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Nobody’s buying homes, nobody’s switching jobs, America’s mobility is stalling

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Re: Nobody’s buying homes, nobody’s switching jobs, America’s mobility is stalling

#101

Post by klipklop »

klooney wrote: post #74
toomuchtodo wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think we’re ever going to build houses again at the rate we did before the 2008 GFC. A substantial portion of people who work in construction are undocumented (and will be targeted for deportation by this admin for the remains of their term), zoning remains a challenge, cost of materials continues to inflate. How many years would it take to get back up to speed? 5? 10? What does the economy look like then? Wi…

Supply and demand for labor will work itself out- prices will go up, companies will invest in efficiency, etc. People just need time to figure out the details, and the legal right to do the job.

Can people wait multiple decades for this to sort out? People without housing they can afford need it immediately.

There are going to be losers in this. No avoiding it.

Re: Nobody’s buying homes, nobody’s switching jobs, America’s mobility is stalling

#102

Post by nunez »

mingus88 wrote: post #54
Dig1t wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are many places in the US where you can buy a house for less than 50k. If you want prices to drop in popular areas then we have to make it easy for people to actually build houses and increase supply in popular areas. Of course giving homeowners a say about whether housing is allowed to be built near them, of course they are going to vote against it because they have an incentive to keep prices high.

I think it’s natural for homeowners to be resistant to new builds in the same way office workers hated the move to cubicles. I was in the Midwest recently and it was wild to see a block of high density houses in the middle of farmland. Houses that look exactly the same, shoved onto tiny lots with little gap between them, and surrounded by miles of corn. These are obviously attractive to developers as they are maximiz…

They were probably 50 mi or so away from a large city, which is within "commuting" distance.

Re: Nobody’s buying homes, nobody’s switching jobs, America’s mobility is stalling

#103

Post by nunez »

Esophagus4 wrote: post #4
petra303 wrote: post #3

Why get out of a 3-4% loan just to get into a 7-8% loan?

I think if you believed 7-8% loans were normal, you might be more likely to bite the bullet and make your move. But if you believe 3-4% is normal, then you’re probably waiting for rates to return to “normal.” I think it’s a side effect of years of low interest rates… people are conditioned now to believe low is normal, and they want to hang on until we get back to that. I was hoping rates would stay “high” for a whil…

I expressly waited for interest rates to jump before we bought ours. Buying couldn't have been easier because of that.

Re: Nobody’s buying homes, nobody’s switching jobs, America’s mobility is stalling

#104

Post by yetihehe »

lovich wrote: post #94
danans wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd caution from reading too much into numbers like this. 400 applications is borderline spamming, putting quantity over quality, which employers would notice. It can be far fewer if you have a focus/specialty and specific industries that you target. No doubt though, it's a slog right now. My recent process was around 10 applications - which became 3 interviews - and the last 2 were offers, one that came via a recrui…

It would be difficult for employers to notice since they are also spamming job postings en masse

And after auto-rejecting one hundred people because of faulty filters they say "Why are there no good candidates?".

Re: Nobody’s buying homes, nobody’s switching jobs, America’s mobility is stalling

#105

Post by [deleted] »

charlie0 wrote: post #39
bobthepanda wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, and in a world where every home is priced this way it’s not like you could go to an alternative housing market.

Of course you can, digital nomads have been geoarbitraging for a long time.

[deleted]

Re: Nobody’s buying homes, nobody’s switching jobs, America’s mobility is stalling

#106

Post by bravetraveler »

charlie0 wrote: post #39
bobthepanda wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, and in a world where every home is priced this way it’s not like you could go to an alternative housing market.

Of course you can, digital nomads have been geoarbitraging for a long time.

Truly upsetting that what was a joke is now my best plan: van, river.

Absolutely zero interest in sharing walls with people again... or participating in building the next Company City. Bidding against colleagues is enough to make the bosses laugh.

So, behave like a dragon. Hoard coins and, eventually/occasionally, fly. Maybe burn some stuff.

Re: Nobody’s buying homes, nobody’s switching jobs, America’s mobility is stalling

#107

Post by aaron695 »

chao- wrote: post #30

It is difficult to balance the competing priorities of "home ownership is widely affordable" and "home prices must always go up". When the balance is not broadly possible, our system seems to favor "home prices must always go up", at least in the short term.

[dead]

Re: Nobody’s buying homes, nobody’s switching jobs, America’s mobility is stalling

#109

Post by saelthavron »

danans wrote: post #78
tennisflyi wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good luck. Reddit job hunting(?) sub has it pegged at ~400 applications, IIRC

I'd caution from reading too much into numbers like this. 400 applications is borderline spamming, putting quantity over quality, which employers would notice. It can be far fewer if you have a focus/specialty and specific industries that you target. No doubt though, it's a slog right now. My recent process was around 10 applications - which became 3 interviews - and the last 2 were offers, one that came via a recrui…

Being deliberate hasn't helped me. Hell, I've learned quite a bit about this one company. In my last interview, I asked a question that surprised the interviewers. It was about something they had yet to start work on which came up in another interview for a different position which I had already been rejected for. They still rejected me. At this point, I'm guessing I'm black-balled.

Re: Nobody’s buying homes, nobody’s switching jobs, America’s mobility is stalling

#110

Post by anal_reactor »

Unprecedented mobility allowed unprecedented competition. The core of the problem is that when there's a job posting or a house for sale, you're competing not only with people in your local area, but also with people from all over the world. For example, in my city HALF of home sales are to foreigners. The effect is that top x% keeps amassing wealth, while the rest suffers from brain drain and depopulation. Literally same problem as Tinder - it promised men to date all over the world, in effect it made them compete with other men from all over the world, and nobody's getting dates.

The problem will fix itself when moving to a big city completely stops being a viable option, and average Joe will be forced to live in bumfuck nowhere. Once enough Joes stay in bumfuck nowhere, they'll eventually build a working small-scale local economy.

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