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IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

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Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#101

Post by Octoth0rpe »

trollbridge wrote: post #52
Octoth0rpe wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, assuming the power cost reduction or capability increase justifies the expenditure. It's not clear that that will be the case. That's one of the shaky assumptions I'm referring to. It may be that the 2030 nvidia accelerators will save you $2000 in electricity per month per rack, and you can upgrade the whole rack for the low, low price of $800,000! That may not be worth it at all. If it saves you $200k/per rack…

A typical data centre is $2,500 per year per kW load (including overhead, hvac and so on). If it costs $800,000 to replace the whole rack, then that would pay off in a year if it reduces 320 kW of consumption. Back when we ran servers, we wouldn't assume 100% utilisation but AI workloads do do that; normal server loads would be 10kW per rack and AI is closer to 100. So yeah, it's not hard to imagine power savings of…

Thanks for the numbers! Isn't it more likely that the amount of power/heat generated per rack will stay constant over each upgrade cycle, and the upgrade simply unlocks a higher amount of service revenue per rack?

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#102

Post by saulpw »

reactordev wrote: post #76
scroot wrote: post #24

As an elder millennial, I just don't know what to say. That a once in a generation allocation of capital should go towards...whatever this all will be, is certainly tragic given current state of the world and its problems. Can't help but see it as the latest in a lifelong series of baffling high stakes decisions of dubious social benefit that have necessarily global consequences.

I threw in the towel in April. It's clear we are Wile E. Coyote running in the air already past the cliff and we haven't fallen yet.

What does it mean to throw in the towel, in your case? Divesting from the stock market? Moving to a hobby farm? Giving up on humanity?

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#103

Post by LightBug1 »

newfriend wrote: post #51
ayaros wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm a younger millennial. I'm always seeing homeless people in my city and it's an issue that I think about on a daily basis. Couldn't we have spent the money on homeless shelters and food and other things? So many people are in poverty, they can't afford basic necessities. The world is shitty. Yes, I know it's all capital from VC firms and investment firms and other private sources , but it's still capital . It shou…

Technological advancement is what has pulled billions of people out of poverty. Giving handouts to layabouts isn't an ideal allocation of resources if we want to progress as a civilization.

It's not unthinkable that one of those "layabouts" could have been the next Steve Jobs under different circumstances ...

People are our first, best resource. Closely followed by technology. You've lost sight of that.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#104

Post by verdverm »

scarmig wrote: post #20
nabla9 wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone should read his argument carefully. Ponder them in silence and accept or reject them in based on the strength of the arguments.

His argument follows almost directly, and trivially, from his central premise: a 0% or 1% chance of reaching AGI. Yeah, if you assume technology will stagnate over the next decade and AGI is essentially impossible, these investments will not be profitable. Sam Altman himself wouldn't dispute that. But it's a controversial premise, and one that there's no particular reason to think that the... CEO of IBM would have an…

we don't need AGI to use all that compute

we need businesses who are willing to pay for ai / compute at prices where both sides are making money

I for one could 10x my AI usage if the results on my side pan out. Spending $100 on ai today has ROI, will 10x that still have ROI for me in a couple years? probably, I expect agentic teams to increase in capability and more of my work. Then the question is can I turn that increase productivity into more revenues (>$1000 / month, one more client would cover this and then some)

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#105

Post by _DeadFred_ »

newfriend wrote: post #51
ayaros wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm a younger millennial. I'm always seeing homeless people in my city and it's an issue that I think about on a daily basis. Couldn't we have spent the money on homeless shelters and food and other things? So many people are in poverty, they can't afford basic necessities. The world is shitty. Yes, I know it's all capital from VC firms and investment firms and other private sources , but it's still capital . It shou…

Technological advancement is what has pulled billions of people out of poverty. Giving handouts to layabouts isn't an ideal allocation of resources if we want to progress as a civilization.

In the USA cowboys were homeless guys. You know that right? Like they had no home, slept outside. Many were pretty big layabouts. Yet they are pretty big part of our foundation myth and we don't say 'man they just should have died'.

Can I go be a cowboy? Can I just go sleep outside? maybe work a few minimal paying cattle run jobs a year? No? If society won't allow me to just exist outside, then society has an obligation to make sure I have a place to lay my head.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#106

Post by jstummbillig »

scroot wrote: post #24

As an elder millennial, I just don't know what to say. That a once in a generation allocation of capital should go towards...whatever this all will be, is certainly tragic given current state of the world and its problems. Can't help but see it as the latest in a lifelong series of baffling high stakes decisions of dubious social benefit that have necessarily global consequences.

I don't know what to do with this take.

We need an order of magnitude more clean productivity in the world so that everyone can live a life that is at least as good as what fairly normal people in the west currently enjoy.

Anyone who think this can be fixed with current Musk money is simply not getting it: If we liquidated all of that, that would buy a dinner for everyone in the world (and then, of course, that would be it, because the companies that he owns would stop functioning).

We are simply, obviously, not good enough at producing stuff in a sustainable way (or: at all) and we owe it to every human being alive to take every chance to make this happen QUICKLY, because we are paying with extremely shitty humans years, and they are not ours.

Bring on the AI, and let's make it work for everyone – and, believe me, if this is not to be to the benefit of roughly everyone, I am ready to fuck shit up. But if the past is any indication, we are okay at improving the lives of everyone when productivity increases. I don't know why this time would be any different.

If the way to make good lives for all 8 billions of us must lead to more Musks because, apparently, we are too dumb to do collectivization in any sensible way, I really don't care.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#107

Post by mbreese »

arisAlexis wrote: post #66
mbreese wrote: post #62

I would add an addendum to this -- there is no way the announced spending on AI data centers will all come to fruition. I have no doubt that there will be a massive build-out of infrastructure, but it can't reach the levels that have been announced. The power requirements alone will stop that from happening.

[flagged]

I believe there is a difference between what people say publicly and what they are actually committed to doing on the ground. When all is said and done, I'll be more interested to know what was actually spent.

For example, XYZ AI company may say they are going to spend $1T for AI data centers over the next 5 years.

In actuality, I suspect it is likely that they have committed to something like $5-10B in shovel-ready projects with stretch goals for the rest. And the remaining spend would be heavily conditioned -- is power available? are chips available? is the public support present? financing? etc...

Not to mention, it's a much bigger moat if you can claim you're going to spend $1T. Who else will want to compete with you when you're spending $1T. After the dust has settled and you've managed to be one of the 2-3 dominant AI players, who is going to care that you "only" spent $100B instead of $1T. Look -- you were very capital efficient!

So, do I see it as possible that XYZ AI company could spend $1T, sure. Is it likely? No.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#108

Post by phkahler »

amanaplanacanal wrote: post #42
PrairieFire wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

agree the capital could be put to better use, however I believe the alternative is this capital wouldn't have otherwise been put to work in ways that allow it to leak to the populace at large. for some of the big investors in AI infrastructure, this is cash that was previously and likely would have otherwise been put toward stock buybacks. for many of the big investors pumping cash in, these are funds deploying the w…

It could have, though. Higher taxes on the rich, spend it on social programs.

Let's pay down the debt before increasing social programs. You know, save the country first. If a penny saved is a penny earned then everyone -rich or poor- is looking for a handout.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#109

Post by _DeadFred_ »

QuercusMax wrote: post #87
newfriend wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US already provides significant aid to those in poverty, especially children. We don't need to stifle innovation to reach some level of aid that bleeding hearts deem sufficient.

Do you really think that building giant datacenters full of accelerators that will never be used is "innovation"?

We need excess capacity for when the next 'rip off anime artist XYZ' fad hits. If we didn't do that, we would be failing capitalism and all the people of history who contributed to our technological progress.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#110

Post by coliveira »

myaccountonhn wrote: post #17

> In an October letter to the White House's Office of Science and Technology Policy, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman recommended that the US add 100 gigawatts in energy capacity every year. > Krishna also referenced the depreciation of the AI chips inside data centers as another factor: "You've got to use it all in five years because at that point, you've got to throw it away and refill it," he said. And people think the clima…

Scam Altman wants the US to build a lot of energy plants so that the country will pay the costs and OpenAI will have the profits of using this cheap energy.
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