“Code was never the hard part” is an insult to all programmers

In my experience the only people who get paid "well" to just code up well defined JIRA tickets are new grads, and this is essentially a training period until they grow into leading complex and ambiguous projects independently. You can't hang out there more than a few years.

Most of the people who say LLMs will replace developers have never built and deployed a real app. I know someone working on an app that they were deploying and after "writing" thousands of lines of code with Codex, they needed help to deploy it despite getting pretty clear (IMO) instructions from the LLM. Later they were struggling to set up a test environment or add backups to the point that I was worried they might break production.

The few people who manage to write good quality production apps with AI are developers whether they like it or not and that number isn't high enough to obsolete existing developers.

To some degree the defense just popped up because it’s part of the AI effect, at least in my opinion: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_effect

As computing systems become increasingly capable and encroach in our territory that distinguishes us and lead to our success as a species, intelligence (whatever that is or isn’t), we redefine the problem and handwave away the new capabilities.

It’s getting increasingly more difficult to do that in knowledge domains with current frontier agentic systems. They’re not AGI, but they start to make it increasingly difficult to move the goal posts for many people’s comfort.

We really need a lot more philosophers, sociologists, and frankly economists working on this problem: in an era where physical needs were mechanized away and increasingly aspects of the knowledge economy are shifting away, what does it look like in modernity? How do we sustain or adapt our current economic models? What new models may be needed? Do we need to continue to enforce this whole work to survive in an environment where much work is disappearing or at the very least shifting around.

No, we’re not there yet. You still need experts to guide things around, but it’s becoming increasingly easier to do more in this space with less humans. That’s not a trivial change in the US where we put most our eggs in this whole knowledge economy basket.

Writing code to do a thing is easy.

Writing code that's logical and easy to follow, that can be extended in several likely dimensions without major plumbing work, and that doesn't contain "gotchas" for the maintainer, is not at all easy.

This is the kind of thing where everyone just talks past each other because "coding" can refer to a ton of different things. I think we've all had the experience of having to write large mechanical boilerplate or refractors which was definitely highly automatable coding. I think we've also all has the experience of being utterly dismayed at how hard it is to write certain logic, especially with LLM "assistance". I've spent the last couple days marveling at how consistently fable introduces race conditions into a complex state machine I'm maintaining. Coding can be hard, or easy sometimes