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Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

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Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#101
For most economies, assuming positive real interest rates, the choice is between natural gas and nuclear. Solar + wind will be the cheapest, and will make up the bulk of primary production. But they won’t replace coal, natural gas, oil and nukes—not in the near term, and certainly not if we’re tooling up for EVs.

Portugal has gone gas. America will, too, in all likelihood. Both will be subsidised by countries without natural gas reserves who have decided to shun nuclear.

Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#102
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course if they had a nuclear base they wouldn't even need the natural gas plants.

Nuclear is emphatically not an instant-on hot backup. Plants take time to spool up, and very importantly time to cool down. Fukushima happened because you can't just turn a reactor off, it produces energy that has to go somewhere while the intermediate fission products decay over hours-to-days.

[deleted]

Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#103
post #96
post #75

Meaningwhile, today 17/11/2023 the same Portugal is back to the normal and emitting 170g CO2/kwh [1][2] - This is 6.8x the emissions of Sweden (25g) running on Nuclear and Hydro - This is 4.1x the emissions of France (41g) running on Nuclear, Hydro and Gas - This is 2.8x the emissions of Switzerland (59g) running on Nuclear and Hydro But still much better than "Green" Germany that reaches 647g CO2/kwh.... with 22GW o…

This source has very different numbers: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co2-per-unit-energy?count... Do you perhaps neglect to average over the whole year?

Average on the year 2022 gives similar result with a Portugal at 227g, a Sweden around 22g, France around 72g, Switzerland around 50g.[1]

Data provided by the French electrical network manager are also aligned with these estimations [2]

And other sources I am aware of also report similar numbers [3]

Are you sure your number is not also counting residential heating and not only electricity generation ?

[1] https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/PT

[2] https://www.rte-france.com/eco2mix/synthese-des-donnees?type...

[3] https://www.nowtricity.com/

Edit: quick edit with exact number for 2022.

Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#104
post #103
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This source has very different numbers: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co2-per-unit-energy?count... Do you perhaps neglect to average over the whole year?

Average on the year 2022 gives similar result with a Portugal at 227g, a Sweden around 22g, France around 72g, Switzerland around 50g.[1] Data provided by the French electrical network manager are also aligned with these estimations [2] And other sources I am aware of also report similar numbers [3] Are you sure your number is not also counting residential heating and not only electricity generation ? [1] https://app…

That wouldn't explain the 3x difference between what you report for Germany vs what Our World in Data reports for Germany.

Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#105
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Average on the year 2022 gives similar result with a Portugal at 227g, a Sweden around 22g, France around 72g, Switzerland around 50g.[1] Data provided by the French electrical network manager are also aligned with these estimations [2] And other sources I am aware of also report similar numbers [3] Are you sure your number is not also counting residential heating and not only electricity generation ? [1] https://app…

That wouldn't explain the 3x difference between what you report for Germany vs what Our World in Data reports for Germany.

> That wouldn't explain the 3x difference between what you report for Germany vs what Our World in Data reports for Germany.

The average for Germany over last year is around 486g /kwh [1]. Something similar is also reported by alternative sources [2].

I remember the estimation about Germany bumped massively when the emission about Lignite powerplant and "Green" coal powerplant were re-evaluated.

Your data is from 2021 and probably still ignore this change.

If I remember correctly: the details about how the calculation were done, and why they updated it, were described on the twitter of electricity map if you are interested.

[1] https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/DE

[2] https://www.nowtricity.com/country/germany/

Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#106

Meanwhile many Portuguese cars are 25+ years old and a portion of them have black exhaust fumes that stink from a 100 meters. As in: proper black smoke coming out of the exhaust as it drives. I don’t know if there are SMOG tests, and if there are, they’re clearly not enforced. The reality in poorer countries is that pollution reduction is not as much a priority as saving money. So yeah, I mean, I always find it funny…

So you're saying renewables are so cheap now that poor countries that only care about saving money build a ton of them? That sounds like excellent news to me.

PT used to be very energy dependent due to not having much local fossil fuel. They had to import most of it. Simultaneously, they have a lot of sun, a lot of wind, and the tide. Also turns out it’s warm so they don’t need all that much power. So yeah, renewables are optimal for them in this specific scenario. That’s definitely a positive thing.

It’s good PR but I just find it relevant to point out that it’s not necessarily an “example” beyond that. But yeah, they are getting cheaper. They’re just particularly cheap for a country with great weather and wind with low consumption.

Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#108

Note that since about 2021 renewables have overtaken fossil-based sources of energy on price. New installations of utility scale wind and solar PV are now cheaper than their alternatives. Not to mention protection from price fluctuations in the cost of fuels needed to power fossil fuel plants.

Does take in account oil taxes and renewable subsidies?

Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#109

Note that since about 2021 renewables have overtaken fossil-based sources of energy on price. New installations of utility scale wind and solar PV are now cheaper than their alternatives. Not to mention protection from price fluctuations in the cost of fuels needed to power fossil fuel plants.

Does take in account oil taxes and renewable subsidies?

You got it backwards. Fossil fuels are subsidized, 7 trillion dollars per year: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-10-16/climat...

Re: Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row

#110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does take in account oil taxes and renewable subsidies?

You got it backwards. Fossil fuels are subsidized, 7 trillion dollars per year: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-10-16/climat...

I knew somebody was going to regurgitate this.

That's if you make up some number for fossil fuel externalities and count it as a subsidy. Pollution from fossil fuels is a very real and very big issue but it has been presented in such a way that people think governments are actually giving oil companies trillions of dollars in direct subsidies. No other business has had this kind of math applied to it. The fossil fuel industry is taxed heavily from when the oil comes out of the ground to people pumping gas into their cars, it is a huge tax revenue generator.

I really want to emphasizes the "make up a number" part. Trying to understand the physical part of climate change is already a monstrous task with big uncertainty. From there trying to to estimate economic effects is basically impossible.

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