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Stocks trampled as Nikkei crashes 13%

reuters.com

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Re: Stocks trampled as Nikkei crashes 13%

#101

Post by dgfitz »

koonsolo wrote: post #99
somenameforme wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1989 was picked as it was the peak of the Japanese economy, the point from which people thought the economy could only continue to grow even larger, because that's what it'd always done - basically the same sort of stuff you're espousing here. But of course that's not what happened - anybody who invested at that time (or in many years around) would have seen nothing but losses over the decades to come. The end date w…

1989 until 2023 gives a 8.765% positive return with inflation.

If I understand your numbers correctly, that’s like, ~0.25% a year. Is that accurate?

Re: Stocks trampled as Nikkei crashes 13%

#102

Post by somenameforme »

koonsolo wrote: post #99
somenameforme wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1989 was picked as it was the peak of the Japanese economy, the point from which people thought the economy could only continue to grow even larger, because that's what it'd always done - basically the same sort of stuff you're espousing here. But of course that's not what happened - anybody who invested at that time (or in many years around) would have seen nothing but losses over the decades to come. The end date w…

1989 until 2023 gives a 8.765% positive return with inflation.

I was going from December, as per my earlier comment. In any case, if we're engaging in good faith then of course even 8.8% after near to 40 years is not what people mean when they talk about the market being a stable investment. The comment that started our little thread said,

---

It’s a shame, as ETFs, and hell, index funds if you must, outperform savings on a 3 year or even less horizon.

Yes, my portfolio dropped 7% this month. I’m still up 6% YTD and 13% in the last 12 months.

My horizon is well over 5 years. It would be an easy way to slow or even reduce my net worth if I were to put it all in a savings account.

---

He's clearly still expecting reasonable returns on mid-range time frames, which is what people mean when suggesting the market always goes up - not an annualized 0.25%, let alone loss, for the next 40 years.

Re: Stocks trampled as Nikkei crashes 13%

#103

Post by hoxmark »

drsim wrote: post #6

It’s scary headlines like this: ‘trampled’, ‘crashes’, that put off less informed, risk averse individuals on lower incomes/ net worth, from investing in stocks. It’s a shame, as ETFs, and hell, index funds if you must, outperform savings on a 3 year or even less horizon. Yes, my portfolio dropped 7% this month. I’m still up 6% YTD and 13% in the last 12 months. My horizon is well over 5 years. It would be an easy wa…

yeah - especially when you see it pop back up today.

Re: Stocks trampled as Nikkei crashes 13%

#105

Post by [deleted] »

somenameforme wrote: post #98
koonsolo wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So don't invest in 1989 and sell in 2013, any other time is more than fine. Did you deliberatly pick those dates? I think so. Here is the chart: https://www.nikkei.co.jp/nikkeiinfo/en/global_services/nikke... Let me pick the dates then: 2013 to 2023, annualized return inflation adjusted: 10%

1989 was picked as it was the peak of the Japanese economy, the point from which people thought the economy could only continue to grow even larger, because that's what it'd always done - basically the same sort of stuff you're espousing here. But of course that's not what happened - anybody who invested at that time (or in many years around) would have seen nothing but losses over the decades to come. The end date w…

[deleted]

Re: Stocks trampled as Nikkei crashes 13%

#106

Post by Have7878forever »

drsim wrote: post #6

It’s scary headlines like this: ‘trampled’, ‘crashes’, that put off less informed, risk averse individuals on lower incomes/ net worth, from investing in stocks. It’s a shame, as ETFs, and hell, index funds if you must, outperform savings on a 3 year or even less horizon. Yes, my portfolio dropped 7% this month. I’m still up 6% YTD and 13% in the last 12 months. My horizon is well over 5 years. It would be an easy wa…

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