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AI doesn't replace white collar work

marble.onl

101–110 of 110 posts

Re: AI doesn't replace white collar work

#101
post #100
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People still do press buttons, handle the few tasks still not available to robots, do maintenance as needed, it just happens they are now a fraction of what used to provide work to a whole village.

You are likely living in a bubble if you actually think this. Less than 2 billion people in the world have used AI chatbots, let alone frontier AI models of any kind. I much prefer the bicycle analogy for AI, its just a force multiplier.

Of course I think this, otherwise I would not have written it, I also have seen people lose their bycicles and now wondering what they will do next to keep their mind sane.

Re: AI doesn't replace white collar work

#102
post #6

It certainly replaced a couple of white collars that used to do translations and asset creations for CMS, in some projects that I am aware of.

Yeah my job is currently protected due to being clearance work but if we could use AI to its fullest extent we would certainly have too many employees. Perhaps the scope will just increase but until then I see people getting laid off. Obviously in the long run this is good, more productivity per employee is always better, but short term jobs are changing and people are likely getting laid off (or will at least have m…

Clearance jobs will be some of the highest targets for automation. For one, the US government has already shown a willingness to work with AI companies in the most sensitive fields. Also, sandboxing is getting to the point where if you know what you're doing it's no more risky than relying on another human. The obvious benefit of not needing to worry about an LLM being a Chinese spy is just too good to not optimize.

Re: AI doesn't replace white collar work

#103
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fallacy is to believe there is still a place for everyone.

If only someone could invent some kind of educational institution to teach people new skills! People could learn things and join the workforce! /s

> If only someone could invent some kind of educational institution to teach people new skills!

> People could learn things and join the workforce!

> /s

The point is to always, always blame the individuals being harmed for the structural problems they face.

Lost your job? Well fuck you if you can't afford to pay a lot of money to go back to school for years and support your family out of savings in the mean time. It's your own damn fault for not being rich enough.

Re: AI doesn't replace white collar work

#104
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fallacy is to believe there is still a place for everyone.

If only someone could invent some kind of educational institution to teach people new skills! People could learn things and join the workforce! /s

When I grow up, I'm going to Bovine University!

Re: AI doesn't replace white collar work

#105
The capability vs adoption gap is the real story. Anthropic's data shows LLMs can theoretically handle 94% of computer and math tasks but actual usage is around 33%. Entry-level hiring has slowed most in exposed roles. Not because AI is already doing those jobs, but because companies stopped hiring while they wait and see.

Re: AI doesn't replace white collar work

#106
post #26
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

agreed with that take it is not direct replacement, at present, but rather job market shrinkage in sectors where AI can get more work done

This feels very much like a distinction without a difference to me.

you are prob right, it is still job replacement, the underlying mechanism is secondary/irrelevant..

Re: AI doesn't replace white collar work

#107
post #18

It's the same error pattern every time: identify what AI is currently "bad" at, define that as the essential core of the work, declare the work safe. Wait 6 months, shocked Pikachu gif.

> ... Just that it doesn’t replace the social, human, and relationship based aspects of work, whether this is trust, or just being interested in what someone else says.

Yeah I also don't buy this. Most white collar work _seemingly_ necessitates trust, social/human aspects, etc. because we _have_ to interact with other humans, and the way we interact with each other is lossy and often has misaligned or not explicitly stated motivations.

In other words, most white collar work _seems_ bottlenecked on people-centric things because we have imperfect information about what other people want, so we have to use soft skills (i.e, skills only real humans have) to actually figure out motivations of various stakeholders and align expectations, garner favor, etc. amongst all of them. In a world where most of the workforce is AI, I think this problem of tacit information gets largely solved, since AIs can in theory, convey their intent and losslessly send information to one another without the need to waste time "aligning."

The other thing that people argue, especially in software, is that architecture and tradeoff decisions will remain in the human realm, because apparently only people have the "taste" to pick and chose the right solutions. I also think that:

(1) this will be easily solved by AI/current LLMs, since logically there shouldn't be a big difference between designing and writing good code to designing good systems architecture, and LLMs are ostensibly already good at coding

(2) "taste" and "tradeoffs" are things that, if you had more information (once again, if you could convey most or all necessary information losslessly between everyone in your org), things that appeared to be "tradeoffs" before might just be binary solutions.

Also just practically speaking, the stated goal of AI companies is to automate all labor. They won't just sit back happily collecting checks if there are parts of the human parts of the economy which they can't automate, that's revenue that they could easily capture. Whatever people claim AI lacks today will just be added to it in 6 months, AI companies are strongly incentivized to work towards this.

And at the end of the day, work is a transaction between employees and employers. A company's primary purpose is to generate money for shareholders, and human labor is just how it gets done. It doesn't matter if I _want_ to talk to a nice coworker instead of Claude 4.6 opus. If Claude costs less than my nice worker and has the same or better output, the company will happily replace that coworker with Claude because its strictly beneficial for the company.

Re: AI doesn't replace white collar work

#108

Just to throw out the counterargument here. The way AI replaces work is in that there is an enormous ROI to work with fewer (and smarter) people. Those social interactions are a big part of work, but they are only very rarely "the work", and they cost time. In the cases that they are required; they seem to cluster and the ROI of fewer social synchronization problems increases even more. But that might all be wrong. I…

I agree. I think most companies would be better off being 100% AI driven since synchronization problems for agents (or whatever the fad will be) is likely much lower than human social synchronization, and has more rich information transfer between "workers" (so less ambiguity, less tradeoffs to be made, etc).

As soon as a person enters the loop you add a manual sync point that probably doesn't need to be there. I think this is why you are increasingly seeing companies tell their people to be "on the loop" or "out of the loop" with their AI. The less syncing with a person, the better. And I think once this experiment runs its course, we will probably find out that human social interaction matters much less than we thought it did, especially for super transactional things like a corporate job where most of your work is done on a computer.

Re: AI doesn't replace white collar work

#109

The fact that most of these "everything will be fine because we still need some humans in the loop" arguments never really talk about is that AI doesn't need to replace literally every white collar job to cause massive economic damage. The unemployment rate during the peak of the Great Depression was 25%, not 100%.

It will probably be a lot worse since white collar workers (especially the ones that AI is targeting, like banking, software, etc since they are super high margin jobs to automate) traditionally make and spend more than the average worker.

These are the people getting mortgages and sending kids to private school and whatnot. If their spending power suddenly drops to 0, its probably going to be pretty bad. I wonder what the housing market would look like in these cases.

Re: AI doesn't replace white collar work

#110
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. All of these foundation concepts are vocabulary. We need vocabulary in order to understand and have reasonable conversations. Do you need to be an expert? Probably not .. but yes, we should all understand. I think we'll develop personal moats automatically. Some people don't are naturally uninquisitive. They'll be most at risk.

no they don't need vocabulary, i can vibe code my SQL. for real though, what's the point learning it now for analytics? absolutely none.

Similar point to learning how to capitalise in a sentence.

And learning what analytics actually means (it's not the same as debugging).

Learn how to communicate.

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