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USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

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Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#101

Post by SecretDreams »

maerF0x0 wrote: post #96
SecretDreams wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. Despite what others have said, yes. But, in general, because of the current global dynamics, fertilizer is more expensive wherever you're going to be getting it from. It just doesn't help that the US has picked a trade war with all allies at the same time, while also engaging in real wars that disrupt global supply chains of critical resources.

It shocks me when I realize it's only been 16/48 of his term. We still have 2/3rds to go.

Yes, the amount of change the world has experienced over the last 16/48 has been pretty dramatic. And the perception of the US external to he US has changed proportionally. I'd like to think the trend won't persist for the full 48, but I also did not expect quite so much in the first 16/48.

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#102

Post by maerF0x0 »

YesThatTom2 wrote: post #91

“Dictators stay in power until there are food riots” is what every sociologist I know tells me. I hope the “riots” are in the form of voting.

I've always wondered why we consider it ok when an illegitimate, unjust, or unhinged government uses violence, but not when people on the right side of history? Like yeah don't go smash up small businesses and murder innocent bystanders. But if Trump refuses to leave at the end of his term, I hope someone has the courage to use minimum required violence to remove him.

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#104

Post by burnerburner000 »

pragmatic wrote: post #92
mikey_p wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is anyone actually irrigating wheat?? Edit: I'm being downvoted because someone found a source that says 3% of winter wheat in Montana is irrigated. My point still stands, while yes some percentage of wheat is irrigated it is extremely uncommon.

No.

[dead]

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#105

Post by panflute »

bluGill wrote: post #35
embedding-shape wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> growers expanded plantings of soybeans A year ago China stopped buying soybeans from the US is seems ("China Bought $12.6 Billion in U.S. Soybeans Last Year. Now, It’s $0." - https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/business/china-soybean-sa... ), was that resumed, or who are all these new soybeans going to? Is it all for national use instead of export?

When China buys from someone else (Brazil - nobody else has significant soy bean surplus) that means whoever was buying from that someone else now needs to go to the US. The US also uses a lot of soy beans internally. Prices are down, but farmers are still selling soybeans and with careful management are making money.

I don't think international trade is so stable that any shift would imply equal and opposite shifts in trade. For example it looks like Brazil's production is up 5% while China's overall usage may be down 6%.

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#106

Post by BobaFloutist »

bluGill wrote: post #46
fullstop wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps someone in the industry can chime in, but I had read that the soybeans that the US primarily grows and previously sold to China were used for pig feed. In my mind I pictured it like "cow corn" -- humans technically can eat it, but it's chewy and not very good. Are there different grades of soybean?

There are different grades with different properties. However very few are consumed by humans. When sold for humans it is called edamame. The most common use is crush the beans, and collect the oil feeding the rest to pigs. If you read the ingredients at the grocery store, soy bean oil comes up a lot. Soy bean oil is also often used in diesel engines after processing.

You can also buy dry soy beans. They're not popular human food not because they taste bad or are hard to eat, but because they take so damn long to cook. However, stick them in an Instant Pot for an hour, and you can walk away while they cook.

They're mild, a little nutty, but also a little waxier in texture than most beans (similar to edamame in that way, but closer to other beans than edamame when they're cooked from dried).

I still haven't found a great use for them other than as a slightly weird substitute for other beans, because there's not a lot of recipes around for them (because they historically took like 3 hours to cook), but I personally enjoy them just fine.

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#107

Post by jeffbee »

wholinator2 wrote: post #83
bluGill wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Data centers don't use much water on the scale of things. The numbers look big in isolation, but most people have no idea how much water a country really needs and isolating the numbers makes data centers look bad.

But aren't they trying to build data centers outside of smaller localities, where they do exist somewhat in isolation? Water cannot just be transported thousands of miles, water itself exists in isolated pockets. Straining the water resources of towns is a problem! You can't just say "the US is big so if you look at the maximum possible widest numbers, it looks small". You have to look at the actual human impact. I t…

Water is a locally isolated resource, but again these guys aren't dumb. Nearly all of the water impacts from data centers that I have seen in the news are imaginary. Most actual large-scale facilities have been built in places where water is so abundant it constitutes a natural hazard. In other places, the data centers exist alongside other much larger water consumers, which in my mind tends to absolve them. For example, one of the most objectionable (IMHO) data center sites is Phoenix, but all of the data centers in the area use something like 1% of the water evaporated by the local nuclear power station, not to mention golf courses and agriculture, so it seems weird to complain about the data centers.

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#108

Post by tdb7893 »

mikey_p wrote: post #85
giantg2 wrote: post #2

It will only get worse for the next generation as the aquafers are continuing to be depleted.

Is anyone actually irrigating wheat?? Edit: I'm being downvoted because someone found a source that says 3% of winter wheat in Montana is irrigated. My point still stands, while yes some percentage of wheat is irrigated it is extremely uncommon.

It seems like most significant agriculture extension programs have advice for irrigating wheat, so presumably someone is doing it, even if it isn't common. If drought is reducing yields significantly I wonder if the amount is going to start growing.

E.g.

https://www.canr.msu.edu/news/considerations_for_raising_irr...

https://extensionpubs.unl.edu/publication/ec731/2009/pdf/vie...

https://ucanr.edu/blog/uc-small-grains-blog/article/irrigati...

https://www.canr.msu.edu/news/considerations_for_raising_irr...

https://waterquality.colostate.edu/documents/factsheets/0055...

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#109

Post by Joel_Mckay »

YesThatTom2 wrote: post #91

“Dictators stay in power until there are food riots” is what every sociologist I know tells me. I hope the “riots” are in the form of voting.

This book discuses why regimes are stable. Notably starving disconnected illiterate peoples rarely change things without military cooperation.

"The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics" (Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith)

https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Po...

The CGP Grey youtube short is an entertaining summary of the books subjects:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rStL7niR7gs

>in the form of voting.

The current US representatives were voted into, out-of, and back into power.

It is interesting, but will likely remain stable. =3

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#110

Post by FrustratedMonky »

jqpabc123 wrote: post #97
FrustratedMonky wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe a positive. Soy Beans are more healthy. So lower fertilizer demand, and healthier produce, could be a net positive. Kind of like an oil shortage is driving an increase in EVs and renewable energy. Finally waking up the US that oil dependence is a National Security issue that renewables are possible solution for. That renewables aren't the 'woke' enemy, but a valid technical option. So, maybe a net positive.

Finally waking up the US that oil dependence is a National Security issue Even worse, oil dependence is a competitive liability --- not an advantage. AI is energy intensive. And more expensive, carbon based based energy is a competitive disadvantage. A competitive disadvantage in AI is an economic issue --- which ultimately translates into a National Security issue. China leadership understands this. USA leadership i…

We're in an energy crunch, and Republicans think it is a good idea to cancel wind farms because they ruin the view.
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