business models, challenges and economic opportunities.
The major difference between a business and a startup is that a startup is intended to scale extremely quickly.
That is probably inaccurate. A startup is a fledging business.
If you are instead saying that a big company is not designed to scale as fast as a small company/startup then that is perhaps inaccurate too, especially if you were to determine scaling as a function of headcount and/or revenue.
Re: The Future of Web Startups
#108What Paul ignores is the fact that most people out of college are faced with seemingly insurmountable debt as a result of having to pay for an education - esp. in America (and to a lesser extent in Canada). This is one problem that will prevent startups from happening at such a rapid pace as he anticipates. In fact, most graduates want to find stable jobs to pay off their debt -- startups are not really on most gradu…
I believe that more high-schoolers than before will evaluate an alternate option to college. It is these folks who will add strength to the startup numbers. The people who decide to get into college and pickup big debts have already made a decision of not wanting to do startups. Additionally,this debt seems insurmountable in the current scenario, but as things change loan financiers will factor in such changes and perhaps even build in options for doing a startup or allow for repayment to start much later than it currently does.
While Paul focuses on web based startups, I think this phenomenon will apply to more areas as technology enables individuals to create their own niche. This is already true for some sports and certain types of businesses.
Like you correctly mentioned, the debt problem is more pronounced for Americans and some other nationalities, most developing nations do not have this problem and their entrepreneurs will start startups especially in developed and lucrative markets such as the US. This inturn will force the US mechanism to adapt. This effect of globalization has already had effects in many other industries.
Re: The Future of Web Startups
#109Eye openning.
Re: The Future of Web Startups
#110Earlier quoted context omitted.
erm, because it seems off-topic here? this is paul's world. i like reading about the energy and creativity involved in web startups. i personally think that narrowing the field to just web startups is short-sighted, but that's not my call to make, certainly not here.
Web apps are probably the most common because the barrier to entry is very low, but the field really seems to be more "software" rather than "only web apps". Xobni is desktop software, Loopt is mobile software, Justin.tv is (as I understand it) a mix of hardware and web streaming. Interestingly, those also seem to be some of the higher profile projects.
well, that's certainly encouraging.
i'm personally more drawn to "real" software that runs on desktops and servers. web stuff is nice, but it doesn't fit the way i think as a programmer.