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IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

businessinsider.com

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Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#41

Post by irilesscent »

criddell wrote: post #23

> But AGI will require "more technologies than the current LLM path," Krisha said. He proposed fusing hard knowledge with LLMs as a possible future path. And then what? These always read a little like the underpants gnomes business model (1. Collect underpants, 2. ???, 3. Profit). It seems to me that the AGI business models require one company has exclusive access to an AGI model. The reality is that it will likely s…

AGI has value in automation and optimisation which increase profit margins.When AGI is everywhere, then the game is who has the smartest agi, who can offer it cheapest, who can specialise it for my niche etc. Also in this context agi need to run somewhere and IBM stands to benefit from running other peoples models.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#42

Post by amanaplanacanal »

PrairieFire wrote: post #34
scroot wrote: post #24

As an elder millennial, I just don't know what to say. That a once in a generation allocation of capital should go towards...whatever this all will be, is certainly tragic given current state of the world and its problems. Can't help but see it as the latest in a lifelong series of baffling high stakes decisions of dubious social benefit that have necessarily global consequences.

agree the capital could be put to better use, however I believe the alternative is this capital wouldn't have otherwise been put to work in ways that allow it to leak to the populace at large. for some of the big investors in AI infrastructure, this is cash that was previously and likely would have otherwise been put toward stock buybacks. for many of the big investors pumping cash in, these are funds deploying the w…

It could have, though. Higher taxes on the rich, spend it on social programs.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#43

Post by eitally »

At some point, I wonder if any of the big guys have considered becoming grid operators. The vision Google had for community fiber (Google Fiber, which mostly fizzled out due to regulatory hurdles) could be somewhat paralleled with the idea of operating a regional electrical grid.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#44

Post by devmor »

I suppose it depends on your definition of "pay off".

It will pay off for the people investing in it, when the US government inevitably bails them out. There is a reason Zuckerberg, Huang, etc are so keen on attending White House dinners.

It certainly wont pay off for the American public.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#45

Post by zppln »

beachy wrote: post #27
Octoth0rpe wrote: post #18

> Krishna also referenced the depreciation of the AI chips inside data centers as another factor: "You've got to use it all in five years because at that point, you've got to throw it away and refill it," he said This doesn't seem correct to me, or at least is built on several shaky assumptions. One would have to 'refill' your hardware if: - AI accelerator cards all start dying around the 5 year mark, which is possib…

It's just the same dynamic as old servers. They still work fine but power costs make them uneconomical compared to latest tech.

I'm a little bit curious about this. Where do all the hardware from the big tech giants usually go once they've upgraded?

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#47

Post by wmf »

zppln wrote: post #45
beachy wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's just the same dynamic as old servers. They still work fine but power costs make them uneconomical compared to latest tech.

I'm a little bit curious about this. Where do all the hardware from the big tech giants usually go once they've upgraded?

Some is sold on the used market; some is destroyed. There are plenty of used V100 and A100 available now for example.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#48

Post by ayaros »

amanaplanacanal wrote: post #42
PrairieFire wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

agree the capital could be put to better use, however I believe the alternative is this capital wouldn't have otherwise been put to work in ways that allow it to leak to the populace at large. for some of the big investors in AI infrastructure, this is cash that was previously and likely would have otherwise been put toward stock buybacks. for many of the big investors pumping cash in, these are funds deploying the w…

It could have, though. Higher taxes on the rich, spend it on social programs.

Why is this so horrible. Put more resources in the hands of the average person. They will get pumped right back into the economy. If people have money to spend, they can buy more things, including goods and services from gigantic tax-dodging mega-corporations.

Gigantic mega-corporations do enjoy increased growth and higher sales, don't they? Or am I mistaken?

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#49

Post by trollbridge »

zppln wrote: post #45
beachy wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's just the same dynamic as old servers. They still work fine but power costs make them uneconomical compared to latest tech.

I'm a little bit curious about this. Where do all the hardware from the big tech giants usually go once they've upgraded?

I used (relatively) ancient servers (5-10 years in age) because their performance is completely adequate; they just use slightly more power. As a plus it's easy to buy spare parts, and they run on DDR3, so I'm not paying the current "RAM tax". I generally get such a server, max out its RAM, max out its CPUs and put it to work.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#50

Post by wmf »

criddell wrote: post #23

> But AGI will require "more technologies than the current LLM path," Krisha said. He proposed fusing hard knowledge with LLMs as a possible future path. And then what? These always read a little like the underpants gnomes business model (1. Collect underpants, 2. ???, 3. Profit). It seems to me that the AGI business models require one company has exclusive access to an AGI model. The reality is that it will likely s…

Inference has significant marginal cost so AGI's profit margins might get competed down but it won't be free.
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