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Covid patients breathe out large amounts of virus early on

news.northwestern.edu

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Re: Covid patients breathe out large amounts of virus early on

#101

Post by terminatornet »

mcpackieh wrote: post #33
NikolaNovak wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get your perspective, but everybody has their own risk assessment and comfort, and yours is no more necessarily right than his :). Some people still wear masks, some people still take booster shots, some people people still wash their hands, some people sneeze into elbows, some people stay inside, etc. Others may not do some or any of those things. "Accept new risk" and "this is the new normal" is as validly execut…

> I get your perspective, but everybody has their own risk assessment and comfort Yeah I get that, but with him it seems very out of character. He likes to ski and is a general aviation pilot; these aren't low risk activities. I hope he comes to term with the new normal soon because he's still young and spending the rest of his life paranoid behind a mask would be truly sad.

if I was in his shoes and I'd probably be worried about getting long covid and that stopping me from skiing or piloting.

The symptoms of long covid can be pretty debilitating and a lot of people just don't get better.

> For some people, Long COVID can last weeks, months, or years after COVID-19 illness and can sometimes result in disability.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects/...

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/i...

Re: Covid patients breathe out large amounts of virus early on

#102

Post by [deleted] »

landemva wrote: post #94
taeric wrote: post #66

"We further found that levels of exhaled viral RNA increased with self-rated symptom-severity, though individual variation was high." I was curious on how high the variation was, so checked that out. There is a fairly wide swing in measurements. Not clear what that means on things. Would love to see more conversation on that. Most concerning on this, though, is "Levels of exhaled viral RNA did not differ across age,…

> I think the data was clear enough that the vaccines are worth getting Unlike like measles or polio, these misnamed 'vaccines' don't prevent getting the disease nor transmitting the virus. I think young healthy people should get the disease, recover, develop antibodies, and be done with it. We did this for chicken pox until a couple decades ago.

[deleted]

Re: Covid patients breathe out large amounts of virus early on

#103

Post by elil17 »

freitzkriesler2 wrote: post #85
elil17 wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is someone a germaphobe if they wash their hands after using the bathroom?

Is someone who argues with false equivalence making himself look like a fool?

How are they not equivalent?

Re: Covid patients breathe out large amounts of virus early on

#104

Post by taeric »

op00to wrote: post #73
taeric wrote: post #66

"We further found that levels of exhaled viral RNA increased with self-rated symptom-severity, though individual variation was high." I was curious on how high the variation was, so checked that out. There is a fairly wide swing in measurements. Not clear what that means on things. Would love to see more conversation on that. Most concerning on this, though, is "Levels of exhaled viral RNA did not differ across age,…

If you don’t get Covid because you got the vaccine, that’s a benefit to others.

Has it been shown that the vaccine keeps you from getting it?

I do think it is worth calling out my point is FAR from a panic moment. The study calls out they had very few vaccinated people, for one. For two, again, the data is clear that you are much safer for yourself if you are vaccinated.

Re: Covid patients breathe out large amounts of virus early on

#105

Post by at_a_remove »

dekhn wrote: post #51
CoastalCoder wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can someone clarify the concept of "infectious dose"? My layman's understanding is that even one virion can potentially infect someone. It's just that the odds of infection generally increase with the number of virions. (Modulo many other factors like where the virions reside, immune response, etc.) But the concept of "an infectious dose" sounds much more binary to me. EDIT:s/viron/virion/g

I'm not speaking as an authortiative individual here, but likely it's defined probabilistically in that 50% of people given a dosage show signs of infection later. See more here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimal_infective_dose

It would be nice to find some charts of what that would be for various virii.

Re: Covid patients breathe out large amounts of virus early on

#106

Post by Cupertino95014 »

notabee wrote: post #65
Cupertino95014 wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you just demonstrated is called Survivor Bias or Survivorship Bias: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias what about all the people who challenged what was "considered normal socially" and actually were proven wrong? One never hears about those.

I'm not sure what kind of strawman you're building here. Are you thinking that I'm arguing that all or even most norm-breakers are proven correct? I am arguing only that some norm breakers turn out to be prescient and thus overconfidence based on norms alone is treacherous and bound to be proven wrong at times as we learn more, and Normalcy Bias often prevents people from adequately assessing that risk. Here's anothe…

A "strawman" ? you said, "One of the first proponents for hand washing and hygiene during medical practice wound up dying in a mental asylum."

Maybe if you'd added, "of course, lots of people who wound up dying in a mental asylum are forgotten, with good reason" then I would've had nothing to say.

As it was, you cited an example as though that proved anything.

Re: Covid patients breathe out large amounts of virus early on

#107

Post by terminatornet »

dingnuts wrote: post #22
steve1977 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if he’s right?

when almost everyone has already had the disease and was able to observe what it did to them -- which is the state we're at -- it's pretty hard to say that everyone needs to protect themselves. I know what COVID will do to me, because I had it already. He's not right. I was vaccinated, and the vaccine didn't work (it didn't prevent me from getting ill, get out of here with the 'better outcomes' bullshit, I'm healthy…

> I was vaccinated, and the vaccine didn't work (it didn't prevent me from getting ill, get out of here with the 'better outcomes' bullshit

How do you know it wouldn't have been worse without vaccination?

Re: Covid patients breathe out large amounts of virus early on

#108

Post by taeric »

ralferoo wrote: post #98
taeric wrote: post #66

"We further found that levels of exhaled viral RNA increased with self-rated symptom-severity, though individual variation was high." I was curious on how high the variation was, so checked that out. There is a fairly wide swing in measurements. Not clear what that means on things. Would love to see more conversation on that. Most concerning on this, though, is "Levels of exhaled viral RNA did not differ across age,…

> I think the data was clear enough that the vaccines are worth getting. However, this seems to shatter any thoughts folks may have that they are safer to others when they are vaccinated? That's not the correct conclusion from this statement though. Taking the vaccine increases the likelihood that your immune system will be able to get kill the virus almost immediately after exposure, so that you don't start exhibiti…

I'm game to see more on that. This study specifically, shows that you can be vaccinated and get it. You will have fewer symptoms, but still shed just as much virus. That is literally what their callout was about, no?

If you are claiming that you are less likely to get it when you are vaccinated, that kind of contradicts a lot of what I've seen out there. I'm happy to learn that is mostly paranoia, though? I haven't actually followed too much there, as it doesn't seem to impact my behavior. I'll get vaccinated when eligible, just as I have done for other things for most of my life.

Re: Covid patients breathe out large amounts of virus early on

#109

Post by Cupertino95014 »

nix0n wrote: post #81
Cupertino95014 wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you just demonstrated is called Survivor Bias or Survivorship Bias: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias what about all the people who challenged what was "considered normal socially" and actually were proven wrong? One never hears about those.

> what about all the people who challenged what was "considered normal socially" and actually were proven wrong? There are not many of those, because of herd mentality. (Edit: I mean Normalcy Bias, thanks "notabee") If a person is unusual enough, they are dismissed as cranks without any sort of proof required.

This isn't even a response to anything.

notabee held up one example, which is relevant only if the argument was "everyone who challenges the norms is insane." That would be a counterexample, and only one is required.

as for "There are not many of those" I don't even know what to say. Of course those people were forgotten and there are no citations, because they weren't newsworthy. That was the whole point.

Re: Covid patients breathe out large amounts of virus early on

#110

Post by taeric »

mint2 wrote: post #96
omginternets wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And if the vaccine makes you an asymptomatic carrier, that's a harm to others. I think it's more useful to start with the question of what is actually happening, and examine the consequences from there. Otherwise, we find ourselves arguing in favor of our priors, which helps no one.

This PR article doesn’t do a good job explaining but it seems the severity was treated as an independent variable and controlled for, so with that assumption the article actually does imply vaccinated individuals shed less - yes the same amount when controlled for severity - but the cases are less severe. Why I say that is because of the two paragraphs: “”“ Mild and moderately symptomatic patients with COVID still ex…

My quote was from the study, directly.

My interpretation is basically that, to the extent that the vaccine reduces symptoms, it reduces shedding. If you still get sick, you are still shedding. If you are asymptomatic, you shed the same amount no matter your vaccination status.

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