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Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

mashable.com

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Re: Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

#101

Post by mkr-hn »

moheeb wrote: post #97
mkr-hn wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remember: Google was a search engine, and Amazon was a book store. Facebook doesn't have to stay a social network, and there are plenty of things they can do with their resources. There's a lot you can do once you have a global network of users assembled.

Like what? Chat and games are excluded, as Facebook was doing that before having a global network of users assembled.

I'm talking about the infrastructure that brings those users together, not the users themselves. They could start an AWS competitor, or anything they want.

Re: Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

#102

Post by pepdek »

aurelianito wrote: post #94
hackinthebochs wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't get why people seem to ignore this. If facebook added internet search to their site they would instantly become the second biggest provider. I would be very surprised if they weren't already working on this.

Facebook does provide Bing searches integrated into the platform.

I've never been thought; Oh I need to look up something... Let me Facebook it so they can Bing it for me.

Re: Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

#103

Post by byrneseyeview »

RuggeroAltair wrote: post #99
byrneseyeview wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google was underpriced at the IPO; there's no indication that stocks should be systematically underpriced to the same extent. Since Google went public, investors have learned a lot more about how these business models work, and how quickly they can build durable competitive advantages. If "Can it go up 5X" were the threshold for going public, investors would price this in, so the actual threshold would drop. The bull…

> If "Can it go up 5X" were the threshold for going public, investors would price this in, so the actual threshold would drop. I agree with this. All I'm saying is that most companies can in general grow, and so it depends on you whether or not you want to buy stocks. In Google case, they underestimated it. And who bought might be doing quite well right now. In Facebook case, in my opinion they aren't underestimating…

Well, yes. Facebook's IPO is unlikely to perform like one of the best-performing IPOs ever, especially since we can look back at why investors underestimated Google after that IPO.

The bull case on Facebook doesn't rely on a linear increase in the number of users; it's about an increase in the amount of revenue per user. (That's the case with Google, too; searches per year are going up at ~10% per year in the US; Google is making money by directing more of the end clicks to stuff that monetizes.)

So the people who are bullish on Facebook largely agree with you; they're just bullish based on stuff you haven't mentioned.

In finance, it's not enough to know that you disagree with the market. It's important to articulate what other people think, and why they're wrong. You can't truly say that you'd be willing to bet against the consensus unless you can explain what that consensus is.

It's a little bit like religious debates; someone like Dawkins or Dennett doesn't just have a theory of existence--they have a meta-theory explaining why other people would believe in a different explanation, and why such beliefs are compatible with their general worldview.

Re: Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

#104

Post by pepdek »

hackinthebochs wrote: post #85
pepdek wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd like to add to your list of Facebook products. * Facebook Search Engine.

I don't get why people seem to ignore this. If facebook added internet search to their site they would instantly become the second biggest provider. I would be very surprised if they weren't already working on this.

100% true. They'll unveil it soon enough. I bet it's Zuck's ace-in-the-hole.

Re: Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

#105

Post by pepdek »

ajkessler wrote: post #90
gojomo wrote: post #88

The S-1 filing will almost certainly contain enough info to allow my bets with jacquesm and il , that Facebook's revenues would reach $2B/yr by 2014, to settle (2 years early!): http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=689993 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1163144 Would still be happy to take $200 in Facebook stock instead. :)

Revenue is (estimated at) already over $4b a year: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-20/facebook-revenue-wi...

This is the IPO PR tour. Similar to Groupon's hype and retreat.

Re: Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

#106

Post by RuggeroAltair »

mkr-hn wrote: post #54
RuggeroAltair wrote: post #28

Well, honestly I think that buying Facebook shares right now is a high risk move. While it is possible maybe to forecast some ups and downs in the immediate following days, if the evaluation actually goes to 100 billions it'd look scary to me. I'm not saying that Facebook is dying or that it's gonna die anytime soon, but I am not able to foresee any significant growth. The article compared, with sort of negative term…

Remember: Google was a search engine, and Amazon was a book store. Facebook doesn't have to stay a social network, and there are plenty of things they can do with their resources. There's a lot you can do once you have a global network of users assembled.

Sure, although, there is one thing that bothers me, Facebook reaches so many people so quickly that even reasonably big companies now use a Facebook page instead of a website. There is something intrinsically wrong with this, because Facebook cannot (hopefully) become a synonym of internet.

I'm cool with iPad apps, with iPhone apps and Android apps, but stopping using websites and just focus on Facebook apps seems to be a false step, maybe good for now, but not very envisioning. Unless...

...unless Facebook starts mutating towards an actual product. To be clear like the blackberry with the old blackberry chat, you'll buy one (of the many) Facebook things, like a Facebook pad, and you'll have your Facebook OS with all the Facebook apps running on it.

And I think this is the direction they are headed to... but still, they can't take down the house (the whole world), sooner or later something else will need to put some checks and balances.

They can't become infinitely rich, I don't think the market and the planet will allow it. They can be a little dominant, but not like emperor dominant.

Plus, it's still a website based on participation, if the people get bored or there is some wikileaks kinda breach (think of some crazy attempt to make public all the private messages and pictures on a mirror evil site), many many users could leave is a second... (although ultimately we are just going to be forced to redefine what we consider privacy, in general, not just in this unlikely case)

Re: Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

#107

Post by moheeb »

mkr-hn wrote: post #101
moheeb wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like what? Chat and games are excluded, as Facebook was doing that before having a global network of users assembled.

I'm talking about the infrastructure that brings those users together, not the users themselves. They could start an AWS competitor, or anything they want.

In that case they could have done all that before having the "global network of users assembled".

Re: Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

#108

Post by mkr-hn »

moheeb wrote: post #107
mkr-hn wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm talking about the infrastructure that brings those users together, not the users themselves. They could start an AWS competitor, or anything they want.

In that case they could have done all that before having the "global network of users assembled".

Ignore that part if it helps you focus on the point.

Re: Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

#109

Post by jlarocco »

amirmc wrote: post #74
albertsun wrote: post #67

Why is this a link to Mashable when all the reporting work and original information is from the Wall Street Journal? http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020457370457718...

I can see the Mashable article but I can't see the WSJ article (presumably because I'm not a subscriber).

That's odd. I can read the entire WSJ article, and I'm not a subscriber either. However, if I click links to other articles about half the time I only get the first paragraph.

Re: Facebook to File for IPO Next Week

#110

Post by gojomo »

pepdek wrote: post #105
ajkessler wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Revenue is (estimated at) already over $4b a year: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-20/facebook-revenue-wi...

This is the IPO PR tour. Similar to Groupon's hype and retreat.

I'll bet you that with Facebook, there's no Groupon-like 50%-restatement. To be more concrete, between first and final S-1, I'll say no more than a 5% restatement of revenues in the downward direction. Facebook is not in the same panicked 'damn the torpedos' rush as Groupon was.
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