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Nobody’s buying homes, nobody’s switching jobs, America’s mobility is stalling

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Re: Nobody’s buying homes, nobody’s switching jobs, America’s mobility is stalling

#41

Post by hibikir »

Esophagus4 wrote: post #4
petra303 wrote: post #3

Why get out of a 3-4% loan just to get into a 7-8% loan?

I think if you believed 7-8% loans were normal, you might be more likely to bite the bullet and make your move. But if you believe 3-4% is normal, then you’re probably waiting for rates to return to “normal.” I think it’s a side effect of years of low interest rates… people are conditioned now to believe low is normal, and they want to hang on until we get back to that. I was hoping rates would stay “high” for a whil…

It's the other way around. If you think 3% is normal, you buy now and refinance while people think that the house is unaffordable. Remember that lower interest rates make home prices go even higher!

If you think it will stay at 7%, that 3% loan you already have is a treasure to keep using for a decade or two.

Re: Nobody’s buying homes, nobody’s switching jobs, America’s mobility is stalling

#42

Post by sszz »

chao- wrote: post #26
JackMorgan wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're heading further into a reality where there just aren't enough jobs. All the money has been hoovered into the stock market. There's just not enough floating around to pay people, it's all going into LLM electricity or graphics cards. We should be living in a time of ease, where the whole planet is sustained with all of us only working a few hours a week. Instead most people are fighting for scraps barely able to…

EDIT: I wrote this in a rush intending to refer to general market entry. In a broad sense, what I ended up writing is incorrect. To preserve the accuracy of the comment history I will not remove my mistake. > All the money has been hoovered into the stock market. I think you might misunderstand what the stock market is. Or perhaps you misunderstand what what stocks are? When you purchase stock, it doesn't get locked…

This is not how stocks work at all outside of stock offerings…

Re: Nobody’s buying homes, nobody’s switching jobs, America’s mobility is stalling

#43

Post by toomuchtodo »

simpaticoder wrote: post #13
JackMorgan wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're heading further into a reality where there just aren't enough jobs. All the money has been hoovered into the stock market. There's just not enough floating around to pay people, it's all going into LLM electricity or graphics cards. We should be living in a time of ease, where the whole planet is sustained with all of us only working a few hours a week. Instead most people are fighting for scraps barely able to…

Wouldn't it be nice if individuals decided at the start of their career how much money was "enough" for them, and made a pledge to retire once they hit that number. Then society can give them an "I won!" hat or gold card or something, and the next guy can take the role. In this way all enterprises become an engine pulling new hires off the street, and emitting independently wealthy people to go and enjoy their lives.…

The drive to become that wealthy and powerful does not turn off. It’s a similar failure mode as a meth addict stripping a substation for copper. Neither persona can help themselves.

> It's funny that our bodies have stomachs, so we know when we've eaten "enough".

Humorously on topic, GLP-1s patch the reward center in your brain and say “enough is enough.” If only there was a similar protocol for wealth and power.

Re: Nobody’s buying homes, nobody’s switching jobs, America’s mobility is stalling

#44

Post by daedrdev »

It's basically illegal to build dense homes in most cities. And despite what people say, the vacancy rate is at historic lows so its not just "people are keeping them empty"

Its a disgrace that people deny the supply crunch we are in

Re: Nobody’s buying homes, nobody’s switching jobs, America’s mobility is stalling

#45

Post by Dig1t »

chao- wrote: post #30

It is difficult to balance the competing priorities of "home ownership is widely affordable" and "home prices must always go up". When the balance is not broadly possible, our system seems to favor "home prices must always go up", at least in the short term.

There are many places in the US where you can buy a house for less than 50k.

If you want prices to drop in popular areas then we have to make it easy for people to actually build houses and increase supply in popular areas. Of course giving homeowners a say about whether housing is allowed to be built near them, of course they are going to vote against it because they have an incentive to keep prices high.

Re: Nobody’s buying homes, nobody’s switching jobs, America’s mobility is stalling

#46

Post by chao- »

sszz wrote: post #42
chao- wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EDIT: I wrote this in a rush intending to refer to general market entry. In a broad sense, what I ended up writing is incorrect. To preserve the accuracy of the comment history I will not remove my mistake. > All the money has been hoovered into the stock market. I think you might misunderstand what the stock market is. Or perhaps you misunderstand what what stocks are? When you purchase stock, it doesn't get locked…

This is not how stocks work at all outside of stock offerings…

Yes, I was intending to discuss stock offerings. They are just another form of financing. One of many.

I incorrectly explained what I meant, and broadly speaking, what I wrote is incorrect.

However, I stand by my statement that "all" of the money is not going to electricity or AI silicon.

Re: Nobody’s buying homes, nobody’s switching jobs, America’s mobility is stalling

#47

Post by Uvix »

charlie0 wrote: post #34
sidewndr46 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'd have to have some guarantee that the government would never alter the amount of inflation they create for that to be reasonable

No one can guarantee that but if you place your dollars into assets, those assets will inflate.

Except when they don't, like Japan's stock market from 1989-2024.

Re: Nobody’s buying homes, nobody’s switching jobs, America’s mobility is stalling

#48

Post by toomuchtodo »

willis936 wrote: post #23
toomuchtodo wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Real estate market will soften as the economy comes off the rails [1]. 6-12 months from now should have more motivated sellers depending on market (foreclosures in Clark County Las Vegas market are up 32% year over year June 2025, for example [2]). Short sales and foreclosure auctions are also options. If you still want to buy down the road, be in the strongest financial position possible to get financing and make an…

The housing market won't soften until we build a shit ton of houses which will never happen until there are a lot of very angry people willing it into existence.

I don’t think we’re ever going to build houses again at the rate we did before the 2008 GFC. A substantial portion of people who work in construction are undocumented (and will be targeted for deportation by this admin for the remains of their term), zoning remains a challenge, cost of materials continues to inflate. How many years would it take to get back up to speed? 5? 10? What does the economy look like then? Will enough young folks go into the necessary trades to meet the demand for this labor? We might keep building along at the anemic pace of today, but I argue we’ll never build again at the rate we did pre GFC.

https://eyeonhousing.org/2020/01/a-decade-of-home-building-t...

https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/its-the-land-stupid-how-t...

Re: Nobody’s buying homes, nobody’s switching jobs, America’s mobility is stalling

#49

Post by BobbyTables2 »

FiatLuxDave wrote: post #36
toomuchtodo wrote: post #2

There aren’t enough homes or jobs. What do?

As far as I can tell, the problem isn't so much a lack of jobs or a lack of homes but rather that they aren't in the same place. In small town America, the problem isn't a lack of housing stock, it's that it is hard to afford it with few good paying jobs. In big city America, the problem isn't lack of jobs, it's that it is hard to find a job which pays enough for you to afford the limited housing stock. I think this…

Always hated how every startup sets up office in downtown San Francisco or similarly absurd cost of living area…

Could pay people well but half as much and have nice office in Colorado mountains, Vermont, or somewhere else beautiful…

Of course, startups rarely seem interested in saving money…

Re: Nobody’s buying homes, nobody’s switching jobs, America’s mobility is stalling

#50

Post by [deleted] »

charlie0 wrote: post #39
bobthepanda wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, and in a world where every home is priced this way it’s not like you could go to an alternative housing market.

Of course you can, digital nomads have been geoarbitraging for a long time.

[deleted]
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